Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Thirteen

Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. We’ll pick one player from each team who we have our eye on and describe why their weekend performance is a key one for them in relation to their dynasty value.

Early Games

Cleveland at Buffalo

One benefit of a down year from Joe Haden means his tackle numbers are seeing an increase as targets are up. With 58 solo tackles so far, Haden has already tied his career high with four more weeks remaining. Kyle Orton has a tendency to lock into one receiver so Haden could have another strong game and represent a sell high to a playoff team in IDP leagues without a trade deadline.

Since the bye week for the Bills (in week nine), Robert Woods has led the team in targets (24), receptions (17), and yards (185). Some of this may have to do with teams game planning towards Sammy Watkins, but it also has to do with the team completely removing Mike Williams from the offensive scheme (he has just four snaps in three games since the bye). Orton is comfortable with Woods and he is a solid complement to Watkins, perhaps leading the team again in targets if the Browns focus their gaze on the rookie star.

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Carolina at Minnesota

Normally I avoid this running back situation, but this is the area Carolina will need to focus on Sunday to beat the Vikings. My bet would be on Jonathan Stewart to lead the team in rushing as he is running through contact better than we have seen in the last three years. Add in his versatility in the passing game, both as a receiver and a plus blocker, and he could be a nice option as the final playoff push (or first round matchup) is underway.

As if this running game isn’t already resembling Carolina’s, Joe Banyard decided now would be the time to muddy it up just a little more. Like the creepy uncle that invited himself to Thanksgiving dinner, Banyard took it upon himself to make his presence known (5.2 yards per carry last week). Before that game, Banyard had totaled just 13 snaps, but somehow had 30 snaps in the game against Green Bay. With Jerick McKinnon now a scratch for Sunday’s game and a juicy matchup with Carolina, Joe B-Won Kenobi could have some solid value.

Tennessee at Houston

Over the last four games, Bishop Sankey has averaged 3.7 yards per carry – that stands out more when you consider Shonn Greene is at 2.1 over the same time period. Sankey hasn’t lived up to expectations but I think they were too high to begin with. He leads the team in yards per carry (3.9), yards after contact (2.5), and has the highest missed tackle rate (0.20) on the season. If the coaching staff decides to commit to Sankey more, he has a chance to establish himself as a nice RB2 for a dynasty owner.

If Ryan Fitzpatrick gets his starting gig and no one cares, did it really happen? The Harvard alum is given yet another shot thanks to an unfortunate Ryan Mallett injury, but that is only due to their late season playoff hopes. Any loss will put Fitzpatrick at risk to lose the job to rookie Tom Savage. Savage owners would be happy to see how he does, but Fitzpatrick is going to be the better presence for any Houston skill position owners.

New York Giants at Jacksonville

It is hard to say anything more about Odell Beckham that isn’t already known but I will try. Over the last four weeks, Beckham is second in the NFL in receptions (31), yards (503) and missed tackles (seven) but leads the league in yards after the catch (167). He won’t maintain that pace, but it shows the type of dominance Beckham is capable of. Against Jacksonville, he faces a pass defense in the bottom ten in yards, receptions, and touchdowns allowed to wide receivers. Let the good times roll!

In his first week back from injury, Marcedes Lewis did not make the type of impression that was expected. While he played 88% of the offensive snaps, totaling one catch for negative five yards is not the way to endear yourself to the fantasy community. I would monitor his relationship with Blake Bortles to see if a trust blooms from the fertilizer that is the Jacksonville offense.

Oakland at St. Louis

While I would love to wax poetic about Latavius Murray, his uncertain status forces me to go in another direction. Let’s return to Derek Carr and his rookie season. While the overall numbers look good (14 touchdowns against nine interceptions, 59% completion), Carr has regressed some over the last four weeks (5:4 touchdown to interceptions, 56% completion). He may be just experiencing the hangover of the longer NFL season, but I would like to see him rebound before I am ready to move him ahead of the three first round rookie quarterbacks.

While Kenny Britt has had the gaudier numbers, Stedman Bailey remains my favorite Rams’ receiver down the stretch. Bailey’s catch rate (68%), sure hands (zero drops), and plus blocking will keep him on the field and in the crosshairs of Shaun Hill. Even if he is not starting for your team, Bailey may be playing his way into a starting role for next year if the Rams fail to upgrade their receiving core yet again.

San Diego at Baltimore

Watching the Chargers’ backfield play out these last two weeks has been painful. Ryan Mathews (59 snaps), Branden Oliver (41) and Donald Brown (39) are being given similar playing time in the offense. The only thing that is clear is their roles as Mathews is the primary runner, Oliver is the pass receiver and Brown is their primary blocking back. I expect Mathews to be the only one with value down the stretch while Oliver is the hold for 2015.

C.J. Mosley has been an absolute revelation for the Ravens. I saw plenty of his college film (thanks to my Bama loving wife) so I expected a strong contributor, but he has shown tackling prowess that has been unseen in Baltimore since Ray Lewis. Mosley will never be a consistent big play guy, but is invaluable in tackle heavy scoring leagues. With three games of eight or more solo tackles in his last four, Mosley is not feeling the impact of the long season so play him through with confidence.

Cincinnati at Tampa Bay

Sorry folks, but the Mohamed Sanu help is officially over. A.J. Green has returned to his dominant ways the last two weeks, leaving Sanu 13 targets (eight catches, 71 yards, one touchdown) and a secondary role in the offense. I would try to sell for anything at this point as his future is unclear. The plus matchup here might give him one more game to inflate the stats.

Sifting through the clearance rack that is the Tampa Bay running game, Charles Sims is still my choice for any fantasy relevance in 2014. The coaching staff can’t decide however as last week saw a crazy even split between Sims (26 snaps), Bobby Rainey (26 snaps) and Doug Martin (27 snaps). Every one of these players should be owned and on the bench – never start them and keep your hair intact for a few more weeks.

Washington at Indianapolis

Colt McCoy is back in the starting spot for what has been a turbulent offense. What will be nice is that McCoy will be forced to throw in this one as they will likely be trailing the Colts early – that will test his abilities and let Washington know if they have something here beyond a journeyman on a hot streak.

Trent Richardson falls further down the rabbit hole as Dan Herron is now the starter in Indy. While TRich has been ineffective, I really do not buy Herron at all. He has struggled to fight through contact or break tackles, essentially relying on what the offensive line provides. Against Washington, Herron won’t find much as they are top five in run defense. Tread carefully.

New Orleans at Pittsburgh

With Brandin Cooks out, Pierre Thomas was utilized as expected to the tune of six catches on seven targets for 37 yards. I think he will see the lion’s share of playing time in the backfield to offset that loss and allow Kenny Stills to take a few deep routes for Drew Brees to find. Pittsburgh has proven vulnerable to underneath routes to tight ends and running backs so I see Thomas taking advantage.

With LaGarrette Blount gone, how much does Dri Archer become a factor in the backfield? While Le’Veon Bell has been very effective, the Steelers may look to the rookie to be more involved in the passing game. Archer has just 12 offensive touches on the year on just 39 total snaps, numbers he may be able to surpass in the next few weeks.

Afternoon Games

Arizona at Atlanta

Second year receiver Jaron Brown was given 46 snaps on offense last week against Seattle, five more than rookie John Brown. While Jaron struggled with a pair of drops, he led receivers in targets (six) and catches (three). Life after Larry Fitzgerald has continued to look more interesting if the team lets him go this off-season and the other Brown just might be a key part of the future as well.

Recently, I have seen debates around Matt Ryan and if he deserves a seat in the top ten, much less the top five. Ryan is my seventh rated passer as he has improved his yards per attempt (7.2, up from 6.9 in 2013), touchdown to interception ratio (2.1:1 from 1.5:1) and sack rate (3.1% from 4.1%) in 2014. Ryan has a tough matchup against a good Arizona pass defense but with the division “race” still undecided, I expect the Falcons to use their passing game to fuel the offense.

New England at Green Bay

I have been resisting Brandon LaFell, but boasting three games in his last four with 10+ targets suggest he needs to be taken seriously. Tom Brady loves the big-bodied receiver and will need his help in a game expected to be a barnburner. I don’t like LaFell’s prospects beyond this year, but he can contribute to a playoff team and can be a good trade chip in leagues where there is no deadline for rebuilding rosters.

With Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner at the corners, Aaron Rodgers may need to look for secondary options. This could be one of those weeks where Davante Adams is given extended looks. In the game against Miami earlier in the year, Adams managed six catches on seven targets as the Miami corners gave Rodgers pause at times to look to Randall Cobb. Adams has a great future in Green Bay and this could be another game that flashes his potential.

Sunday Night Game

Denver at Kansas City

For people worried about Demaryius Thomas’ prospects after Peyton Manning retires, he is showing an incredible amount of consistency. In his last eight games, Thomas has at least seven catches in each and has gone over 100 yards in seven of those games as well. Even if he regresses, the bar is so high right now that even a 20% decline makes him a top five receiver. Thomas will likely be a key player in championship runs this year and for the next five years at a minimum.

From a dominant receiver from one with a dominant season on his ledger, Dwayne Bowe has the most receptions among wide receivers (44) without scoring a touchdown this year. Blame that on Alex Smith who has not thrown a single touchdown (among his 14) to a wide receiver in 2014. Bowe has languished in this Andy Reid-Alex Smith era and become no more than an afterthought amongst dynasty owners.

Monday Games

Miami at New York Jets

Injuries and a constantly changing game plan left Charles Clay in limbo within the Miami offense. However, he has at least six targets (and five catches) in each of the last three games, something that only happened once in 2014 prior to that stretch. While the season may still be a disappointing one, Clay could be a steady source of production into the playoffs for tight end hungry (and patient) teams.

Inconsistent usage has doomed Chris Ivory’s season. A big proponent of his prior to the season, it actually has been less about injuries and more about the coaching staff. Ivory is third in the NFL in missed tackles forced (41) despite having just 130 carries. By comparison, Jeremy Hill has just 16 missed tackles on 131 carries. Ivory deserves better than this and a new coaching staff could be the best thing that could happen to him.

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