Weekly Twitter Observations
Each week I will be walking through the Twitterverse extracting some of the best commentary from trusted fantasy football minds. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis.
Latavius Murray, RB OAK
Many in the fantasy community clamored for the Oakland Raiders to unleash Latavius Murray after both Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew had failed miserably all season long. Finally in week 12, everyone got a glimpse of his potential putting up 112 yards on four carries with two touchdowns before having to leave following a concussion. He sat out the next week, but head coach Tony Sparano said Murray would be the workhorse moving forward and he did not disappoint. MJD did not touch the ball and DMC served to give a few one yard carry breathers. As the 2014 season is practically over the next few games offer more of a look forward and what fantasy value the sophomore running back might provide. Pro Football Focus’ Mike Clay tweeted,
Seriously hoping Murray enters camp atop the depth chart and earns the 1 job. He has workhorse upside. Definitely a 2015 RB1 sleeper
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) December 8, 2014
I would be surprised if either McFadden or Jones-Drew are with the Raiders in 2015 and Murray is still signed for two more seasons. I might not be ready to believe him an RB1 (he still plays for the Raiders), but with no competition currently he could be a valuable asset. His ADP has already risen in the last two months from mid-50’s to mid-30’s and I would expect that to climb even higher. Unless the last three games go horribly wrong, Latavius’ ADP will not be any lower than it is currently. Make some offers.
Donte Moncrief, WR IND
In the year of rookie wide receivers, the Indianapolis Colts’ Donte Moncrief has been mostly an afterthought. For much of 2014 he has been relegated to fourth on the depth chart behind Hakeem Nicks, of all people. That distinction has finally changed at Adam Levitan noted,
Donte Moncrief out-snapped Hakeem Nicks 50-18 Sunday. However, Moncrief got just four targets on a day Andrew Luck threw 53 passes.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 8, 2014
[inlinead]The other side of the coin as Adam pointed out is that Donte is not seeing the targets to go along with the snaps to date. This should change as well as Reggie Wayne saw eight looks on Sunday and caught only one compared to Moncrief’s three grabs. I would not expect any reliable fantasy input this season unless he changes his number to 13, but looking ahead my expectations are high. Wayne is not signed next season and even if he returns I would not expect it to be anything more than a WR3 role. Hilton will be drawing the tough coverage and Moncrief has one of the best quarterbacks throwing him the ball. Currently I would place him at 29th overall for wide receivers in dynasty and depending on the offseason could move him higher.
Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT
In late July and early August Le’Veon Bell was ranked around the fifth or sixth running back in terms of dynasty. Today he is the clear number one, though overall for dynasty he likely falls outside of the top 10 based on his position. Through the first 10 games of 2014 Le’Veon was practically a lock for 100 plus total yards but the touchdowns did not follow making him a dependable but not elite asset. Over the last three weeks everything has changed as Dale Lolley remarked,
#Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell just became first RB since Walter Payton in 1977 to record three consecutive games with 200-plus yards
— Dale Lolley (@dlolleyor) December 7, 2014
Bell has also added five touchdowns over that span and his carrying owners to fantasy glory. The only negative that most fantasy owners and analysts will be able to make a case against the 22 year old was posed by DLF’s Nick Whalen this week,
Anyone worried about workload for L Bell? At 313 touches on the year, on pace for near 400.
— Nick Whalen (@_NickWhalen) December 8, 2014
Adam Pfeifer also highlighted how Bell is reaching DeMarco Murray level touches of late tweeting,
Le’Veon Bell is averaging almost 29 offensive touches per game over his last five outings. #Steelers
— Adam Pfeifer (@aPfeiferFF) December 7, 2014
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is not worried about his workload this season and Pittsburgh tried easing him into his role by sharing reps to begin the year. I would expect the Steelers to bring in another back that can provide some reps to be shared next season, but also see Bell pushing for high 300’s in touches again. In the end if you want an elite running back you are going to have to worry about wear and tear and the potential for injury.
Vincent Jackson, WR TB
Coming into 2014 the 31-year old Vincent Jackson was still being drafted as a wide receiver three in dynasty with an ADP around 30th at his position. As this season has unfolded though, it has become apparent that Jackson cannot even be counted on for weekly WR3 numbers. Rich Hribar provided a perfect assessment on Vincent Jackson’s struggles in fantasy this season, touchdowns, or lack thereof.
Over the past 6 games, VJax has 2 more catches (34) on the same tgts (59) as Mike Evans, but Evans has 95 more yards and an 8/0 TD gap.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) December 8, 2014
Running mate Mike Evans has taken fantasy by storm and will undoubtedly be the top fantasy rookie at the end of the season. While Jackson has 24 more targets on the season, Evans has more yards. Vincent also has three more red zone looks than Evans, but has continued to fail to convert. In week 14, Jackson had his season highs in both catches and yards so the production remains, but in fantasy touchdowns are still needed to remain relevant. If he fails to score the remainder of the year his ADP could fall into the 50’s at wide receiver as most people are not looking for a 32-year old filling a roster spot. At that price, I would still be buying as his size and Evans drawing more coverage could continue to provide value, particularly if the touchdowns follow the volume of targets and yards.
Mike Wallace, WR MIA
Early in his career, Mike Wallace was one of the preeminent deep threats. Now 28 and with the Dolphins, his numbers have been consistently dropping as Josh Moore points out,
Mike Wallace YPC average last 5 years: 21.0, 16.6, 13.1, 12.7, 12.3. Hasn’t had 70 yards in a game since W3. #Dolphins
— Josh Moore (@4for4_Josh) December 8, 2014
Through the first six games, Wallace caught five touchdowns propping up sometimes meager yardage efforts. Since then though the yardage has remained low and he has recorded only two touchdowns over the last seven games. The emergence of Jarvis Landry has also continued to reduce opportunities. Over the last six weeks Landry has four more targets than Wallace, but 13 additional catches and double the scores. As Wallace continues to get older and slower I cannot see ranking him ahead of Landry any longer in dynasty.
Week 15 Fantasy Advice
Below are just a few stats and observations as you look ahead to your week 15 matchups. Picking the correct players in the right spot usually make the difference between advancing and sitting out the championship.
LaGarrette Blount, RB NE
#Dolphins have allowed 528 yards & 2 TDs on 90 carries (5.87 YPC) to opposing RBs the past 3 weeks. Visit #Patriots in Week 15.
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) December 8, 2014
LeGarrette Blount dominating touches in the last three weeks. 42 carries for 202 yards & 2 TDs in that span. Struggling MIA rush D up next.
— John Paulsen (@4for4_John) December 8, 2014
It can be difficult to trust a Bill Belichick coached running back in a critical matchup, but all signs points to LaGarrette Blount to continue to produce in a solid matchup. Joique Bell, RB DET
Not much talk about it in these parts, but Joique Bell quietly helping teams get to & advance in playoffs, w 2 good matchups (MIN/@CHI) left
— Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) December 8, 2014
Reggie Bush’s return did nothing to minimize the fantasy day Joique Bell had on Sunday. Bush has actually been completely unusable in fantasy this season outside of a week three matchup against Green Bay. Bell is another running back who may just be the right flex to help you advance.
Cincinnati Bengals Running Backs
Only 14 carries to split b/w Hill (8) and Bernard (6) yesterday. Schedule only gets worse (CLE, DEN).
— Josh Moore (@4for4_Josh) December 8, 2014
Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard are locked into a fairly even timeshare and as Josh Moore points out the next two matchups are not favorable. If you are choosing between the two I believe you have to lean Hill as he has produced more of late and is more likely to get goal line looks. Still, if you can avoid using either I would suggest another option when looking for the optimal lineup. Cleveland Browns Running Backs
Browns are going to ground and pound the Bengals next week just like they did Week 10. Both backs could be quality starts.
— Raymond Summerlin (@RMSummerlin) December 8, 2014
A reversal of strategy when it comes to dual running backs, both Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West could prove useful in week 15. Crowell is clearly the better option with the goal line looks but West could prove to be a decent reach. Put it this way, if you could get 12 touches from West or 12 from Bernard, which would you prefer? Call is closer than you think given the matchup.
Latavius Murray, RB OAK
Raiders play at the Chiefs this week. Chiefs have allowed two rushing touchdowns this season – both to Latavius Murray.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) December 8, 2014
Latavius Murray is licking his chops to get another shot at that Swiss cheese #Chiefs run D, that got gashed by a clown car of Cardinals RBs
— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) December 8, 2014
Also mentioned above, Latavius Murray received the lion’s share of touches last week and faces a Chiefs run defense that he has already dismantled and continues to give up healthy amounts of yards. Murray is likely at worst a FLEX option in week 15 and could be the RB2 to take you to the championship.
Special call out to Pro Football Focus’ Premium Stats for providing a great tool to pull some of the data and information in this article.
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