The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

forsett

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

  1. What is Justin Forsett’s value now that Marc Trestman is the offensive coordinator in Baltimore? Does this help or hurt his value? I’m hoping for Matt Forte-like numbers next year, is that realistic? Also, do you think any team will sign Ray Rice, and if so, what team do you think might chance the PR nightmare?Ramrusher in NV

2014 breakout running back Justin Forsett would seem to have the desired characteristics for a Marc Trestman system. He runs efficiently, he was rated as a plus-blocker according to Pro Football Focus and, perhaps most importantly, he can catch passes. There is, however, one major impediment potentially precluding this match made in heaven – Forsett currently isn’t a Raven.

Forsett only signed a one-year contract with Baltimore, and as such the 2014 PPR RB8 is currently free to sign with whichever team he wants. Recent rumors have suggested he wants to return, but that will undoubtedly be contingent upon the Ravens’ offer. It’s important to remember Forsett is a 29-year old running back who has never procured a big contract – this could very well be his last chance to cash in.

Should he return, I see no reason to not slot him right back in as a RB1 for 2015. The waters could get muddier if Baltimore drafts a running back early, or if they choose to give impressive rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro more opportunity, but it would be tough to ignore what Forsett accomplished this year. My only hesitance in asserting he’d perform like Chicago’s Matt Forte is the fact the Ravens are a much more complete team than the Bears, and as such the offensive design could differ based upon the team’s weekly success.

[inlinead]With regards to the currently exiled Ray Rice, all I can really say is people love a redemption story. Though Rice had a down 2013, he reportedly cut weight and was looking good last preseason – a team that has both strong leadership and a need at the position could sign him as a backup or third down ball carrier. It’s truly impossible to speculate which team that might be, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Rice back in uniform come 2015.

  1. San Diego has one of the messier backfields going into 2015. How do you see this thing shaking out next year?Thomas in CA

I believe any prognostication of the San Diego backfield is going to hinge on two main factors. First, what is going to happen with impending free agent Ryan Mathews? Secondly, how will the Chargers approach the draft?

Speaking to the first point, it was apparent the Chargers coaching staff viewed Mathews as their primary ball carrier when he was available. During his six healthy games Mathews received 83 touches, while backup Branden Oliver recorded only 28. In fact, when Mathews returned in a mid-November clash against division rival Oakland, he immediately slotted in as the team’s RB1, out-touching Oliver the next four games before getting hurt again.

Of course, the larger issue in the paragraph above is Mathews’ sordid injury history – during his five years in the league he’s only played 14 or more games twice, while missing 20 total contests. This could be taken one of two ways – the Chargers will be eager to rid themselves of their perpetually hurt ball carrier, or they could attempt to sign him on the cheap. Given the current running back market, as well as the deep incoming class, Mathews might very well find out that the staying home represents his best option.

Should that happen, I’d expect him to remain the starter, with Oliver as his backup and the returning Danny Woodhead as the third-down maven. “Dammit” Donald Brown could and should be cut, and Ronnie Brown is more than likely gone as well. This would likely represent the most clear-cut scenario.

However, if Mathews goes elsewhere, I’d expect the Chargers to satisfy their needs through either free agency or the draft. While Oliver looked good initially, he eventually slowed down and only averaged 3.6 YPC on the season. He makes for a great backup or bye-week fill-in, but it’s more than likely the San Diego brass would prefer and upgrade.

  1. Is it really time to sell Calvin Johnson? With all these rookie receivers blowing up should I look to cash out?Matt in NY

Lost in the overall brilliance of the 2014 rookie class, the continued breakouts of Antonio Brown and Demaryius Thomas and the resurgence of Julio Jones was a simple fact – “old guard” Calvin Johnson was still pretty darn good this year! I’ve heard the arguments against – he missed three games due to injury and was just a decoy in two more, and yes, he recently turned 29. But we’re talking about a legitimately historical player who has dominated the game in a way we haven’t seen since Randy Moss.

To that last point, Megatron was still the PPR WR16 despite missing three games. Digging deeper, if we factor out his two “decoy” games versus the Jets and Bills, his weekly line stood at a robust 6.2/96.2/0.7, good for an average of 20.0 PPR points. This number would’ve seen Johnson ranked as the PPR WR6 on the year, just ahead of Dallas’ Dez Bryant.

Suffice it to say, the “old man” still has it – the injuries certainly hurt, but he’s not a player I’d advocate selling low on simply because of his age, or because of how some of the league’s youngsters stepped up in 2014. I currently have him ranked as my dynasty WR6 and a tier-one receiver, and would much rather be a buyer than a seller right now.

  1. What do you make of DeSean Jackson’s future? Chip Kelly definitely helped him but he looked pretty good last year. Are you buying or selling?Roger in PA

When it comes to Washington receiver DeSean Jackson, the predominant opinion prior to the 2014 season was that the Chip Kelly system made him who he was. While it’s true he established career highs in targets, yards and receptions, much of that was on the strength of his own natural ability. To that point, even despite the ridiculously efficient performance by the Philly quarterbacks in 2013, I utilized my AIR metric to discover D-Jax still largely exceeded expectations.

It was for that reason I didn’t completely panic when he left the Eagles and joined the division rival Redskins. Yes, the coaching was a significantly bigger question mark, and of course the quarterbacking represented a drop-off. But more often than not, when I evaluate players I look at their own individual ability first, and everything else second.

It should therefore come as no surprise that Jackson was a useful fantasy asset in 2014, despite the dumpster fire that was the Redskins offense. He finished the season as the PPR WR23, but more importantly it was his efficiency that again set him apart from his peers. In fact, all 22 of the receivers who outscored him had at least 20 more targets than Jackson’s 95 looks. Continuing, even despite that disparity he still had more receiving yards than ten of the players above him. Simply put, he was every bit the breakout receiver he was the year prior.

Because of this I’m firmly in the buyer’s camp. It’s more than likely he can be had for a late first round pick at the most, and in some instances perhaps even for a second rounder (depending on the scope of the outbreak of Rookie Fever in your league). For a receiver who has proven WR1 ability and has eclipsed 900 receiving yards in five of his six years in the league, that’s a bargain – at only 28 years of age it wouldn’t surprise me to see Jackson keep this up for years to come, regardless of his team or offensive system.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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eric hardter