Daily Optimized Lineups: Week Fifteen

Editor’s Note: This article is part of our Daily Content section in DLF. Daily leagues are growing in the fantasy community and we’ll cover them throughout the regular season. Remember, you can get a DLF Premium account free for year (or your current subscription extended for a year) just by signing up with FanDuel and making an initial deposit. For more information on that special offer, click here.

As part of our expanded focus we partnered up with FanDuel, a true leader in the daily fantasy sphere to provide an incredible experience from research, to play, all the way through to winning. Between DLF and FanDuel we fully expect our readers to have the best daily fantasy football experience on the internet.

As part of that experience we at DLF felt it might be of particular interest to our readers to provide them with an optimized lineup that they should be able to plug into a Head to Head or 50/50 game and fully expect to win some money.

Sorry for having to step out last week as I had to deal with a little health issue last week but this week I’m back, strong as ever and ready to go. This week features a common theme running through many of the players Ghost selected. Many dynasty owners may start to look to extend their fantasy playing opportunities this week in the event they either missed the playoffs or got eliminated. Hopefully, daily leagues may be just that opportunity they are looking for. If that’s you sit back, take a look over the piece below and try to salvage that respect by taking home some money this week from our daily fantasy partner, FanDuel. Here’s DLF’s optimized fantasy lineups for this week:

Quarterback – Drew Brees – $9,200

There have been some whispers recently surrounding the opinion that Drew Brees’ best days may possibly be behind him. I couldn’t disagree more. Tom Brady had the same basic opinion expressed about him earlier this season and as we’ve seen in recent weeks the rumors of his demise were greatly over-exaggerated. The same is true with Brees – pocket passing quarterbacks in the modern age don’t really breakdown like they have in years past with all of the rules designed to protect the position. Now, while Brees isn’t exactly a statue out there, he only really had one major injury in his career so saying he’s breaking down doesn’t exactly work, either. Like Brady, it’s likely he’s in a slump either by his own action, circumstances surround him or some mixture of both. I’d be more tempted to lean towards the theory that circumstances around him have put him in a slump namely the loss of Brandin Cooks and the nagging injury to Jimmy Graham. That being said, Brees is still playing great out there and he faces a Chicago defense this week that is giving up the third most passing yards in the NFL this season. A statistic I really like about this match up for Brees is the fact Chicago’s defense is giving up the most passing touchdowns in the NFL this season with an average of 2.3 per game. Meanwhile, the Saints are racking up the third most passing yards per game in the NFL and are scoring the sixth most passing touchdowns per game, while scoring the most out of any team in the NFL over the past three weeks. The stars seem to be aligning here for Brees to have a really nice game, especially when you consider the fact that the game will be played in front of a national audience on Monday Night Football – that’s just the cherry on top of it all.

Projected Stat Line – 25 completions for 335 yards and three touchdowns

Running Back – Latavius Murray – $6,500

[inlinead]For quite a while, many fantasy football experts have been begging, even imploring the Raiders to get Murray some additional time on the field. Finally, when the winless Raiders faced the Chiefs three weeks ago, Murray showed why it would be smart for him to see the field more often, as he rushed for 112 yards and two touchdowns on only four carries! Oakland went on to win that game, their first win of the season. Two weeks later, he was handed the keys to the backfield and rushed 23 times for 76 yards and gave the Raiders their second shocking win in a month. This week the Raiders again face Kansas City, the team against which Murray had his breakout performance and there is reason to believe he may, at the very least, have another decent game come Sunday. First, the Chiefs are giving up the second most rushing yards per game in the NFL. Second, they are giving up the second fewest yards through the air in the league. Basically this spells out in black and white (or silver if you prefer) that if you want to move the ball against Kansas City, you’re going to have to do it on the ground. Look for Murray to outperform his price point and allow us to stock up elsewhere by taking advantage of this bargain play.

Projected Stat Line – 22 rushes for 85 yards and one touchdown, two receptions for 20 receiving yards.

Running Back – Matt Forte – $9,000

Matt Forte has tended to be a favorite play of mine this season as his versatility makes him an excellent play for his position. The fact Forte is such a big part of the passing attack for the Bears and FanDuel rewards receptions just makes me like this play even more. Factor in the Brandon Marshall injury and suddenly it become evident the extra production Marshall accounted for will need to be spread out. I don’t expect a huge boost from Marshall’s injury but even a little bit could be just the edge we’re looking for. Therefore, when you look at the defense of the Bears’ opponent this week, the Saints, you really start to see some interesting opportunities laid out before us. First, the Saints are giving up the fourth most rushing yards to opponents this season. Second, in the passing game New Orleans again is giving up the fourth most yards in the NFL. Finally, the Saints are giving up the second most rushing touchdowns per game in the NFL. Given how explosive Forte is and how big of a roles he already plays in Chicago’s offense before the Marshall injury, it’s hard not so see him having a really great game come Monday night.

Projected Stat Line – 20 rushes for 90 yards and one touchdown, seven receptions for 75 yards

Wide Receiver – Alshon Jeffery – $8,400

Just as I like Forte due in part to the injury Brandon Marshall suffered, so too do I like Alshon Jeffery for that same reason, only more so. Jeffery was already a major part of the Bears offense before Marshall got injured but now that he is the top receiver in Chicago look for him to be leaned on very heavily by Culter in an effort to keep the passing game on track. The Saints haven’t been able to stop wide receivers this season as they’ve given up the seventh most fantasy points in the league to the position thus far this season. Given how porous the Saints defense is (as I pointed out when talking up Forte), Jeffery should easily hit his value and could be on his way to a monster game.

Projected Stat Line – Twelve receptions for 150 yards and one touchdown

Wide Receiver – Kenny Stills – $6,100

So, as bad as the Saints defense is, Chicago’s defense is almost equally as bad. The Bears are only one step higher than the Saints as they are giving up the eighth most fantasy points to wide receivers in the league. Additionally, remember as I said in the Brees write up, the Bears are giving up the third most passing yards in the league. So while Stills and the Saints looked completely forgettable last week against Carolina, this week I expect them to bounce back nicely and look like the familiar old Saints fantasy owners know and love.

Projected Stat Line – Five receptions for 110 yards and one touchdown

Wide Receiver – Marquess WIlson – $4,500

Are you sensing a trend here? Are all of these players starting to appear similar in some way? Well they should! Marquess Wilson is another player in the Monday night matchup who warrants a fair bit of consideration. With Brandon Marshall out, Wilson slides into Marshall’s role. Last week when he was asked to fill in he stepped up and showed flashes of being dangerous. Wilson easily could have had two touchdowns if Cutler hadn’t missed him on a couple of deep passes last week. Given his great height and significant speed he should be an incredible value this week as his targets, receptions, receiving yards and maybe even touchdowns all increase with the great opportunity he steps into on Monday night.

Projected Stat Line – Seven receptions for 90 yards and one touchdown

Tight End – Jimmy Graham – $6,900

If you don’t see that trend I mentioned earlier by now then I’ll clue you in – six of the seven players examined this week are all in the Monday night game. Why so many? Well sometimes the stars align and everyone in a special game just out produces their price point for a given week. Remember earlier this season when a few people played an entire lineup of Ravens players when Joe Flacco had his monster game and those lineups paid out handsomely? Well, this well it isn’t quite as crazy as that but the weapons listed thus far going up against their respective defenses just present a scenario in which the last team to score will be the one who ends up walking away with the win. Jimmy Graham should come as no surprise being featured here as he just oozes potential anytime he steps on the field. This week against the Bears he is going up against a team that is giving up the most points to tight ends in the NFL. You’d almost have to be crazy not to try to get him into your lineup given this kind of matchup. As I’ve already hammered home earlier in this piece the Bears defense is honestly pretty bad against the pass and after being shut down over the past four games, posting only 12 receptions in that span for just over 100 yards. However, despite this cold streak Graham is still the third highest scoring tight end this season. I’m looking for him to get back on that horse and resuming his dominance against a prime matchup. Not only because the Saints need him to, but because it’s got to be eating him up inside at this point.

Projected Stat Line – Eight receptions for 105 yards and one touchdown

Kicker – Cairo Santos – $4,500

I’m going to go back to my cheap ways with kickers this week but only because I feel the value could be here with my selection of Cairo Santos. Santos hasn’t really done a whole lot to warrant much fanfare but this week he’s facing a Raiders team that is giving up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing kickers this season. I don’t really place much faith in metrics for kickers, but this one was enough to sell me on the lowest priced option available this week.

Projected Stat Line – Two field goals, four extra points

Defense – New York Jets – $4,900

This price tag I feel is a bit high for the Jets’ defense, but it’s clearly less about how they perform and more about how terribly bad their opponent is. Tennessee is giving up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing defenses this season and there just isn’t anything on the radar to suggest that will be reversing itself anytime soon, here are some reasons why. First, the Jets are actually quite efficient at getting to the quarterback with the seventh highest percentage of quarterback sacks per play in the league. Second, the Titans are throwing the second most interceptions per game in the NFL. Third, the Jets are a fairly stout rushing defense, giving up the fifth least rushing yards per game. Taken together with the fact that the Titans are dealing with several injuries on the offense right now and you’ve got a nice play with the Jets this week.

Projected Stat Line – 13 points against, five sacks and one interception

George Kritikos’ lineup is up next. Good luck as always George!

Quarterback – Derek Anderson – $5,000

There were a few solid options this week (I like Eli Manning at $7500 against a team he threw four touchdowns against earlier this season), but I went with the quarterback who has a good matchup and is at the minimum price. Anderson has looked good in limited time this season (four touchdowns with no interceptions) and has had some practice time to prepare. Tampa Bay is 24th in passing yards allowed and is giving up exactly two touchdowns per game. Anderson just needs to have a decent game to make this price worthwhile, which he should be able to do.

Projected Stat Line – 22 completions, 220 yards, two touchdowns 

Follow-Up – Russell Wilson ($8500) – Wilson was on point with my expectations, contributing a pair of passing touchdowns along with a rushing touchdown for good measure. He had over 300 yards of total offense, providing the type of return I expected at a fair price. An elite quarterback with a great matchup should deliver this kind of bottom line.

Running Back – Le’Veon Bell – $9,600

This is why you pay the minimum for Anderson. Bell has scored at least 29 points each of the last three weeks and has a nose for the end zone (five touchdowns) we were not seeing earlier this season. Against Atlanta, Bell has an opponent who is terrible against the run game as they give up the most touchdowns to running backs (19 so far). He should be able to extend his touchdown streak to four games while racking up rushing and receiving yardage in what could become a favorable shootout.

Projected Stat Line – 27 rushes, 160 yards, five catches, 40 yards, two touchdowns

Follow-Up – Chris Ivory ($5,300) – Ivory ran well when given the opportunity (73 rushing yards) but a costly fumble made his return subpar. I expected a touchdown from Ivory, but as usual, the Jets’ offense made that idea no more than a fantasy. He has a nice floor but rarely exceeds it.

Running Back – Isaiah Crowell – $6,500 

The battle of Ohio should favor the Crow. His reasonable price belies the non-existent run defense of the Bengals (third worst in touchdowns allowed, bottom five in total yards allowed to running backs). Crowell has been somewhat touchdown reliant with eight touchdowns and just 521 rushing yards but he has five games in a row with double digit carries so the yardage has been on the rise. He should be able to pile up the carries and see a trip to the end zone.

Projected Stat Line – 16 rushes, 85 yards, one touchdown 

Follow-Up – Eddie Lacy ($8,500) – Lacy had a fantastic game with 106 total yards and two touchdowns, but it was actually a case of what could have been. He missed out on a third touchdown with a muffed catch and another after leaving with a hip injury in the fourth quarter. I won’t complain though as his return exceeded the cost against a pitiful Atlanta defense.

Wide Receiver – Antonio Brown – $9,100

As you can tell, I love trends and Brown has several great ones. How about the fact that he has seven straight games of eight or more catches with at least 74 yards receiving in each? How about only one single digit fantasy point game in his last ten? There is a reason the cost is high and it is because he can deliver the goods every week. Atlanta allows the second most yardage to wide receivers so his matchup looks pretty prime for another monster week. Buy with confidence.

Projected Stat Line – ten catches, 125 yards, one touchdown

Follow-Up – DeAndre Hopkins ($7500) – This was a rough one as Hopkins had every opportunity to do well. Andre Johnson left early due to a concussion and the Jaguars defense was ripe for the picking. Instead, he ended up with just four catches for 49 yards and a lot of disappointment. I wouldn’t shy away from Hopkins in the future but I would be mindful of the price. 

Wide Receiver – T.Y. Hilton – $8,800 

Last week, Hilton faced Joe Haden and a difficult Cleveland defense. The result was 10 catches on 19 targets for 150 yards with two touchdowns. Now, he gets the Houston defense he gashed for 223 yards and a touchdown earlier this season. This bodes well for Hilton as the Houston secondary remains awful as they are third worst in receiving yards and second worst in touchdowns allowed to wide receivers. Another 200 yard game sounds unrealistic but it may not be very far off.

Projected Stat Line – eight catches, 160 yards, one touchdown

Follow-up – Randall Cobb ($8,400) – I mentioned last week that you want a piece of this game and unfortunately, I picked the wrong piece here. Jordy Nelson went off while Cobb was limited to just four catches and 58 yards. When a team scores 43 points, you expect their top touchdown receiver to be involved. He has another good matchup this week so I wouldn’t avoid him because of a down game.

Wide Receiver – Kenny Stills – $6,100

Stills had a down week against Carolina, but so did the entire New Orleans offense. He does not play a significant number of snaps but he takes advantage of every opportunity he gets. Stills have at least three catches in each of the last eight weeks with four games over 70 yards receiving. That’s a reasonable floor against a below average Bears defense that has a propensity to give up big plays. He should break one for a long score and help Drew Brees rebound after a bad week.

Projected Stat Line – five catches, 90 yards, one touchdown

Follow-Up – Kelvin Benjamin ($7,500) – A touchdown saved what was otherwise a forgettable day (two catches, 24 yards). The Panthers crushed the Saints and Benjamin was mostly a spectator instead of a star. Cam Newton focused on other receivers to rack up the points in what was an unusual tactic. He could rebound this week with a backup quarterback and a subpar defense. 

Tight End – Antonio Gates – $5,500

Gates has been a revelation for the Chargers and he will be needed this week to keep their playoff chances afloat. Given the fact that Denver has allowed the second most receptions to tight ends and Gates scored twice in their last meeting, he should be a focal point yet again. Keenan Allen could see a lot of Chris Harris so Philip Rivers has one less option in the passing game. Gates will get into the end zone while piling up the catches.

Projected Stat Line – five catches, 60 yards, one touchdown 

Follow-Up – Tim Wright ($5,100) – Just awful. A complete shutout here in what I admit was a huge gamble. Rob Gronkowski proved matchup-proof and Wright was barely in the game, much less targeted. Hard pass!

Kicker – Kai Forbath – $4,500

I know little about him, but he has multiple field goal attempts in each of the last seven games – that has resulted in at least eight fantasy points in all but one of those games, providing some consistency at a cheap price.

Projected Stat Line – two field goals, two extra points

Follow-Up – Shayne Graham ($4,500) – The Saints were surprisingly limp in this prime matchup and Graham suffered as a result. He usually performs better than this so I am not ready to write him off, but I will look elsewhere until the offense rights the ship.

Defense – Kansas City – $4,900

The Chiefs allow the fourth lowest points per game and have 34 sacks on the season, which is tenth in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Raiders score the second fewest points and are turnover prone. Add in the fact that the Chiefs are playing at home and this should be a great game for them barring a Latavius Murray 90-yard touchdown run.

Projected Stat Line – 10 points allowed, three sacks, one interception 

Follow-Up – Denver ($4,700) – Denver did slightly better than expected against the Bills. With four sacks, two interceptions, and a fumble recovery; they were able to rack up the key plays. Add in allowing just 17 points and they were a solid choice in what was a volatile week at the defensive spot.

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