The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

hopkins

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

  1. I have a tough decision on my hands in my 12-team PPR league.  I have a bit of a weaker running back corps lead by Andre Ellington.  I’m stronger at receiver, but injuries bit me so I’d like to add another top guy there.  I have a potential deal to ship Ellington for DeAndre Hopkins and while I love the deal, I’m worried it will leave me without a viable back.  I do also have rookie pick 1.02.  Should I try and press on this?Vince in MO

I like Arizona running back Andre Ellington as much (okay, much more) as the next guy. He’s a true dual threat who possesses home run ability, which unfortunately wasn’t on display in 2014 due (largely, in my opinion) to a foot injury that plagued him since week one. Nevertheless, this subpar efficiency hasn’t had much of an impact on his dynasty value, as his ADP has only dropped five spots since August (currently 42.0).

With that said, Houston receiver DeAndre Hopkins has been a true riser, ascending 16 spots over that same time frame to a December ADP of 24.3. During this period Hopkins had the torch passed to him from the venerable Andre Johnson, leading the Texans in yards and touchdowns despite procuring 20 fewer targets than his veteran teammate. It was a true changing of the guard.

So even despite my status as an Ellington apologist, and even given your current ball carrying depth chart, I’d make this deal. It’s always in one’s best interest to stockpile the best assets you can, and this is especially true when considering the nebulous nature of the running back landscape (a follow-up trade for a player like Justin Forsett or Jonathan Stewart might not be a bad idea). Throwing in your ability to select one of Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon with your draft pick, and you’ll be good to go for 2015.

  1. I need a running back in my 12-team, half-PPR league and I have a chance to get CJ Anderson, (I already have Montee Ball). I’m thinking of offering DeAndre Hopkins, as I already have Antonio Brown and AJ Green, and my best running back is Andre Ellington (I also have Christine Michael). I’m drafting at 1.02, and will take either Melvin Gordon or Todd Gurley.Merle in Alberta

See the above, rinse and repeat (seriously – these are some eerie similarities between the first two questions!). Broncos running back CJ Anderson was a true revelation in 2014, and is now arguably a top-12 dynasty running back, but I believe Hopkins still wins the day in value. I’d instead choose to build around your receiving corps and select whichever rookie running back falls to you at 1.02 – conversely, you could always put the pick on the block when it’s your turn to make a selection, as I’m sure there will be a bidding war once Rookie Fever sets in.

  1. I have joined a start up 16-team PPR dynasty league and I am wondering if you could give me a little advice? It is a 22-man roster and we start one quarterback, two running backs, two receivers, one tight end, two FLEX position players, a kicker and a defense. We have a $300 salary cap for the initial auction, and I have never done an auction draft before. Is there a certain percentage that I should spend on each position, how should I divide up my 12 bench spots, and how many players of each position do you think I should carry?Brian in MN

[inlinead]The inherent problem here is there isn’t any one right answer. Your draft strategy is not only going to be determined by your wants and needs, but also by those of your league-mates. While you could have a rough blueprint going into the draft, there are no guarantees the end product is going to even remotely resemble your initial designs.

Fortunately, DLF’s own Fantasy Football Ghost has provided a malleable strategy for your situation, and really any auction draft situation – the Flexible Auction Draft Strategy (FADS). FADS is first and foremost flexible in nature so as it gives different prices for players based on scoring system, bidding strategy and other players selected not to mention several other variables based on league setup. It’s really quite an amazing tool, and a downloadable version can be found here – using it will ensure you achieve the best possible results!

  1. Should I trade the fifth overall pick in the 2015 draft CJ Anderson?Richard in NY

I think I’d stand pat. As mentioned above I like CJ Anderson and view him as a revelation for Denver, but the simple truth is there could be multiple mouths to feed. A new coach might not feel the same way about Anderson as the recently deposed John Fox, and it’s entirely possible Montee Ball or Ronnie Hillman could get another chance – a great deal of uncertainty surrounds the situation.

And once again, your draft pick is going to carry a significant amount of value, especially when you’re on the clock. While it’s true there appears to be a locked and loaded top three (Gordon, Gurley and receiver Amari Cooper), multiple other rookies such as DeVante Parker, Tevin Coleman, Jay Ajayi, Kevin White, Devin Funchess and even the mercurial Dorial Green-Beckham could reserve their spots in that second tier. Should a league-mate desire one of these players, there remains a solid chance you could do even better than Anderson should you still want to pursue a trade.

  1. I’m in need of some advice at quarterback. I survived the year with Colin Kaepernick and RGIII as my starters and took home the ‘ship thanks to my strong receiving corps.  With that said I still have to make a play at a quarterback upgrade. I have picks 1.12, 2.12, 3.03, 3.13 and 4.03 in the upcoming rookie draft. We have three mandatory quarterback slots (six points per touchdown), but we also can roster more on the rookie squad.  I would hate to sell super low on Kaepernick or RGIII so I feel I only have one more slot to get it right. With that said, can you give me some direction on what to do at quarterback, and maybe to help a few of us out tell us what you would be comfortable giving up in terms of draft picks for some established veterans such as Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Eli Manning or Tom Brady?Mark in IL

First things first, I agree with not selling right now on either San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick or Washington signal caller Robert Griffin III. Not only is it rarely advisable to sell low on young, theoretically talented players, the truth is you wouldn’t see much of a return at this juncture in their respective careers. I’d rather gamble on each rediscovering a semblance of their previous form.

With regards to acquiring a veteran quarterback, I like majority of your proposed targets, but there are two I would choose to weed out. The first is the Saints’ Drew Brees – this is obviously no indictment of his talent, but more a commentary on how you might be forced to spend more than you’d prefer (potentially your first round pick, given the six points per touchdown). The second is Giants signal caller Eli Manning, who is simply too streaky to truly afford you an upgrade on your current roster.

From there, you need to decide what you want to spend. Atlanta’s Matt Ryan will undoubtedly be the most expensive of the remaining players, and will likely cost you your first rounder. Given the heightened scoring, and Ryan’s status as a top-five dynasty option (in my opinion), and I think this is reasonable. At “only” 29 years old, he could function as a QB1 for upwards of seven to eight more years.

However, if you’d prefer frugality, I’d next look towards Ben Roethlisberger. Though it’s true his 2014 season stands as somewhat of an outlier, he arguably has the best receiving weapons of his career, and should put forward low-end QB1 numbers at a minimum. He could likely also be had for your second round pick.

Even cheaper would be the pair of Tony Romo and Philip Rivers. Both, for whatever reason, continue to be perpetually underappreciated despite their respective statuses as perennial QB1’s. Furthermore, neither is truly “old” (Rivers is 33 and Romo is 34), and each should have at least three to four good years left. Pick 3.03 should be enough to get the job done in either instance.

This leaves New England’s Tom Brady, who at 37 is easily the oldest player on this list, but also potentially provides the highest floor/ceiling combination. Following an abysmal start he truly recaptured his form down the stretch in 2014, and ultimately finished the year as a mid-range QB1. Perhaps more importantly, given his age he could very well be the cheapest of the bunch, perhaps being valued as a third round selection as well.

Ultimately though it’ll depend on your preference – the safest option with the longest longevity is Ryan, but he’ll also be the most expensive. If that’s out of your price range, I’d next look to Big Ben and the Romo/Rivers combination, and then finally to Brady if it came down to it. Ultimately though, each should provide an upgrade on your current situation, and I wouldn’t hesitate to make any of the moves I’ve outlined above.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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eric hardter