2015 NFL Mock Draft One: Picks #1-#16

This will be my first of several mock drafts I hope to do prior to the actual NFL Draft. I am a draft junkie, like many of you, and try to absorb and analyze every bit of data available to make the most logical picks for each team.

I would recommend using this first mock draft to gauge current college player’s value and NFL team’s needs. Inevitably, as the combine passes and free agency begins to take shape, we will see both of those become clearer.

1.01) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Marcus Mariota (QB, Oregon)
Team Needs: QB, DE, DT, S

This is a combination of both need and optimizing the pick’s value for the Buccaneers. Managing just 20 touchdowns passing with Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson on the outside will not help this team win many games. Mariota has good mobility and throws an accurate ball while making few mistakes on the field. The fumbling is hopefully correctable (27 in his three years as a starter) but his character and leadership are unquestioned. Mariota will probably ride the bench in favor of Josh McCown for a few games as Tampa Bay has little need to rush him. The alternative here is Jameis Winston but I see this as too risky for the Bucs given how far away they are and a clear need for a leader.

1.02) Tennessee Titans – Randy Gregory (DE/LB, Nebraska)
Team Needs: LB, S, QB, WR, OT

The Titans appear to be willing to give Zach Mettenberger another season behind center before looking to draft a signal caller. That leads me to Gregory, the former junior college player who transferred to Nebraska and has looked the part of a dominant pass rusher. The Titans could use someone opposite former first round pick Derrick Morgan to increase the pressure on opposing quarterbacks and force a few more turnovers for the offense to work with. Winston is a possibility here as well but I get the feeling that the sting of Jake Locker is still healing and this team isn’t ready to invest such a high pick on a quarterback.

1.03) Jacksonville Jaguars – Leonard Williams (DE/DT, USC)
Team Needs: CB, S, OT, C, DE

[inlinead]The Jaguars appear to have all the makings of a good young offense but are desperate for help in the secondary. Unfortunately, without trading down, no one at this point even remotely provides value. Instead, going with Williams helps with a lower priority need while adding another difference maker to an improved pass rush. The versatility of playing both inside and out will add depth while making up for a few past reaches with Tyson Alualu and Andre Branch having the look of busts. Alternatives would be to reach slightly for an offensive lineman, although the pick of Luke Joeckel makes that less likely, or drop down to select someone like Landon Collins.

1.04) Oakland Raiders – Amari Cooper (WR, Alabama)
Team Needs: DT, DE, WR, LB, RB

The Raiders could go a few directions here but I like the idea of adding another weapon to help out Derek Carr. The rookie signal caller had little to work with besides James Jones and it showed with the Raiders rotating several players in and out of the second starting spot. With Cooper, the Raiders get an instant contributor who runs smooth routes and is capable of playing outside or in the slot. He would be a great building block for this offense for the foreseeable future. I could also see the team look for additional pass rush help and would be happy to take either Gregory or Williams if they drop.

1.05) Washington Redskins – Brandon Scherff (OT/G, Iowa)
Team Needs: OT, CB, S, ILB

Right now, this is a slight reach, but Washington needs offensive line help in the worst way. There are no elite prospects on the offensive line but Scherff represents a player with a safe floor and the versatility to play several positions for the team. I could see this pick changing if the team decides Brian Orakpo is too expensive to resign, prompting someone like Shane Ray to suddenly become much more attractive.

1.06) New York Jets – Jameis Winston (QB, Florida State)
Team Needs: QB, HB, CB, OT, OG

The Jets are hurting for cornerback help but this is not a draft with elite prospects at the position. Instead, the new coaching staff could look to wash their hands of the Geno Smith experiment and decide to mold their own hand-picked quarterback. There are good weapons at wide receiver and Winston could have a great coaching mentor in Chan Gailey. The off-field concerns are legitimate and New York is a tempting environment, but his talent is too great to let slip past this quarterback needy team.

1.07) Chicago Bears – Shane Ray (DE/OLB, Missouri)
Team Needs: CB, S, OT, OLB, DE

The Bears need impact players on the defensive side of the football at every level. In Ray, the Bears get a legitimate pass rush threat they can rotate on their defensive line. This should help a defense that was burned routinely by elite quarterbacks they failed to pressure. Another option here is Landon Collins, but he doesn’t have the difference making qualities Ray possesses.

1.08) Atlanta Falcons – Dante Fowler (DE/OLB, Florida)
Team Needs: HB, TE, OLB, DE, DT

Another team that needs help on the defensive side of the ball, the Falcons will be looking for an edge rusher who helps them improve on their 22 sacks from this year. By targeting Fowler, they get a prospect that can be a base defensive end or a 3-4 linebacker depending on the scheme their new head coach brings in. The Falcons could also look to the interior of the line but with pass rushing at such a premium, I don’t see another option here that makes more sense.

1.09) New York Giants – Andrus Peat (OT, Stanford)
Team Needs: OG, C, S, OT

The Giants struggled all over the offensive line this season so they need to do everything they can to upgrade here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see multiple picks invested in the line to protect Eli Manning and improve the running game. In Peat, the Giants would get a player capable of playing either tackle position and has the length (6’7”) and pedigree (his father was also an offensive tackle) to be successful. The offensive line prospects are still shaping out so their order in this round will change as the draft draws near.

1.10) Saint Louis Rams – La’el Collins (OT/G, LSU)
Team Needs: OG, C, QB, CB

Although they picked Greg Robinson in the first round last year, there are still question marks along this offensive line. Between Jake Long’s health, Robinson’s future position, and free agency for right tackle Joseph Barksdale; the Rams will need to consider taking the best available lineman. In Collins, the Rams would get a versatile lineman capable of playing guard or tackle with impressive run blocking skills. If Robinson makes the move to left tackle, Collins could be the bookend on the right side.

1.11) Minnesota Vikings – T.J. Clemmings (OT, Pittsburgh)
Team Needs: OT, WR, HB, DE

The Vikings have two very clear needs; one along the offensive line and the other is finding a young receiver who isn’t named Cordarrelle Patterson. The receiver class has some depth and they can address this in the second round but the poor play at the tackle position on the offensive line needs to be dealt with early. Clemmings has the look of a long-term right tackle and could allow Phil Loadholt to shift inside to guard. If Matt Kalil struggles again as he did last year, they could also try Clemmings out on the blind side. The alternative here would likely be DeVante Parker, who can be the choice here if he manages to exceed the already high expectations during the draft process.

1.12) Cleveland Browns – DeVante Parker (WR, Louisville)
Team Needs: WR, DT, DE, ILB

This will all depend on the Browns and their decision on Josh Gordon this off-season. Assuming they move on, Parker is an obvious selection for the team as a replacement. After returning from injury, Parker had a dominant season, proving that he was more than just a product of Teddy Bridgewater. He would instantly be slotted as the top receiver here and would be in line for a solid season, depending on the quarterback situation. Even if Gordon stays, wide receiver is a priority but they may look to the defensive line with their first of two picks in the round.

1.13) New Orleans Saints – Danny Shelton (DT, Washington)
Team Needs: DT, OLB, CB, HB

The Saints continue to struggle on defense and need talent upgrades at every level. In Shelton, the team would get a mammoth run stopper who has a surprising motor for a man who tips the scales at 340 pounds. Having him line up alongside Junior Gallette and Cameron Jordan would also keep teams from being able to slide protection outside when throwing the ball. Shelton could work his way into the top ten before long so the Saints will pick the best defensive player available.

1.14) Miami Dolphins – Benardrick McKinney (LB, Mississippi State)
Team Needs: OG, C, DT, ILB

The interior of the line can wait as there is some talent on the team. The focus here should be on defense and the Dolphins could get a nice piece up the middle with McKinney. Miami gave up 4.3 yards per carry to running backs and McKinney is a strong run stopper who should help clog up those lanes. The difficulty will be that McKinney doesn’t play the pass well so he is incapable of playing all three downs. Jared Odrick is entering free agency so defensive tackle could become more of a need and if Mike Wallace is dismissed from the team, add wide receiver to the list.

1.15) San Francisco 49ers – Kevin White (WR, West Virginia)
Team Needs: WR, CB, DE, TE

While the 49ers have several cornerbacks coming up on free agency, it was the offense that held the team back from making the playoffs. As such, going with the best wide receiver available is the right choice for this team as Michael Crabtree has disappointed and is now a free agent (and likely will not return). In White, San Francisco would get a young receiver who dealt with turmoil at the quarterback position this past year and was among the most successful statistically anyway. He has size and speed that the team needs and should have less pressure initially with Anquan Boldin and Stevie Johnson still around.

1.16) Houston Texans – Trae Waynes (CB, Michigan State)
Team Needs: S, OG, TE, HB, QB

There are several needs the Texans could address in the first round including their offensive line, the back end of their defense, and a few skill positions on offense for depth purposes. Add in cornerback if Kareem Jackson is allowed to walk via free agency. I don’t know if the Texans have that kind of money so finding a replacement is a realistic option in round one. In Waynes, Houston would get a 6’1” cornerback who has the looks of what the NFL has evolved to. Add in the fact that he needs little polish and could start day one for a team that is capable of making the playoffs next year.

We’ll be back with the rest of round one later this week.

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