Weekly Twitter Observations
Each week I will be walking through the Twitterverse extracting some of the best commentary from trusted fantasy football minds. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis.
Quotes of the Week
Even though fantasy leagues ended at the conclusion of the regular season, the NFL playoffs and eventual Super Bowl provided daily leaguers and fans to stay connected. One of the best Super Bowls in recent memory also provided some great takes and quotes in the wake of an entertaining contest.
John displayed why it is never good to start talking trash in the midst of a close game (a lesson Richard Sherman will likely never learn)
Hey, Revis… pic.twitter.com/obyV16lE3k
— Rummy (@RumfordJohnny) February 2, 2015
ESPN NFL Nation reporter Rich Cimini also found a clever way to turn the excessive coverage surrounding Marshawn Lynch and the shocking final play call by the Seahawks into one short quip.
Now Marshawn Lynch knows what it feels like to be ignored. #SB49
— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) February 2, 2015
Chris Matthews, WR SEA
[inlinead]Aside from the final interception that sealed the New England Patriots’ Super Bowl win, another surprising aspect of the game emerged in the form of wide receiver Chris Matthews. Matthews was originally signed by the Cleveland Browns in 2011 as an undrafted free agent but never made it through training camp before being released. In 2012 he was a star in the Canadian Football League, but unfortunately suffered an injury that allowed him to start only four games the following season. He was released by the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (great name) and then ended up on the practice squad of the Seahawks this past season. Despite Seattle’s apparent need for wide receiver talent, Matthews never was incorporated into the game plan until the biggest game of the year. So was Chris Matthews just a flash in the pan or an unknown gimmick that New England was not ready for, or could he actually carve out a productive role in the NFL? During the game Cian Fahey tweeted,
Matthews is a big dude, obviously, but his three catches have been a result of very impressive ball skills.
— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) February 2, 2015
On his touchdown reception just before the half I felt like Matthews perfectly high-pointed the ball while using his body to block out the defender. If nothing else Seattle could use a red zone target like Matthews next season. Currently Matthews’ fantasy value would be tough to predict, but the road to opportunity with the Seahawks is not too daunting and stashing him could pay off sooner than later.
Travis Kelce, TE KC
Throughout 2014 as the Chiefs offense sputtered along with Alex Smith and conservative playing calling, the fantasy community clamored for tight end Travis Kelce to be “released.” A guy dubbed by some as “baby Gronk” with a great combination of size and speed should be the center piece of any offense, particularly one with such glaring deficiencies at the wide receiver position. Early on coach Andy Reid kept Kelce on a short leash, but finally gave him more time as 4for4.com’s John Paulsen noted,
Travis Kelce averaged 54% of the snaps from W1-W10, 86% from W11 on. 4for4’s Snap App: pic.twitter.com/q5LpM8Y8sl
— John Paulsen (@4for4_John) January 30, 2015
Travis Kelce finished 8th in standard and 6th in PPR, but was 4th and 5th respectively from W10 on. Where does he go in ’15? 3-5 range?
— John Paulsen (@4for4_John) January 30, 2015
Over the first eight games of the season Anthony Fasano out-snapped Travis 483 to 273. In the second half Kelce garnered significantly more playing time more than doubling Fasano’s snaps. Despite a 50% increase in total snaps, Kelce managed one less target, three more catches, 24 more yards and three less touchdowns over the final eight games. His rise up the ranks of fantasy tight ends the second half of the year was due more to guys like Larry Donnell, Julius Thomas and Martellus Bennett falling off their great starts rather than Kelce raising his game. I agree with John that Kelce is probably the fourth or fifth ranked tight end in dynasty or redraft leagues. The problem is that I am not sold his production will be all that different from guys ranked 10th through 12th either. Fasano is still signed for two more years and will continue to steal red zone looks despite dwindling snaps. One would also imagine that Smith will eventually throw a touchdown to a receiver continuing to limit Kelce’s upside. My strategy moving forward will be to focus on grabbing multiple, cheaper tight end options or make an all-out play for Rob Gronkowski.
Jerick McKinnon, RB MIN
Pro Football Focus’ Mike Clay shared some data and advice this past week around the Vikings’ Jerick McKinnon.
2014 YPC Leaders (min 100 att): Forsett, Charles, Hill, L Miller, Foster, MCKINNON, Stewart, Lacy, Lynch, Bell, Anderson, D Murray
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) January 30, 2015
Wanted to highlight McKinnon because he ran the ball pretty well but went down with injury. Buy low where possible.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) January 30, 2015
McKinnon had a fairly productive rookie campaign but was most likely an afterthought for most fantasy owners. Adrian Peterson was grabbing headlines for the wrong reasons and everyone continued to track all year whether he would or would not be allowed to play. Matt Asiata also continued to jump into the spotlight as his ability to find the end zone in bunches made him a maddening player to predict from week to week. Between weeks four (the first game when provided any opportunity) through twelve (before he got hurt) McKinnon played his role and put up numbers on a team lacking a stellar offense. Mike mentioned the 4.8 yards per carry that bested Asiata’s 3.5 easily. During this stretch he also received a 65% share of the carries and also saw more targets in the receiving game. His speed and strength were both on display at times, but it was the inability to never find the end zone that pushes him to the back of our fantasy minds. I would not expect AP back with the Vikings who would likely want to move forward with their younger core of players and avoid the public’s ire in addition to the sizeable contract he carries. This would leave McKinnon as the current likely starter in 2015. At this time I would rather target Jerick over other backs like Christine Michael, Terrance West, CJ Spiller and even AP.
Drafting Fantasy Running Backs
Graham Barfield shared an interesting graph displaying where the top 30 fantasy running backs were drafted on average in 2014.
The 2014 top-30 FF running backs represented by round drafted in the NFL draft: pic.twitter.com/Bnmtjv2Gh9
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) January 31, 2015
This clearly applies to redraft leagues but continues to highlight the point that fantasy production amongst running backs is much easier to replace than at any other position. Building a lineup around a core of stud receivers and a solid quarterback is definitely my strategy while trying to stock pile numerous running backs with potential to breakout. In 2014 piecing together running backs such as Justin Forsett, Mark Ingram, Fred Jackson and Joique Bell could have easily produced enough fantasy points when paired with solid, dependable receivers and a quarterback to win championships. As the NFL moves away from true workhorse running back situations, so should your fantasy teams.
Ryan Williams, RB DAL
One player to keep an eye on is newly signed Cowboys running back Ryan Williams. Williams was originally drafted in the second round of the 2011 draft by the Arizona Cardinals. After an injury during the preseason he missed the entire 2011 campaign. In 2012 he appeared in five games, but knee and shoulder injuries made 2012 and 2013 lost years as well. In 2014 he was signed by the Cowboys and impressed during preseason games, but eventually was released and signed to the practice squad. One interesting thing to note when evaluating Williams was that he actually had numerous teams attempting to sign him to their starting rosters in 2014. Williams turned all the offers and money down to remain with the Cowboys. Rotoworlder’s Evan Silva and Raymond Summerlin weighed in on Williams this past week saying,
Ryan Williams was impressive in preseason and would have a great shot to beat out Joseph Randle if the Cowboys go in-house to replace Murray
— Raymond Summerlin (@RMSummerlin) January 29, 2015
#Cowboys deal with Ryan Williams hints they are high on him. Still only 24yo. Guy to monitor this offseason with DeMarco Murray entering FA.
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) January 29, 2015
Even if the Cowboys hang on to Murray it is assumed the new two year deal offered to Ryan could mean that Lance Dunbar could be on his way out and Williams would be on the active roster ready to contribute in 2015. If Murray is gone though, Williams could find himself in a great situation he clearly wanted to remain in and start producing for your fantasy squads in the near future.
Special call out to Pro Football Focus’ Premium Stats for providing a great tool to pull some of the data and information in this article.
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Luke practically owns the Twitter machine at @FFGator
- Weekly Twitter Observations - April 2, 2016
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- Weekly Twitter Observations - March 11, 2016
