Rookie Report Card: Johnny Manziel

Dan Meylor

manziel

I’ve decided to put my own spin on the concept of a rookie report card this year. The Rookie Report Card is exactly what it sounds like, a report card. Not only will I cover my expectations for the player coming into the league and how he’s performed at the NFL level to this point, I’ll actually give him a grade in three categories. Those categories are performance to date, 2014 potential and long term upside.

In each week leading up to week 15, I’ve covered two rookies and tried to always include the biggest performers from that particular week. This week though, instead of writing about two players, I chose to do a more comprehensive review of one of the most anticipated starts to an NFL career. So the series continues with a close look at Johnny Manziel.

Johnny Manziel, QB CLE
Week 15 Stats: 10/18 passing, 80 yards, two interceptions, five carries, 13 yards rushing
Season Stats: 15/27 passing, 143 yards, two interceptions, eight carries, 26 rushing yards, one touchdown

As his final season at Texas A&M came to a close, many draft pundits and dynasty owners alike salivated at the prospects of Manziel as a pro. His moxy off the field along with his flashy play between the sidelines made him easy to root for. I wasn’t quite as high on the former Aggie, however.

Leading up to the draft, many were concerned more about Manziel’s off the field antics than anything else but I considered his indiscretions to be teenage mistakes unlikely to develop into anything more than that. I was far more alarmed by what I saw from Manziel on the field.

While the big plays Manziel made on Saturdays – both with his arm and his feet – were impressive, there were obvious flaws in his game. The primary problem I had with Manziel was his insistence to consistently throw without squaring his shoulders and while unbalanced. Those throws were often inaccurate and many times lacked the velocity necessary to beat NFL caliber defensive backs. He got away with them in college though, partially because Mike Evans made highlight grabs look easy and partially because of the lack of elite talent he faced on a weekly basis.

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Beyond him constantly throwing without balance, Manziel also leaned on his athletic ability too much while in college for me to be comfortable with him as a professional quarterback. He ran the ball 345 times over two seasons and tucked it nearly 37% of the time there wasn’t a called handoff. Although he was extremely successful with the ball under his arm (6.3 YPC and 30 touchdowns), it was alarming to see him depend on his legs so much when watching him play.

I wrote about Manziel a few times leading up to the draft. My feelings on him were summed up best in the following paragraph from a mock draft in late March.

“On the field, Manziel was incredibly successful while at Texas A&M but routinely adlibbed plays and consistently made inferiorly athletic defenders look silly. At the next level, he won’t be able to turn his back from the line of scrimmage and pass-rushers that are much faster than the ones he faced as an Aggie and he certainly won’t be able to throw off his back foot where ball-hawking defensive backs will make plays on balls that would be touchdowns at College Station.”

Then in the very next paragraph, I added this.

“If he’s drafted to be the savior of a dismal franchise like Cleveland or Oakland where there’s the potential for routine coaching changes and consistent losing to start his career, things could go downhill fast.”

So when Manziel was selected by the Browns with the 22nd pick in the draft, I wasn’t very optimistic on his chances of developing into a QB1 for dynasty owners. Obviously to anybody who watched him on Sunday, he didn’t do anything to convince me otherwise in his first start.

Completing just 10-of-18 passes for an abysmal 80 yards and a pair of awful interceptions, Manziel looked dreadful against the Bengals. Constantly throwing off balance and taking his eyes off his receivers to look at the pass rush, his accuracy was nearly as bad as his decision making.

On the first interception he threw, Manziel faked a handoff and locked on to Andrew Hawkins who was running an 18-yard crossing pattern from the right slot and had a three-step cushion on Dre Kirkpatrick. Instead of driving the ball though, Manziel stepped to his left while releasing the ball despite there being no pass rush and delivered a wobbly pass behind Hawkins that Kirkpatrick easily closed on and intercepted. The play was a perfect display of what concerned me about Manziel when he was entering the league.

Then in the third quarter on the Browns’ only sustained drive of the day, Manziel took the snap from shotgun at the 19-yard line, dropped back and after rolling right and avoiding a sack, threw a jump ball for Taylor Gabriel. Once again he threw off balance, this time across his body. The throw was behind the receiver and intercepted. At this point, the game was out of reach and Manziel was doing anything he could to make a play. He made a common mistake by a rookie signal caller, throwing the ball over the middle of the field late, and turned it over. Even so, he should have thrown the ball away and lived for another down.

There were plenty other examples of deficiencies for Manziel on Sunday afternoon but far too many to go into detail. He missed a wide open Jim Dray on an easy 10-yard stop route where he airmailed it over the tight end’s head because he was too concerned about the pass rush despite being well protected. At one point he actually faced backwards to look for pass rushers on the play. He also turned the wrong way on a handoff or fake more than once, ran into multiple sacks when there was time to scan the field from the pocket and attempted a couple jump passes that lacked zip and looked incredibly awkward.

On top of his errors in the passing game, Manziel was equally as ineffective as a runner. He tallied just 13 yards on five carries and looked lost on what was one of his strengths while in college, the zone read. In the first quarter with the Browns already down 10-0, he failed to read the unblocked defensive end properly, held the ball rather than handing it to Isaiah Crowell who had a hole to run through and took a five-yard loss. Then later in the game he handed the ball to the tailback instead of running outside with it when the defensive end had crashed down on the line of scrimmage. That play ended in a loss as well.

Overall, Manziel’s performance was a train wreck. His apologists will likely write his performance off to first day jitters and credit the Bengals’ defense for a great game plan and excellent execution. Both may be true, but there are obvious reasons to be concerned about Manziel’s prospects as a pro going forward – especially after having four months of preparation as a backup.

Obviously, making any definitive statements on any player’s NFL upside after just one start is ludicrous. I’m not so naïve to say that Manziel doesn’t have the skills that could be developed into a useful or perhaps even special NFL quarterback.

Coming out of college, those that were excited about Manziel’s prospects as a pro were because of his unmatched competitiveness as well as his instincts to feel pressure in the pocket and turn negative plays into positive ones due to his incredible athleticism. Both were on display in week 13 against the Bills when he drove the Browns down the field in relief of Brian Hoyer. If used correctly, those attributes could very well be the building blocks to Manziel improving, perhaps dramatically. In order to do so though, he’ll have to learn to keep his eyes downfield and become more disciplined with his release and footwork.

At this point, there’s no reason for the Browns to go away from Manziel, so barring injury he’ll finish the season under center. Although the next two weeks likely won’t affect his status as Cleveland’s starter going into next season, it could go a long ways to improving his confidence and should give the Cleveland coaching staff an opportunity to find out exactly how they can take advantage of Manziel’s unique skill set.

Although his numbers won’t affect your chances at a fantasy championship this year, dynasty owners who have Manziel on their bench should keep a close eye on him over the next two weeks. If he shows improvement with his pocket presence and makes strides in his decision making, there will be reason for optimism going into the offseason. But if he continues to look overmatched in the pocket and consistently looks to run before making his progressions, there will be definite reason for concern.

Overall, I had my doubts before the season that Manziel would ever develop into a starting caliber quarterback for an NFL franchise and serious reservations of him ever developing into a contributor for a dynasty team. While there’s certainly a chance he proves me wrong, so far as a pro Manziel’s done nothing to ease those doubts.

Rookie Report Card
Player: Johnny Manziel
Performance To Date 2014 Potential Long Term Upside
D- C- B-

 

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dan meylor