Daily Optimized Lineup: Week Thirteen

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As part of that experience we at DLF felt it might be of particular interest to our readers to provide them with an optimized lineup that they should be able to plug into a Head to Head or 50/50 game and fully expect to win some money.

Last week was just a really weird week. The Bears offense who had been performing high all season suddenly looked like a high school team with Cutler only throwing for 130 yards. Meanwhile, the Packers got away from their high passing ways and decided to run the ball a lot. The week was littered with similar head-scratchers. We did hit on a lot of our higher risk picks but the safe bets seemed to go right out the window last week. Unfortunately, when they went out the window they took a lot of our money with them.

Let’s try and turn that back around this week!

Quarterback – Ben Roethlisberger – $8,800

Roethlisberger has a higher price tag than in prior weeks, but much of that is due to the explosiveness his offense has displayed coupled with the matchup they have with the New Orleans Saints which should produce a pretty nice shootout. Both Pittsburgh and New Orleans are among the league’s top passing offenses with Pittsburgh ranking fourth and New Orleans ranking third in passing yards per game this season. So, why not go with Drew Brees over Big Ben? Well, going with Roethlisberger saves us $700 worth of salary cap space first off. Secondly, New Orleans is giving up the tenth most passing yards to opposing defenses this season. Finally, the Saints are giving up the ninth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks or seventh most of those teams who didn’t play on Thursday. Roethlisberger has proven time and time again that he has no problem airing it out, something he will have to step up and do in order to beat a Saints offenses who has also proven quite the ability to air it out as well.

Projected Stat Line – 20 completions for 330 yards and three touchdowns

Follow-Up – Jay Cutler – ($8,800) – Jay Cutler was quite possibly the worst possible selection last week unfortunately. Nothing Cutler did seemed to even resemble a player with his price tag and matchup. Against the lowly Tampa Bay defense Cutler only managed to throw for 130 yards. I’m so sick from his performance I’m just going to end my look back with that one, single statistic.

Running Back – Arian Foster – $8,700

Foster has been out the past few week, so there will naturally be some apprehension in playing him this week. However, he has been absolutely resurgent this season and despite missing several games this year, he is still the eighth leading rusher in the NFL. If taken on a yards per game basis, Foster is actually the second leading rushing producer behind only DeMarco Murray. This week, Foster should be fully healed and will face a Tennessee Titans team he torched for over 150 rushing yards and two touchdowns earlier in the season. That same Titans defense is currently giving up the most fantasy points to running backs in the NFL. Houston, meanwhile, rushes for the third most yards per game in the NFL and looks poised to continue that trend this week.

Projected Stat Line – 25 rushes for 100 yards and one touchdown, four receptions for 30 receiving yards and one touchdown.

Follow-Up – LeSean McCoy – ($7,700) – LeSean McCoy was a great pick last week, rushing for 130 yards and one touchdown. This performance was his best of the season (prior to his Thanksgiving game) and was well worth his $7,700 price tag.

Running Back – Denard Robinson – $7,200

I’m not a very big fan of playing players from the Jaguars this season as they just haven’t had given fantasy players that much to be thrilled about. This week, however, Denard Robinson may be a great player to play under the radar. Jacksonville’s opponent, the New York Giants, are giving up the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Things appear to be getting worse for the Giants as well with an average of 206 rushing yards coming against then over the past three games. While I don’t expect Robinson to have a game as incredible as that, he should do quite well against a defense that just doesn’t seem able to stop the rush this season.

Projected Stat Line – 18 rushes for 85 yards and one touchdown

Follow-Up – Isaiah Crowell – ($5,500) – Isaiah Crowell went out and had himself a game with Ben Tate out of the picture. He rushed for just 88 yards, but had two huge touchdowns which allowed him to have his best fantasy game of the season. As such, his price on FanDuel already rose $1,400! Luckily we were able to take advantage of a great deal before this huge jump in price.

Wide Receiver – Antonio Brown – $9,200

It’s safe to say $9200 is a hefty price to pay for any player on FanDuel. However, the price tag just may be worth it for Antonio Brown this week. As I mentioned above the Saints passing defense is just not up to par with a player on the caliber of Brown. New Orleans has proven time and time again that they just don’t have the secondary to compete with elite receivers. When you factor in the likelihood that this game will be a high octane shootout and you’ve got to want a piece this game in as many ways as possible on the passing end of these teams. Look for Brown to have a monster game and lead the league in offensive production this week.

Projected Stat Line – Twelve receptions for 150 yards and one touchdown

Follow-Up – Alshon Jeffery – ($8200) – Alshon Jeffery was an unfortunate victim of Jay Culter’s miserable play. The fact that I even have to type his name again in this article makes me feel dirty. The only bright spot here was the fact Jeffery scored Chicago’s lone passing touchdown, which is frankly the only think Cutler did right all day.

Wide Receiver – Martavis Bryant – $7,000

Remember that part in Brown’s write up where I said you should try to get as many pieces on the passing side of the game as possible for this game? Yeah, I really meant it! It doesn’t hurt matters when you realize that Bryant has been one of the top performing wide receivers in the second half of the season. Over the past five games, Bryant has scored a very impressive six touchdowns. He has also recorded 16 receptions and 321 receiving yards. Think about that for a minute – 38% of his receptions have gone for touchdowns. So yes, he is a bit touchdown dependent, but he is also facing a defense that has given up the fourth most passing touchdowns over the past three games. However, these are exactly the kind of players we want to target in an expected shootout.

Projected Stat Line – Five receptions for 105 yards and two touchdowns

Follow-Up – Mike Evans – ($8,400) – Mike Evans seems to be an early favorite to be the rookie offensive player of the year and last week’s performance while not helping that possibility a whole lot, didn’t exactly hurt it, either. Evans did score his eighth touchdown of the season – his four straight game with a score. He did this despite only notching three receptions on the day, so the performance was good, but clearly not great given his price tag.

Wide Receiver – Kenny Stills – $5,100

Yep, here is another player from the game between the Saints and the Steelers, this time a bit of hedging with a player on the Saints side. Kenny Stills had to take a bit of a backseat when Brandin Cooks came to town, not because they play the same position, but because there just too many mouths to feed and it turns out Cooks ended up eating into Stills’ production. However, now that Cooks is out, Stills appears to be back on Brees’ radar with eight receptions and 98 yards last week. On the defensive side of things, the Steelers have been giving up a lot of passing touchdowns as of late, with an average of two touchdowns coming through the air over the past three games. Stills could be a very nice low priced but high upside play here with the potential to see a lot of action in a shootout.

Projected Stat Line – Five receptions for 85 yards

Follow-Up – Davante Adams – ($5,300) – Davante Adams was a risk coming into the game last week, we knew that. However, we could have never guess he would have his worst statistical game since he became a part of the Packers passing attack. Lots of weird things went down last week in the NFL and this was certainly one of them.

Tight End – Jared Cook – $5,100

Jared Cook is the Rams top passing weapon, so he deserves an automatic look when you consider that the Rams are going against one of the worst teams in the NFL in the Raiders. Oakland, you see, has been giving up a lot of passing touchdowns, the second most out of the NFL over the past three games. While he hasn’t been burning up the NFL, he does provide a lot of upside if he has the right matchup which this very well could be. Given Cook’s low price with the significant upside present in this game, it almost screams a play here, especially since we can cram so many more quality players into our lineup.

Projected Stat Line – Four receptions for 55 yards and one touchdown

Follow-Up – Antonio Gates – ($6,300) – Despite having a really nice matchup versus the Rams, Gates just didn’t do a whole lot with it. Having posted a stat line of only two receptions and 14 yards this was another one of those weird things that occurred last week.

Kicker – Mason Crosby – $4,900

After the Packers’ performance last week, I can’t help but feel they are going to try to reestablish their offensive performance this week. Given the fact they will need every point they can get against a Belichick-led Patriots team, look for them to add field goals, if possible, even from long distances. The Packers will also find ways to get into the end zone, that much is obvious. When they do, Crosby gets to add to his total that way as well. Green Bay is going to lean heavily on him in order to keep up with another high powered offense, so he should produce well this week.

Projected Stat Line – Three field goals, two extra points

Follow-Up – Mason Crosby – ($4,900) – Mason Crosby made an extra-long 48 yard field goal which definitely made things nice for us. He also was able to capitalize on three extra points that made him pretty close to fair value for his price.

Defense – Minnesota Vikings – $4,500

Carolina just hasn’t been that much of a threat this season, so the fact they fact a defense that has been surprising in its play thus far is intriguing for me. That defense, of course, is the Minnesota Vikings. Doubt them as I may have throughout the season, they hang tough against high end opponents. The Vikings are actually the seventh stingiest defense against the pass and while they are fairly middle of the road against the rush, the Panthers are near the bottom in the NFL in rushing yards per game. For such a low price, the Vikings make for a great value play this week.

Projected Stat Line – 17 points against, three sacks and two interceptions

Follow-Up – Denver Broncos – ($4,900) – Well, who saw that coming? I don’t think anyone saw a shootout occurring between the Broncos and the Dolphins, of all teams. If a defense gives up 36 points like Denver did, then it’s really hard to get any value out of them. This pick just topped off a weird, weird week in the NFL and for me personally – one that just makes you shake your head and forces you to re-group for the next week.

George Kritikos’ picks follow below. Good luck!

Quarterback – Philip Rivers – $7,900

I like Rivers’ price (10th at the position) along with a great matchup against a Baltimore defense that has been terrible. The slump in his last three games (only two touchdowns total after seven straight multi-touchdown games) has deflated the price. Baltimore’s defense is bottom five in passing yardage allowed and bottom ten in passing touchdowns allowed, which was mostly with the help of Jimmy Smith, their best cornerback who has since gone on injured reserve. Rivers will have his pick of matchups here and a few deep passes should complement a highly efficient day.

Projected Stat Line – 26 completions, 275 yards, two touchdowns

Follow-Up – Andrew Luck ($10,300) – I don’t know what to say here. Luck had one of the easiest match-ups, but the ineffective Jaguars offense allowed them to coast. It resulted in a meager 253 yards passing and just one touchdown. While the 49 rushing yards helped, it was his poorest fantasy performance of the season (15 points). Using 17% of your budget on 15 points is an easy way to find yourself at the bottom.

Running Back – Tre Mason – $6,000

Averaging 21 touches over the past four games makes him a bellcow back for the Rams. Add in a change in quarterback a week ago along with a stout defense and the Rams should continue to run Mason hard. In Oakland, he faces a bottom ten run defense in yards and touchdowns allowed and the second most run upon defense. All this adds up to a nice volume game with potential for a touchdown that will make him worth the price.

Projected Stat Line – 22 rushes, 90 yards, one catch, ten yards, one touchdown

Follow-Up – DeMarco Murray ($9,000) – Murray had the yards (143 total), but failed to get into the end zone. That will happen if Tony Romo decides to throw for four touchdowns, including two in the red zone. Murray ended up being a disappointment when you consider 15% of the salary was used here.

Running Back – Rashad Jennings – $7,100

Jennings is a great example of a player seeing price suppression due to a few rough matchups. San Francisco and Dallas are both top rated run defenses that made his return look tepid. I expect that to change this week with a Jacksonville defense hemorrhaging yardage and touchdowns to running backs. Jennings should see a lot of work here and be very productive with the opportunities.

Projected Stat Line – 18 rushes, 75 yards, five catches, 50 yards, one touchdown

Follow-Up – Isaiah Crowell ($5,500) – Crowell took advantage with Ben Tate no longer on the team. While he only had 12 carries, the Crow was fed to the tune of 88 yards and two touchdowns. Atlanta was a very favorable matchup and he did not disappointment, providing a lot of value at this price.

Wide Receiver – Odell Beckham, Jr. – $8,500 

Beckham is second in the NFL with 31 catches and 503 yards over the past four weeks. Keep in mind, this came against defenses in Seattle, Dallas, Indianapolis and San Francisco that are all among the best in the NFL against wide receivers. Now, going against Jacksonville (among the worst at defending opposing receivers), Beckham should have some opportunity to put up video game numbers. Whether the game is out of hand early may dictate Beckham’s usage, but he is capable of big plays and should be likely to have his fourth 100 yard receiving game in the last five games.

Projected Stat Line – Eight catches, 140 yards, one touchdown

Follow-Up – T.Y. Hilton ($8,500) – While Luck disappointed, Hilton was able to salvage his value with several big plays. Hilton accounted for roughly 50% of Luck’s yardage, managing four catches and 122 yards along with the only passing touchdown thrown. Adding in 15 rushing yards was a nice bonus as well. Hilton was worth the money, but didn’t really outperform it.

Wide Receiver – Josh Gordon – $8,100

Gordon wasn’t a target, but I am happy to use him this week in a neutral matchup. His first game back resulted in eight catches and 120 yards in a plus matchup against the Falcons. With the Bills on tap, the running game will get muted by their tough run defense and force the Browns to throw consistently. The weather won’t be a factor in Buffalo, but the pass rush of Buffalo may resemble a blizzard to Brian Hoyer, making him throw to his first look often.

Projected Stat Line – nine catches, 125 yards, one touchdown

Follow-up – Andre Caldwell ($5,600) – This was a gamble that Emmanuel Sanders and/or Julius Thomas would be out. Sanders ended up playing and Caldwell was nonexistent. It didn’t work out and may you have mercy on my soul.

Wide Receiver – Kenny Stills – $5,100

A nice game last week (see below) requires a repeat at an excellent price. Pittsburgh is a decent opponent as they allow a lot of yards to wide receivers but have restricted end zone production. That’s ok for Stills as he is not a red zone priority for this team and will likely be a volume possession guy similar to what we saw with Brandin Cooks. I expect another game with plenty of catches but a low yard per catch as he attacks from underneath.

Projected Stat Line – Eight catches, 90 yards

Follow-Up – Kenny Stills ($5900) – As shown above, I like Stills in this new role. Last week he exceeded expectations with eight catches for 98 yards for his second highest fantasy score of the season. When you shop in this price range, you are taking a shot and Stills was a nice value.

Tight End – Rob Gronkowski – $7,700 

With at least four catches and 68 yards in each of the last seven games, Gronk has created a nice floor. That’s not what I am paying for here as this game is expected to be a shootout (60 points combined) and Gronkowski is a great piece to own. He is facing a neutral matchup so that favors him immensely. Tom Brady and company will need to keep up here and this is the best weapon to do the job and if Brandon LaFell is limited, more for the big guy. I think he could vastly outperform this price.

Projected Stat Line – seven catches, 110 yards, two touchdowns

Follow-Up – Larry Donnell ($5,500) – This was simply a poor performance in an easy matchup. Donnell managed just two catches for 23 yards as Beckham dominated the passing game here. It has become harder to rely on the young tight end as he has been alternating good and bad performances for the last few months.

Kicker – Shayne Graham – $4,700

Graham is attached to a good offense playing a solid defense. That is usually a good recipe for some field goals and Pittsburgh is a plus matchup having allowed the fourth most fantasy points to kickers. That’s worth the price here.

Projected Stat Line – Two field goals, three extra points

Follow-Up – Billy Cundiff ($4,500) – Four field goal makes (with a fifth that was missed) along with two extra points was a great fantasy day. It was his best game on the year as Gordon’s return was instrumental in moving the ball down the field.

Defense – Miami – $4,900

Miami had a decent price and a great matchup against the New York Jets. They are fourth in the league in sacks while being opportunistic with their takeaways. In the Jets, they face a team third worst in sacks allowed, seventh in interceptions thrown and third worst in points per game. This should work out well.

Projected Stat Line – Ten points allowed, five sacks, two fumble recoveries, two interceptions

Follow-Up – Buffalo ($5,200) – With seven sacks, an interception, and a blocked kick for a touchdown; Buffalo had a field day with the aforementioned Jets. They lead the league in sacks by a country mile and are a great option to use when the price is right.

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