Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Seventeen

George Kritikos

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Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. We’ll pick one player from each team who we have our eye on and describe why their weekend performance is a key one for them in relation to their dynasty value.

With this being the last week of the regular season, I will try and focus on players who could make steps forward in 2015 and be given extended playing time this week.

Early Games

Buffalo at New England

With free agency looming, C.J. Spiller has one last chance to impress potential suitors. His return from injury last week saw him catch four passes for 14 yards but only managed four carries for negative four yards. Spiller is playing a New England team that has nothing to gain in this game and has been vulnerable against the run. He should exceed the 18 snaps from last week and surpass ten total touches but what he does with them may be a preview of how much a priority Spiller will be for teams this offseason.

Another running back looking for a free agent payday, Brandon Bolden has flown under the radar this season. While just a restricted free agent, Bolden is one of three running backs (along with Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley) who could be leaving New England. He has only received 23 carries this year despite averaging 4.9 yards per carry in 2013 (on 55 carries). With New England having locked up their playoff position, Bolden could see some extended playing time to convince another team that he has the skills to be a contributor in 2015.

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Chicago at Minnesota

Just one week after his benching, Jay Cutler gets a second chance to make an impression to close out the 2014 season. While his contract seems to be a hurdle for trading him ($16.5 million cap hit in 2015 alone), Cutler and the Bears need to make this marriage work. Both teams are out of the playoffs but a game that features efficient and turnover free football would show that Cutler is taking his benching seriously.

With Greg Jennings and Charles Johnson seemingly locked into the starting receiver roles for 2015, there is a competition brewing for the third wide receiver role. If week 16 is any indication, the favorite has to be Jarius Wright, the third year player from Arkansas. Wright is averaging nearly 40 snaps per game over the last four weeks compared to fewer than six from Cordarrelle Patterson. Perhaps a coaching change, at least on the offensive end, will alter this distribution, but any headway these two can make against the anemic Chicago secondary can only help their cause.

Jacksonville at Houston

With the glut at wide receiver, it is unlikely that the Jaguars try to resign Cecil Shorts, who is headed for unrestricted free agency this off-season. Shorts has struggled with a 52% catch rate despite being more of a possession receiver this season (10.6 yards per reception). However, this will be his second season leading the team in targets and has shown an ability to be a reliable option for a young quarterback. Shorts could find himself landing in a better offense as a second receiver as he approaches his prime (27 years old).

Rookie tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz has struggled to get a foothold in this offense. Part of the reason has been the coaching staff’s unwillingness to utilize tight ends in the passing game. Last week, Fiedorowicz had 40 snaps for the first time since week five, capitalizing with a pair of catches, including his first career touchdown. With a need for more passing options in 2015, the rookie tight end could put himself in a good position if he can show some improved blocking skills to pair with his receiving abilities.

San Diego at Kansas City

With Eddie Royal approaching free agency and Malcom Floyd remaining little more than a deep threat, there could be an opening for a third receiver to emerge. This is where Dontrelle Inman could carve out a role. Inman was unheralded coming out of Virginia in 2011 but he has the size (6’3”) and speed (4.5 40 yard dash) to contribute both underneath and down the field. If the Chargers see another solid week out of Inman (seven catches on nine targets for 79 yards last week), they may elect to let Royal walk and expand Inman’s role in 2015.

Taking advantage of an injury during a contract year is a great way to go from not playing in 2013 to looking at a 2014 offseason payday. That is exactly what linebacker Josh Mauga has done as he approaches 100 total tackles after not playing in 2013 and only being signed after Derrick Johnson was injured. Mauga has showcased himself all season with three double digit tackle games among his accomplishments. A nice lasting impression going into the off-season would be a great way to secure a starting spot somewhere in 2015.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay

Just 25 years old and entering the off-season as an unrestricted free agent, Mark Ingram found the right time to breakout. He is just 93 yards away from his first 1,000 yard rushing season and is showing improvement in the passing game both with his blocking and his hands. Ingram may opt to look elsewhere as both Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson are signed for next season. Ending against a Tampa Bay team missing Gerald McCoy could help put an exclamation point on his 2014 season.

With just one week left in the season, no running back has taken charge of the backfield. With Bobby Rainey a restricted free agent, Charles Sims and Doug Martin should try and find a way to convince the team that he isn’t needed. Sims was the only back chosen by the current Bucs regime but Martin is a former first rounder who already has a 1,000 yard rushing season under his belt. A cushy matchup against the Saints’ run defense could help them make a case going into the offseason.

Cleveland at Baltimore

A new quarterback for the week may make the forgettable season of Jordan Cameron even worse. Add on the fact that he is an unrestricted free agent this offseason and Cameron may look for a short-term contract similar to Jeremy Maclin in an effort to cash in later. Just 21 catches in an injury-marred year will likely dry up the opportunities and with Baltimore still playing for a chance at the playoffs, Cameron is going to face a hungry defense.

A career backup, Justin Forsett is another player who found the right time to capitalize on suspensions, injuries, and ineffectiveness to put himself in an envious position for free agency. Teams will have to weigh his age (29) against his light career workload (just 565 carries) when deciding if he is worth an investment. Baltimore needs this win and Forsett needs to show that the last two weeks (2.6 yards per carry) is an aberration and not his inability to handle a full workload (5.3 yards per carry this year).

Dallas at Washington

Signed to a one year deal before the season, Rolando McClain appears to have rediscovered his passion for football. Despite missing a pair of games (and limited in a few others), McClain is currently 15th among inside linebackers for solo tackles (74) and has added a sack and two interceptions. I suspect he will return to Dallas but there will be a lot of interest in the former first rounder who is coming into his own at just 25 years old.

A favorite of mine and a good number of dynasty owners, Roy Helu is a talent who could use a change of scenery. He has 38 catches (astonishingly on just 39 targets) and is averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season on his 34 carries. Helu could see a market that is always interested in pass catching backs capable of complementing a power runner. Ironically, that is the situation he is in now but the underutilization could drive him to a more pass-oriented attack.

Indianapolis at Tennessee

I will avoid the wide receiver situation since that has been discussed repeatedly. Instead, I will look to Jerrell Freeman, the inside linebacker who has seen a decline in tackles (from 93 solo in 2013 to 66 currently) as D’Qwell Jackson joined the team and continues to be a high volume tackler. His impending free agency (albeit restricted) is intriguing as he is capable of stepping in as a starter and producing solid IDP numbers. Freeman will likely stay another year in Indianapolis where his value is limited but he is one Jackson injury away from being an elite IDP contributor.

Sadly, Jake Locker has not panned out with the Titans given their first round investment in the young quarterback. Entering the offseason with a fair number of teams needing a veteran quarterback to push an incumbent, Locker could see an opportunity similar to Michael Vick or Mark Sanchez. He does have a 27:22 touchdown to interception ratio and good mobility in the pocket. Locker should catch on somewhere and potentially get a chance to start due to a quarterback battle or an injury.

New York Jets at Miami

With Dawan Landry becoming a free agent this offseason, rookie first rounder Calvin Pryor could be the player to benefit the most. Landry has been the strong safety when healthy and Pryor has assumed the role any time Landry has been out or limited. Pryor would be capable of bigger tackle numbers if Landry walks and he is given that strong safety spot. The only thing holding him back is Landry and a missed tackle number (14) that should improve with experience.

With both Daniel Thomas and Knowshon Moreno signed to one year deals before the season, Damien Williams will have the first claim at the backup role to Lamar Miller. Miller has been limited to roughly 15 touches per game this season so the second running back job can be a lucrative one. Williams has shown skill in the passing game (19 of 23 passes caught) and has looked better as the season has gone along. It would not surprise me if the Dolphins sign a running back this offseason for depth but Williams could see his role expand with another good game and a strong preseason.

Philadelphia at New York Giants

It is a tough choice between Jeremy Maclin and Mark Sanchez to highlight but I will go with the former first round quarterback. With a 64% completion percentage and 7.8 yards per attempt (both career highs), Sanchez is putting himself in position for a 2015 starting role either in Philadelphia or on another quarterback needy team. Nick Foles is still on his rookie contract so Philadelphia can afford to resign Sanchez as competition but there will likely be a few teams willing to give Sanchez a shot to start. He kept the Eagles in the playoffs and could still help them to a ten win season; a fact that won’t be lost on potential suitors.

A forgotten man on the Giants’ defense since his injury, Jacquian Williams was on his way to a nice payday before the concussion. Placed on the IR a few weeks ago, Williams had at least six solo tackles in two thirds (six of nine) of his games playing weakside linebacker. His overall solo tackles (57) are still good enough for 17th at the outside linebacker position, crazy considering the time missed. Williams would be best served resigning with the Giants as his opportunities would likely decrease going to another team.

Afternoon Games

Carolina at Atlanta

In one of the few games that matters for both teams, Carolina likely won’t get too cute with their offense. That means another 40 snaps for backup tight end Ed Dickson as he works as an underneath option and run blocker. Signed prior to the season on a one year deal, Dickson was a former 50 catch tight end with the Ravens and is still just 27 years old. Injuries and the emergence of Dennis Pitta cost him his starting job but he could see another opportunity for extended playing time with the right team. He is a deep stash who will get some looks in the offseason but his situation will dictate his 2015 value.

A rookie who failed to meet expectations, Devonta Freeman could see an increased role if Jacquizz Rodgers is unsigned after the season. Freeman is averaging a team best 4.1 yards per carry despite being third on the team in snaps and receiving just 59 carries. He has also has 28 catches on just 31 targets, showing an efficiency in the passing game that could easily replace Rodgers. Freeman just needs more opportunities with the offense and with Steven Jackson slowing down at the end of the season; it may come starting this week in a pivotal matchup.

Detroit at Green Bay

Another game with playoff implications for both teams (NFC North division on the line), the Lions will be reliant on Ndamukong Suh to pressure Aaron Rodgers into key mistakes. The elite defensive tackle is a terror on quarterbacks (eight sacks, 35 quarterback hurries) and has added another 39 total tackles to be a great option in IDP leagues, especially those who use defensive tackle specific spots in their lineup. Suh would have no shortage of suitors but I suspect the Lions will use the franchise tag if they can’t come up with a number that works for both sides.

Green Bay faces a conundrum on offense with Randall Cobb an unrestricted free agent and Jarrett Boykin a restricted free agent this year. They have replacements at the ready with rookies Davante Adams and Jeff Janis capable of stepping in but they may decide Cobb’s unique skillset in particular will be tough to part with. Adams already has become the third receiver on this team while Janis has been largely a spectator in his rookie season. Cobb will get plenty of attention from contending teams with needs at wide receiver so one big offer could see him moving on.

Saint Louis at Seattle

Although he leads the receiving core in targets with 76, Kenny Britt may not be a priority for the Rams to resign this offseason. His 58% catch rate is last among the Rams’ receiving core and the emergence of Stedman Bailey and Brian Quick this season could make Britt expendable. With both Bailey and Quick signed for another season and Tavon Austin around until 2017, Britt is a luxury the team may decide is better spent elsewhere. Whether Sam Bradford returns or the team goes in a new direction at quarterback, they have finally created a receiving core that can complement the running game and defense.

Seattle has very few key free agents coming up but they may look to cut a key player in Marshawn Lynch if they feel their internal options will limit the impact. Both Robert Turbin (4.1 yards per carry) and Christine Michael (5.2) have run well in relief of Lynch and are more cost effective options, especially if the Seahawks decide to look to free agency for a new wide receiver option. That said, Lynch is again dominating competition (4.7 yards per carry) and has broken 85 tackles this season (breaking his own record via Pro Football Focus). If he becomes a free agent, Lynch would be coveted by any team with cap space and even a marginal need at running back.

Oakland at Denver

There are few things to look forward to in regards to the Raiders’ offense but Andre Holmes has had a nice season. A restricted free agent this offseason, Holmes has proven to be a downfield threat (15.2 yards per reception) which has come at the cost of a 54% catch rate. It is hard to predict what the Raiders do but with James Jones signed for two more years and Kenbrell Thompkins becoming a larger part of the offense, it is possible they let Holmes walk. His arrow is pointing up and could ascend even more if the Raiders do allow him to leave.

An up and down season has marred Julius Thomas’ value going into unrestricted free agency. He should still command a substantial contract and the Broncos could look elsewhere to replace that receiving production. That could prove to be rookie Cody Latimer’s opportunity with the team. Thomas leaving combined with the precipitous decline from Wes Welker would have the team searching for a third option in the offense. If Thomas does leave, his value will take a decent hit as very few teams could utilize him the way Denver has these last two seasons.

Arizona at San Francisco

Another team with few major free agents, Arizona will face a tough decision on Larry Fitzgerald. Even if they restructure his contract, there are several talented youngsters looking for bigger roles in 2015. Michael Floyd was reduced to a Vincent Jackson type role while rookie John Brown and second year player Jaron Brown have both flashed potential. Fitzgerald will be needed in this game to ensure their playoff position in a tough divisional matchup. However, will a reduced salary in 2015 mean a limited role for the long-time Cardinal or does Fitzgerald remain the primary receiver in this offense?

Another receiver who has disappointed this year, Michael Crabtree could be on the move as an unrestricted free agent. He has just 64 catches this year and his 10.3 yards per catch affirms his use as an underneath option. The latter stat is a surprise as he had never been below 12 yards per catch prior to this season. A change in scenery could help the 27 year old notch his second 1,000 yard receiving season and nudge him closer to the expectations dynasty owners had of him coming out of college.

Sunday Night Game

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Highlighted here several times this season, Jermaine Gresham has filled in admirably for the injured Tyler Eifert. That has put him in a position to secure a nice contract as he enters unrestricted free agency. He should surpass 60 catches this year (59 currently) and provide Andy Dalton with that underneath option he has needed all season. If Gresham can help them into the playoffs, it could provide a stage that will catch the eyes of several potential suitors.

Some upheaval in the Pittsburgh secondary should be expected this offseason but a cornerback who could be resigned is restricted free agent Antwon Blake. The second year player has become a solid cover corner on the outside and in the slot while notching at least four solo tackles in any game he has surpassed 30 snaps (including the last two weeks). The Steelers will likely let Ike Taylor walk and Cortez Allen is proving to be a monumental bust just one year into his new deal. He could be a contender for the starting spot opposite William Gay in 2015.

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