Dynasty Mythbusters: Dan “Boom” Herron

Jacob Feldman

herron

Another week is now in the rear view mirror and the injuries to fantasy starters continue to pile up. When you add in aging veterans who are in rapid decline there is opportunity for a lot of young players to step on up to the plate and show what they are made of. Some of them look like the stars of tomorrow, but we know from the past that most of them are just a flash in the pan. Of course the tricky part is figuring out who are those special exceptions – that is where I come in. For those of you unfamiliar with the Dynasty Mythbusters series, the goal of the article is to analyze certain trends, potential breakouts or just downright bad play in an attempt to predict what we can expect in the future.

Am I always right? Definitely not. But I did suggest that you sell, sell, sell on Trent Richardson very early in the season last year (before it was a trendy thing to say!) when you could get top five running back prices for him, and ignore the week one “breakouts” of Jerome Simpson and Leonard Hankerson just to name a few.

The fantasy community as a whole tends to have a very strong tendency to overreact to small sample sizes. This is especially true when it comes to early season production. After all, it is only natural after months and months of buildup, thinking your team is great, to get disappointed when your stud disappoints. Don’t go trading them for pennies on the dollar. They will be back. It works in the opposite direction as well. We all like the feeling of grabbing that virtual unknown and watching them turn into the next Jimmy Graham. The problem is the vast majority of the time they don’t pan out and trading your first round pick or an every week starter away for him would be a major mistake.

Through this series, I’ll do my best to focus on guys who are likely to be talked up as potential waiver additions or who are end of the bench guys on most rosters who you might be able to snag with a reasonable trade offer.

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This week I’m going to go back to the fantasy well that keeps on giving, the running back position of the Colts. While Trent Richardson is the “starter,” he continues to be the lesser part of a committee attack by the high powered, Andrew Luck-led offense. Ahmad Bradshaw broke his leg almost a month ago and he still has more fantasy points than Richardson by a very significant margin. Dan “Boom” Herron has stepped into the void left by Bradshaw and is showing yet again that the rushing struggles for Richardson are not the fault of anyone or anything but Richardson himself. The big question is if Herron is the back to own going forward or not.

Dan Herron, RB IND

Weeks 11 & 12: 20 rushes for 153 yards and one touchdown. Seven receptions for 39 yards. Two fumbles lost.

As with most things, it is important to understand where someone is coming from. Herron was a highly recruited four-star athlete from Ohio. He elected to stay in his home state and play for the Buckeyes. He had a minor part of the running back time share for his first two years before taking the lead role as a junior in 2010. His 1,155 yards and 16 touchdowns on 216 carries got a lot of notice and many were expecting him to improve as a Senior, possibly entering into the awards discussion if he took the next step. That is when things started to go poorly for the Buckeyes.

Herron was one of the players, along with quarterback Terrelle Pryor, who were involved in the Ohio State scandal and cover-up involving player benefits. This, combined with some issues stemming from some pay for a summer job Herron had, resulted in him being suspended for almost half of his senior season. The team as a whole, now without their head coach as a result of the scandal and with Pryor in the NFL, didn’t bounce back to their 2010 glory, ending Herron’s college career on a bit of a sour note.

By the time the 2012 NFL draft rolled around, Herron’s stock had been deflated quite a bit. Some people called the Ohio State scandal a red flag about Herron’s character. Others pointed to the highly talented offensive line he was running behind and the dual threat of Pryor and gave them the credit for Herron’s productivity. Some also wondered if he had the athletic profile to be an NFL caliber running back. Regardless of the reasons, Herron slid all the way to the sixth round in the NFL draft where he was selected by the Bengals.

Herron spent almost his entire rookie year on the practice squad of the Bengals behind fellow running backs BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cedric Peerman, Brian Leonard and Bernard Scott. He remained with the Bengals through the 2013 offseason before being signed by the Colts early in the 2013 season. He has bounced back and forth between the Colts’ practice squad and the 53 man roster ever since, but hasn’t seen a significant number of offensive snaps until the last few weeks. During those two weeks, he has had only one fewer rush than Richardson but out gained him 153 yards to 54. Herron has also been used in the passing game while Richardson has not had a catch. Herron is clearly the back to own for the rest of this season but will he keep his value heading into next year?

The Good: One of the biggest positives for Herron is he plays for the Colts. With Luck at the helm, defenses are constantly worried about the pass and accounting for weapons like TY Hilton and Dwayne Allen. This tends to produce a very soft front for when the Colts do decide to run the ball. They also like having their running backs involved in the passing game. In other words, there is the opportunity for a lot of productivity from the Colts running back position.

When you look at the depth chart, Bradshaw clearly has a little bit left in the tank, but he’ll turn 29 this offseason, is a free agent, and is coming off yet another lower leg injury. Vick Ballard is under contract for the 2015 season, but he has only 13 carries in the last two seasons to go with ACL and Achilles tears. Then there is Richardson. My feelings about him are very well known as I’ve been a very vocal opponent of his since before the 2013 season began. In recent weeks he’s the proud owner of awe inspiring stat lines like six rushes for zero yards and eight rushes for 12 yards, sandwiching a “good” game of 13 carries for 42 yards. The Colts might not admit it publicly yet, but they messed up on this one and the Browns of all organizations were the smart ones. There is a definite opening for a quality running back to take over down the road. Herron is an exclusive rights free agent, meaning if the Colts want him back he is all theirs.

From a talent perspective, Herron isn’t going to blow you away. He definitely isn’t going to be mistaken for Chris Johnson in a foot race, but his straight line speed is good enough. Just don’t expect a lot of 49 yard runs like he had last weekend. He’s going to get run down by faster defenders most of the time. What he does have is a very nice first step and the ability to accelerate and decelerate faster than almost everyone else on the field. This allows him to hit the holes very quickly once they open up while getting upfield for a quick gain. He also has decent hands for a running back and while he definitely isn’t on Bradshaw’s level in pass protection, he is a very willing pass blocker and can hold his own most of the time.

The Bad: One of the biggest knocks against Herron (and what has likely kept him on the practice squad most of the time), is he lacks that “wow factor” a lot of teams look for in a running back. He has decent size for the position, but he isn’t going to impress you with his power runs. He is very quick, but his top end speed is a little limited, so he doesn’t hit the homerun very often. He also doesn’t have a super impressive jump cut or spin move to help him break tackles and avoid defenders. He is above average in a lot of areas and has impressive burst, but he lacks the special quality the top running backs have.

The other major issue Herron has had over his two starts is ball security. He has played less than half of the Colts’ snaps over the last two weeks in large part due to a pair of lost fumbles over that time. While this wasn’t a major issue in his past, fumbling twice in 27 touches is going to get him on the bench pretty quickly, no matter how bad the other options might be. If he is going to keep his current role or expand on it, he needs to hang on to the football.

The Ugly Truth: When I look at Herron, I see a running back with above average talent in a nearly ideal situation. He has the skills to catch the ball and pass block on a team that throws the ball more than most. He is also very quick to the holes and tends to hit the vast majority of them before they close. This allows him to get what is blocked for him and to fall forward for a few extra yards. He isn’t going to make a lot of defenders miss in the open field and isn’t going to win a lot of foot races, but he will occasionally power through tackles or make a big play. Overall, he lacks that special quality the best running backs have, but he is a better fit for his team than a lot of other current starting running backs are for their teams.

In the short term, I expect Herron to slowly steal a larger share of the workload from Richardson, assuming Herron can hold on to the ball. He should be a solid RB2 in PPR leagues with upside in the lower RB1 ranks if he gets into the end zone. He has a skill set which fits well with the offense. He isn’t special, but he is definitely good enough to take advantage of the soft boxes the Colts are often facing when they spread the defense out with their passing game.

In the long run, I expect Herron to be re-signed by the Colts and be given an opportunity to be involved next year. The potential problem for Herron and his fantasy owners is above average talents tend to be replaced eventually. Just ask people who owned Shonn Greene a few years back or Zac Stacy more recently. It could be as soon as this offseason or more likely a year or two down the road, but it is almost certain the Colts will look to upgrade the position to someone who brings a little bit more to the table, pushing Herron into more of a committee or backup role eventually. If the hype builds this offseason and his value climbs, I would be looking to sell him.

Final Verdict: He should be a solid RB2 for the fantasy playoffs against a relatively soft schedule in terms of run defense. Long term, I think he’ll be back with the Colts and given a chance to win the starting job. Overall, he lacks the special quality most long term starters have at the position, which means he is likely to be replaced at some point down the road.

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jacob feldman