Transcend it Like Beckham

Giants rookie receiver Odell Beckham Jr. is likely to be the most talked about dynasty asset this off-season, a trend that has already begun in our own forums (see here, here and here – and that’s just the first page). This is with good reason, of course, as following a hamstring injury OBJ took the league by storm with a combination of highlight plays and consistently robust box scores. The lingering question, however, is what can we expect from the twelfth pick of the 2014 NFL Draft moving forward?

Background

As I alluded to above, Beckham’s numbers were amongst some of the most remarkable in the league, a feat made all the more impressive considering he missed New York’s opening quartet of games. To put this into a quantitative context, consider the table below:

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*Amongst players with at least 90 targets

                  **Amongst the PPR Top-25 receivers

Once again, despite playing in only three-quarters of the seasonal slate, Beckham produced top-10 numbers in terms of receptions, yards and touchdowns, while finishing 15^th in targets. Beckham’s 14.3 YPC also showed an ability to function as more than just a short-to-intermediate threat, as this figure was 20^th in the league amongst receivers with at least 90 targets. Combined with a catch percentage of 68.9%, Beckham nearly surpassed the mythical 10.0 yards-per-target (YPT) barrier, falling behind only Jordy Nelson, Emmanuel Sanders, Randall Cobb, TY Hilton and DeSean Jackson amongst the PPR top-25 receivers.

Not shockingly these numbers culminated in a high-end fantasy finish, with Beckham concluding the 2014 season as the overall PPR WR7. Even more striking, his 24.8 PPR points-per-game (PPG) lapped the field, and were 1.2 PPG higher than that of the next closest player (Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown). All told, it was a truly trend-smashing campaign.

Prior Rookie Expectations

The final statement of the last paragraph rings even more true when we put Beckham under the same magnifying glass as the top fantasy rookie receivers of the past 10 years. To that point, consider the following table, which highlights the disparity between Beckham’s 2014 fantasy finish and those of freshman pass catchers prior:

Dating back to 2005, no other rookie finished the year as a PPR WR1 (assuming a 12-team league). In fact, only four of the receivers listed above finished within 10 spots of Beckham, with all of the above unable to best mid-range WR2 status. Though it’s apparent it’s taking less time for the NFL’s freshmen to integrate themselves into the weekly game plan, this is nevertheless eye opening.

A Historical Perspective

The main driving force behind Beckham’s fantasy barrage was the rate at which he accumulated yardage. To that point, his 108.8 receiving yards per game have only been bested four times in NFL History – Charley Hennigan (1961), Isaac Bruce (1995), Jerry Rice (1995) and most recently Calvin Johnson (2012). Continuing, as a 23 year old sophomore, only Bruce was able to match Beckham’s output at roughly the same age and tenure, rendering OBJ’s 2014 production as very nearly devoid of equivalence.

A Rarefied AIR

As can be surmised from the aggregate of the above, the name of Beckham’s game can be summed up in one word – efficiency. To that point, I’ve previously created and utilized the Adjusted Improvement Ratio (AIR) metric to discern exactly how efficient a pass catcher is, as well as what he brings to his respective offense. Thus far I’ve utilized AIR to summarize the 2013 PPR WR1 grouping, assess the 2013 rookies and also attempt to redefine the term “volume dependency” – I now want to use this metric to explain Beckham’s dominance on a relative level.

As a reminder, AIR can be calculated by dividing a player’s percentage of his team’s PPR points by his percentage of the team’s targets. Expected production should hover around a ratio of 1.00, while better than expected and worse than expected output will fall above or below that quantifier, respectively. The table below breaks down Beckham’s 2014 numbers in just that fashion:

Simply put, Beckham’s AIR of 1.34 is mind-bogglingly stellar. The only 2013 rookie to match this value was the Saints’ Kenny Stills, who only accrued 7.83% of his team’s targets, functioning largely as a deep-ball specialist – while impressive, it’s akin to apples and oranges as it relates to Beckham’s ball-hogging ways. In a similar vein, none of the AIR values for 2013’s top-25 PPR receivers, save for Josh Gordon’s 1.35, topped Beckham’s 2014 ratio. Even the “Big Six” receivers failed to match Beckham’s rookie year success, as evidenced below (note that Brown wasn’t included, as he only had 19 targets in year one):

In fact, the only rookie AIR value I’ve charted that actually bested Beckham’s came from Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski, whose 2010 ratio of 1.41 is the highest I’ve ever recorded. Of course, when healthy Gronkowski is a legitimate all-time great at the position, and arguably the NFL’s most dominant positional player. Applying lateral thinking, this ultimately begs the question – how does Beckham’s 2014 rookie season stack up against the previous rookie standard?

Is Moss Still the Boss?

As a rookie in 1998, Minnesota receiver Randy Moss put forward what was, and according to many still is, the gold standard for freshman production. In his initial campaign Moss corralled 69 receptions for 1,313 yards and a whopping 17 touchdowns, good for a total 302.3 PPR points. But within the scope of his prolific Vikings offense, was Moss actually more efficient than Beckham?

While Moss’ season remains one for the ages, his effectiveness was actually trumped by that of Beckham. Though Moss had the edge in touchdowns and yards, Beckham’s advantage in receptions and catch percentage ultimately helped him win the year. This is made even more impressive by the fact Moss had a Hall of Fame running mate in Cris Carter (78/1,011/12) to deflect defensive attention, while OBJ was saddled with a supporting cast “highlighted” by Rueben Randle and Larry Donnell. Though this helps to explain why Moss might have had a tougher time lapping his compatriots, it also shows Beckham flourished despite functioning as the focal point of his opponents’ designs.

Cause for Concern?

Any time a player puts forward a statistically historical season, the first term that springs to mind is “regression.” When the qualifiers of said player’s campaign include such descriptors as “best rookie season ever” and “top-five per-game receiving output,” the potential for drop-off appears even more likely. But apart from expected natural reversion, are their truly any tangible causes for concern?

The biggest factor could be a declining market share should fellow wide-out Victor Cruz return healthy. After Cruz went down in a week six clash with the Eagles, Beckham amassed a likely unsustainable 30.1% of Eli Manning’s targets, establishing himself as the quarterback’s best friend. Over this timeframe Beckham averaged 12.3 targets per game, which would equate to 197 looks over a 16-game season – even on a high-volume passing offense it would be foolish to expect this to occur.

Otherwise there are no discernable warning signs. Beginning with an early November tilt with the Colts, Beckham tallied at least six receptions in every remaining game, while recording at least 90 yards in said contests. This speaks both to a high floor, as well as an elite ceiling.

Continuing, Beckham didn’t rely upon a preponderance of unsustainable long touchdowns for fantasy production (a la Cruz in 2011). OBJ did have and 80-yard touchdown and a 63-yard touchdown, but those would go down as his only 50+ yard scoring plays. Those two plays resulted in 9.5% of his yearly PPR point totals, meaning the vast majority of his scoring resulted from repeatable actions.

Finally, though Beckham did score 12 touchdowns on only 132 targets, his percentage of PPR points from crossing the goal line fell at a maintainable 24.2%. Though this stands on the high end of the spectrum, it’s roughly in line with the scoring dependence of superstar receivers such as Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall and Calvin Johnson. Though this is yet another burden of repeatability, it’s not enough of a worry to automatically downgrade the young pass catcher.

Conclusion

I believe the totality of the above essentially shows both sides of the argument. On one hand, Beckham put forward a season for the ages, which inherently causes us to question whether or not he can replicate it with future efforts. On the other side of the coin, said historical season was achieved by a 21-year old rookie receiver who functioned as his team’s only real threat, and doesn’t carry with him any intrinsic warning signs suggestive of a decline in production.

All told, this begs the most important question of the matter – how should we value Beckham moving forward?

On a recent episode of the DLF Podcast, guest Chris Wesseling of NFL.com and former Rotoworld fame opined that he views Beckham as a top talent at the position, and would select him with the first pick in a dynasty draft. In my personal rankings I’ve listed OBJ seventh amongst all receivers, as well as just outside the top tier – right or wrong, I want to see him prove it for one more year before I endorse him as a top positional option. Regardless, one thing we can all agree upon is that simply by virtue of having this debate, Odell Beckham Jr. has already transcended any of our previous expectations.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.

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