The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter Posted On January 8, 2015

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After a brief hiatus, the mailbag has returned!

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

My 12-team, non-PPR league has a contract cap of 65 years and I have several expiring players to consider, including Drew Brees, Mark Ingram, Isaiah Crowell, Demaryius Thomas, AJ Green, Larry Donnell, Vernon Davis and Rob Housler. I can extend two players by a year and I plan to do that to Green and Thomas, which leaves the decision of who to franchise out of the rest. Franchised players enter the offseason FA auction, but if I lose him to another team I get that team’s first round pick as compensation. I don’t mind losing the player I franchise as I do not have a 1st round pick, but I have a lot of holes to fill regardless of who I try to keep. What’s my best option? – Paul in Vancouver

First and foremost I agree with your extension plans, as the receiving duo of Cincy’s AJ Green and Denver’s Demaryius Thomas represent two of the five most coveted assets in dynasty football. Even if it’s only for an additional year, locking them both up should do wonders for your title hopes in 2015. From there, however, you have a distinct tier drop with the remaining players eligible for the franchise tag.

To start, I’d immediately remove the tight end trio of Larry Donnell, Vernon Davis and Rob Housler from consideration. The former was somewhat of a revelation in his 2014 breakout, but still only offered low-end TE1 numbers – the latter two are essentially devoid of fantasy viability at this point. You could easily find a replacement level player on the waiver wire (or in the draft), and more importantly none of these three players would help in your quest to reclaim a first round draft pick.

[inlinead]Next I’d cross of quarterback Drew Brees. I recognize he’s the model of consistency at the position, and even his “down year” resulted in a finish as the overall QB5, but the fantasy landscape is currently flush with signal calling prowess. In a 12-team league, I suspect Brees would be another tough sell if the goal is to sneak back into your draft’s opening stanza.

This leaves a pair a ball carriers in Cleveland rookie Isaiah Crowell and soon-to-be free agent Mark Ingram. As I’ve stated on numerous occasions, it’s my belief running back remains the most important position in a non-PPR setting, and as such both players carry significant value. And while the decision is close, I’ll ultimately choose to side with the youngster.

Ingram had what some would equate to a breakout campaign, but lost in this is that increased volume belied a lack of efficiency down the stretch. To that point, following his best game of the season in late October against Green Bay, Ingram averaged a paltry 3.8 YPC despite facing a relatively weak slate of run defenses. He was actually less efficient (in terms of YPC) than teammates Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas, and frankly I don’t see a shift to another team as a solution. To me, he’s simply not a foundation back.

Crowell, on the other hand, could be. He led Browns running backs in both YPC and yards-per-reception, while also showing a nose for the end zone with eight touchdowns. He possesses feature back size while showing above average explosive metrics. He has true RB1 potential, and is the only one of your options worth a 2015 first round pick in my estimation.

What is the dynasty value of Duron Carter? I know we’ve seen CFL receivers fail in the past, but something feels different about Carter. He was a highly regarded high school recruit, and his lack of production in college can be attributed to academic issues keeping him off the field. – Barry in WI

At this stage in the game it’s a little too premature to gauge the exact worth of CFL receiver Duron Carter. Given the abnormal circumstances surrounding his impending defection to the NFL, the team he signs with and the duration of his contract loom large. Since he’ll “already” be 24 before the 2015 season starts, we could potentially lose the bulk of his prime years should he wind up in a non-preferred locale (I’m looking at you, Kansas City).

On the other hand, given his two years in the CFL I expect the transition to the NFL to come more easily for Carter than it would if he was a rookie. Though we were spoiled by the riches of the 2014 class, it’s imperative to remember those types of immediate contributions represent the exception, not the rule. The ability to essentially bypass the learning curve shouldn’t be taken for granted, either.

Ultimately I’m willing to view Carter as an expensive lottery ticket. He has the size and the speed, and showed playmaking ability up North, giving him a slightly raised floor as compared to your garden variety Justin Hunter-types. He was the 62^nd receiver taken in our December mocks (c/o Ryan McDowell), but I could see the case for bumping him roughly 15 spots higher. All told, if he lands on a good team I think you’ll need to offer up a mid-second round pick to acquire his services.

Is Steven Jackson worth holding in a 12-team PPR league? – Eric in PA

Barring some sort of league-mandated deadline, I see little incentive to cut anyone on your roster unless it’s to make room for waiver adds or draft picks. But if, for whatever reason, you’re really stretched for roster space, I could see the case for cutting the cord. With no guaranteed money left on his contract, it’s tough to see Atlanta bringing the veteran back at his scheduled $3.75 million salary, especially considering the wealth of free agent and rookie runners.

With that said, while it’s clear S-Jax isn’t the difference maker he was early in his career, he nevertheless finished the season as the PPR RB28. In deeper leagues, there’s a good chance you wound up starting the venerable running back on more than on occasion in 2014. Should he continue his playing career, there’s always the chance he could surprise again next year. In all likelihood though, if you believe you have a shot at a player with higher upside, there’s truthfully no need to hold out hope based on past production.

What’s the real story with Jimmy Graham? Is he not as good as we previously thought, or was the injury more of a factor than he or the Saints let on? – James in CO

Unfairly or not, it seems Saints’ start tight end Jimmy Graham’s 2014 season was stacked up against two players – New England’s Rob Gronkowski, and also 2011-2013 Jimmy Graham. Whatever the reason, these were battles Graham simply didn’t win. But does it really reflect on his dynasty future?

I don’t believe it does. First and foremost, even despite the “down year,” Graham still finished as the overall PPR TE2, chipping in 15.6 PPG. Yes, the numbers were lower than we expected, but more often than not he was capable of giving you aberrant production above the positional mean. All this was done despite a lingering shoulder injury, which in my opinion definitively hampered his production.

In fact, consider the following table that highlights the tale of two seasons (excludes the week five game when he exited in the first half, as well as the week six matchup with Detroit where he was clearly functioning as a decoy):

Range	Targets	Receptions	Yards	TD’s	YPT	PPR PPG
Games 1-4	41	32	340	3	8.3	21.0
Games 7-16	78	51	513	7	6.6	14.4

In the first quarter of the season, Graham was still playing like fantasy’s top tight end, scoring an average of 21.0 PPR PPG. After the injury, however, his usage and efficiency declined sharply, including 20.5% drop-off in yards-per-target (YPT) and a 31.4% reduction in weekly fantasy scoring. His touchdowns remained largely unchanged, as Graham continues to function as one of the game’s preeminent red zone threats, but he was clearly impeded by the injury.

Expected to recover with rest, I suspect we’ll see a lot more of the early-season Graham come 2015. The drops will more than likely taper off, and more importantly his snap rate should increase to incorporate three-down usage. All told, given Graham’s down year, coupled with the breakout of several young players, we could essentially have what equates to a dynasty solar eclipse – a chance to buy low on a legitimate superstar. Given that potential, I’d act before he gets the chance to show us again why his value was so high to begin with.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.