Dynasty Debate: Donte Moncrief

Brian Bulmer

moncrief

The dynasty off-season is a great time to evaluate rosters and make moves to put our teams in better position moving forward. Identifying the next big breakout player makes us smarter than our leaguemates, but also puts us in better position to take home the title of fantasy champion.

The 2014 crop of rookie wide recievers put up unprecedented numbers. Donte Moncrief may have been lost in the shuffle as many of his classmates passed him by and were the title of many headlines throughout the fantasy season. Moncrief is in a great situation and has all the potential to be the next dynasty stud. However, drafting on potential can be a double-edged sword.

In this dynasty debate, we take a look at the good and the bad inn regards to Moncrief. We hope to give dynasty owners more perspective on how we view him as a player and what we believe the future holds for the former Ole Miss Rebel.

Enjoy!

Luke’s Good News

Donte Moncrief came out of Ole Miss after his junior season being a three year starter for the Rebels. At 6’2” and 220 pounds, his size made him an immediate target for NFL teams. At the NFL combine he was top three in the 40-yard dash, vertical and broad jumps amongst wide receivers. Based on college and combine metrics, one site ranked Moncrief’s athleticism in the 97th percentile for wide receivers and drew comparisons to Andre Johnson.  His burst off the line and vertical speed to stretch defenses were top takeaways from scouts. On the negative side, despite a larger frame he was not seen as a guy who would outmuscle defenders to break free in the open field or grab jump balls.

[inlinead]In a season where so many rookie wide receivers became weekly staples in fantasy lineups, and even carried some teams to championships (Odell Beckham, Jr.), the Colts’ Moncrief remained mostly an afterthought.   Mainly this was due to 14-year veteran Reggie Wayne and number one stud T.Y. Hilton starting over him, but even Hakeem Nicks saw more snaps and targets over the course of the season. Donte showed flashes of his ability in week eight registering seven catches for 113 yards and a touchdown and then again in week 13 with three catches for 134 yards and two scores. The rest of his games though were mostly outside of the top 40 receivers on a given week.

Clearly, Donte Moncrief has the tools and potential to be a top playmaker, but the main question many have is why he did not contribute more in his first season. Pro Football Focus ranks players on multiple metrics centered around the whole player and not just simply putting up stats. Out of 110 qualifying receivers, Moncrief came in at 29 for the year compared to ranks of 105th and 106th for Nicks and Wayne. So while he appeared to contribute more to the offense when on the field, the coaches continued to play him as the WR4. Maybe they valued bringing rookies along slowly or he did not catch on as quickly as hoped. Keep in mind though that this was the same coaching staff that continued to roll out Trent Richardson despite all his ineffectiveness. But as the coaching staff finally realized TRich was not the answer, Moncrief out-snapped Nicks over the second half of the season.

Looking ahead to next year, the path to playing time appears much clearer. Both Wayne and Hakeem Nicks are unrestricted free agents. Wayne has already mentioned he wants to return to the Colts in 2015. Even if he does return, coming off a torn ACL and triceps along with a myriad of other bumps and bruises, I cannot see his role being anything more than third string and situational player. Nicks will still be only 27 (feels like 37) and could get a second chance with the Colts, but again looking at performance numbers from this season Moncrief should start opposite Hilton. You also have one of the best quarterbacks throwing him the ball in Andrew Luck.

Donte Moncrief does not enter his second season with the already proven fantasy stats of the aforementioned Beckham, Mike Evans or Kelvin Benjamin. He does though have a top tier quarterback who threw for the third most attempts in 2014 unlike the unknown quarterback situation of a player like Sammy Watkins. His competition for playing time does not appear as difficult when compared to fellow rookie Davante Gardner. His individual metrics and physical attributes scream NFL receiver and his age (will turn 22 in August) is another added bonus. For me, there are too many pluses and I would currently rank him at 25th amongst all receivers in dynasty.

Brian’s Cold Water

Moncrief has all of the physical traits of a stud WR1. He landed in an incredible situation with an opportunity to grow alongside young quarterback Andrew Luck and fellow wide receiver TY Hilton. He also has a great mentor in six-time pro bowler Reggie Wayne. What’s not to like?

Risk versus Reward.

In the December DLF Mock Drafts, Moncrief’s ADP was pick 3.07. Outside of potential, what has Moncrief proven in the NFL to justify such a high pick in a dynasty startup? Let me remind dynasty owners that potential can lead many owners down a road of losses and sadness. Cordarrelle Patterson was a dynasty darling last offseason with a January ADP of pick 2.06. He is also a very raw physical specimen, but also has undeniable potential. Teddy Bridgewater created great chemistry with wide receiver Charles Johnson (also a physical specimen) and left Patterson taking up roster space and offering limited rewards to dynasty owners.

Moncrief is so raw. He has questionable hands, needs to work on his route running, and needs to play up to his size. These are the arguments against Moncrief from draft analysts like Mel Kiper Jr., Todd McShay, and Mike Mayock. The 2014 class has an unprecedented group of wide receiving talent that put up gaudy numbers all year long. This special group pushed a raw talent like Donte Moncrief down draft boards and into the laps of the Indianapolis Colts. This opened the door to potential production and long term opportunity for Moncrief on a team with a special quarterback.

The Colts rookie has proven to have reliable hands with a 5.88% drop rate – this is ranked 34th among all NFL wide receivers according to ProFootballFocus.com. This compared to fellow teammate TY Hilton’s drop rate of 5.75. To be fair, the Colts led the way in drop rate this season. Moncrief did see less than 50% of the team’s snaps this season so a lot of that falls on the veterans in front of him on the depth chart. He does allow the ball to get to his chest more often than not. #FeedMoncrief caught more than half of his passes (51%) this season close to his numbers rather than his hands. He often opens his hand like a low ball catch to trap the ball to the numbers rather than catching and tucking the football. This is obviously something he can be coached up on and I look for him to improve. This is definitely something for dynasty owners to take note on at this point in his young career.

One of the knocks on Moncrief has been his ability to make plays inside the numbers and that he was raw as a route runner. Over the course of the season Moncrief ran the entire route tree and grew as a route runner. He caught 68% of his passes between the hashes and ran several possession routes including a high percentage of screens, slants, curls, and digs. He high points the ball really well and did a better job of using his big body to screen defenders on curls and slants. His ability to grow as a route runner and an entire offseason with Andrew Luck should help his production, but again we can only speculate that he will put up better numbers.

As a Colts fan, I love Moncrief and his potential. He has shown growth as a wide receiver and the Colts are developing his skills and allowing him to come along slowly. At this point in his young career he is working against single coverage and learning the system. He is growing and developing, and he continues to get better alongside his young teammates. Is he worth his current ADP? If he is the only risk I am taking in the draft it is possible that I pull the trigger and then get a couple veterans later in the draft to give me immediate production. He has all the physical attributes that dynasty owners look for in a WR1.

Still, it is difficult to forget Cordarrelle Patterson.

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