The Dynasty Doctor: Todd Gurley’s Injury

Scott Peak Posted On January 24, 2015

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The off-season is here, and it’s time for drama to unfold. This is the time when small stories are told in a much bigger way, and the line between fact and fiction is blurred. Maybe it’s a general manager who covets a player and accentuates small negatives with hopes of landing them at a better price. It could be a national media that isn’t shy about stretching the truth to improve ratings and sell more magazines. It is imperative for dynasty players to go with their instinct and block out the noise. Eddie Lacy and Keenan Allen are two such examples. The way national media reported Lacy’s toe injury and Allen’s posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) sprain, it’s no wonder both players fell too far in most rookie drafts. I read reports criticizing Allen for a slow 40 time, yet no mention of his PCL injury and rehabilitation for it that likely adversely impacted his performance – this is precisely why I am interested in how the dynasty world portrays Todd Gurley’s injury situation in the next few months.

Gurley had two significant injuries in college, a high-ankle sprain in 2013 and a torn anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) in 2014. Both were legitimate injuries that any football player could suffer in a game. In 2013, Gurley was tackled out-of-bounds and the defender stepped on his foot, bending it in such a way that is classic for a high-ankle sprain. There was no way Gurley could have avoided this injury, and it was a combination of bad luck and inherent risk in playing a game that is violent in nature. The ACL injury was a non-contact injury, as can often happen with these injuries. Gurley planted on his left leg, it bent inward, in a valgus-type motion, and that placed stress on the ACL leading to its rupture. This is another injury that was a combination of bad luck and inherent risk with the sport. Yet, there is talk that Gurley is “injury prone” and his stock could drop because of it. But is it wise for dynasty players to follow suit and let him drop in rookie drafts?

[inlinead]As an 18-year old freshman with the Georgia Bulldogs, he rushed for over 100 yards in nine out of his first 14 games. Notably, he didn’t miss a game as a freshman. His opponents included Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama and Nebraska. He scored 17 touchdowns in 2012. Calling those numbers impressive is an understatement. In 2013, Gurley had four 100+ yard rushing games, and increased his reception totals to 37, including 10 against Auburn. He had 16 touchdowns despite missing three games to injury. In fact, Gurley had 100+ total yards 8 out of 10 games in 2013. He showed no drop-off in production once he returned from his high-ankle sprain, dropping 187 total yards and 2 touchdowns on Florida. In 2014, He had 100+ yards rushing 5 out of 6 total games. Clearly, when Gurley is on the field, his production cannot be questioned.

Gurley missed four games in 2014 after the NCAA suspended him for taking a few hundred dollars to autograph various sports collectibles. Gurley was allegedly paid $400 for autographing these items. It is against NCAA rules, but the NFL is a different business model. Do owners of NFL franchises really care that a college player took $400 to sell a few autographs? I doubt it. I tend to highly value character when adding players to my dynasty teams, and I sold Josh Gordon two years ago for those reasons. I don’t take players with a checkered past lightly. Still, I think the Gurley scandal was a tad overstated by the media. Yeah, it was probably not smart by Gurley. He should’ve known that taking money for autographs was against the rules, and would put his team at risk for sanctions by the NCAA. I do think Gurley deserves criticism for not considering his teammates before he made the decision to blatantly violate NCAA rules. Then again, I remember eating a bag of popcorn for dinner in medical school when I ran out of money and had nothing to eat in my apartment. These are situations that aren’t so cut-and-dried, and the media tends to vilify players, exaggerate impropriety, and take extreme positions to garner attention while not caring about the damage being done to an athlete’s reputation. Once again, does the NFL really care that Gurley signed a few pieces of memorabilia for $400? Not a chance. Just a guess, but some might be laughing that the NCAA suspended a player for taking money that doesn’t even qualify for a bottle of fancy champagne that rookies get hazed for each year in the NFL. As a dynasty player, am I really going to buy the media-driven character assassination of Gurley and drop him down my draft board? Nope. But I hope others will so I can get him at a tremendous value.

I’m no scout, but as a fan of football, I watched video of Gurley in action. I see a player with good speed for his large size. Gurley showed good vision, could accelerate quickly and had a second gear in open field, often out-running defensive backs to the end zone. He showed elite ability against top competition, and looked like the best player on the field. Gurley showed well as a receiver, and is a willing blocker. Gurley is a three-down running back, fits the NFL game very well, and has elite ability to play in the NFL for a long time. There is talk about NFL devaluing running backs, but Gurley is an elite talent capable of playing in all situations. I see Gurley as an exception to the rule, he is simply too talented to be discounted. Elite players should be treated the same, regardless of position.

Is the ACL an issue? Yes. Should it drop his stock? It might, but I think that would be a mistake. Players with his skill-set don’t come along often. He is worth the risk, even if it means the 2015 season doesn’t meet expectations. He will be three months removed from the ACL injury by the NFL Combine, and it seems unlikely that he will be participating much beyond interviews. At three months, ACL rehabilitation may involve jogging and straight-line running, but I doubt he will be recovered sufficiently to participate in sport-specific drills. Athletes recovering from ACL surgeries might return to sports-specific activities at five months, which will be around the NFL draft. It is possible Gurley might be able to work out for NFL teams in some capacity, although this isn’t guaranteed. As such, Gurley could drop further than he should in the NFL draft, and that could precipitate a drop in dynasty rookie drafts, similar to Lacy and Allen.

I would recommend dynasty players tune out the noise that might surround Gurley in the coming months. I think Gurley is the top pick in rookie drafts, ahead of Amari Cooper and Melvin Gordon. Gurley’s production and talent are beyond media-driven hyperbole. If you own the 1.01 rookie pick, take Gurley. If you own the 1.08 rookie pick, hope he slides down draft boards similar to Lacy and Allen in 2013.

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