The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter Posted On November 26, 2014

landry

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

In my 14-team non-PPR league I’m out of the playoff run and I’m getting hammered with offers for DeMarco Murray. Should I move him or keep him going forward? The offers I’ve received are Gio Bernard and Jordan Mathews for Murray and Joseph Randle, and Andre Ellington and Jerick McKinnon for Murray and Randle. – Denny in Vancouver

Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray, while only 26 years old, has seemingly already turned into a future cautionary tale. By virtue of staying healthy and having the offense funneled through him, Murray has averaged a robust 27.8 touches per game, a rate that leaves him on pace to handle the ball a whopping 445 times this season. This also neglects to take into account the playoffs, which are beginning to seem increasingly likely based upon Dallas’ (gasp!) winning ways.

[inlinead]There is precedent for players suffering a physical letdown following seasons of heavy usage, and this is something I studied in early 2013. According to my research, the two biggest risk factors for succumbing to either injury or diminished effectiveness following a true bell-cow season are previous workload and years spent in the league. Fortunately for Murray, he checks both boxes on the positive side of the ledger, and as such I remain unconvinced he’ll suffer an immediate drop-off.

Of greater concern is where Murray will call home come 2015. Currently set to be a free agent, Dallas either needs to re-sign their top running back to a lucrative new contract or hit him with the franchise tag, either of which could pose an issue for the cap-strapped ‘Boys. This problem is only magnified considering Dallas will face the same problem with star receiver Dez Bryant, a player arguably more worthy of a long-term extension.

So given your place in the hierarchy of your league’s standing, I’d feel safe accepting the deal for Andre Ellington and Jerick McKinnon. The non-PPR format places a greater emphasis on ball carriers, and you’d be receiving two promising (and exciting) young pieces. While I don’t necessarily believe you’ll be selling high on Murray, he’s not doing you any good now and you could use the injection of youth and talent to build for a better future.

Eric Ebron was just dropped in our league. I currently have Zach Ertz and Ladarius Green, but can only roster two tight ends. Should I drop one to pick up Ebron? – Matt in OH

Both the Chargers’ Ladarius Green and the Eagles’ Zach Ertz were hyped incessantly prior to the season. While Ertz showed some initial promise (163 yards and a touchdown over his first two games), he’s slowed down substantially with a weekly line of 3-33 with a single touchdown, on an average of 4.9 targets. Green has been even worse, surpassing 60 yards only twice, while being held to two receptions or fewer in eight games – he has yet to score on the season.

Ertz’ fail to ascend isn’t altogether unsurprising, as it’s only his second year in the league. Moreover, the Philadelphia offense boasts three pass catchers with over 69 targets (all ahead of Ertz in the pecking order), highlighting a propensity to spread the ball around. With another off-season (and the potential loss of receiver Jeremy Maclin), I expect Chip Kelly’s 2013 second round pick to carve out a larger join the ranks of the PPR TE1’s.

Green’s ascent is significantly murkier, as 30 games into his career his physical gifts simply haven’t translated to the field as he’s languished behind future Hall of Famer Antonio Gates. It’s also not as if San Diego is immune to awarding playing time to youngsters, as sophomore Keenan Allen is a veritable lock to exceed 100 targets two years in a row. Mike McCoy led his team to the playoffs last year, and the Chargers currently sit at 7-4 following a week 12 victory – given this success, it’s clear San Diego isn’t missing Green on the field, and it’s fair to wonder what’s keeping him off it?

So even though it might seem like you’re giving up early, I think there’s enough evidence to suggest dropping Green in favor of Detroit rookie Eric Ebron. Despite missing three games he’s actually slightly ahead of Green within the positional hierarchy (PPR TE41 versus TE43, but still), and our November mock drafts have him a few rounds ahead as well. As you can only roster two tight ends, it makes sense to go with the player who has already proven more upside and has the better draft pedigree – in this case, that’s Ebron.

Towards the end of every year there seems to be some buzz about a free agent running back. Last year, Toby Gerhart caused writers to spill a lot of ink. “Big back finally getting a chance. Great fit in Jacksonville,” etc. It seems as though veteran running backs rarely pan out though. True you get the Marshawn Lynch’s of the league, but is pursuing free agent running backs going to new teams worth it? – Ash in TX

I agree with this for the most part, especially with regards to how far people went anointing former Vikings backup Toby Gerhart as the next big thing. Unfortunately, the potential 2015 returns don’t look significantly more promising. With that said, I believe there to be one exception – Redskins running back Roy Helu, Jr.

I’ve previously written about Helu for our annual Summer Sleeper series, and thus far he’s essentially achieved the expectations I laid out for him. I had predicted 120-140 total touches for the young ball carrier, a rate he’s just under at the moment (on pace for 112 touches). With that said, he’s chipped in 34 receptions at 11.0 YPC, which has provided him with a higher floor in PPR leagues, where he currently resides as the PPR RB31.

Considering he’s shown an ability to shoulder more of the load in the past, I think he could make for a smart signing by a team looking for a Gio Bernard-lite type. If he can couple his pass-catching ability with increased volume in the run game, we could very well be looking at a PPR RB2 with upside. For the current price of a firm handshake, I’ll take that bet.

In a 10-man non-PPR league I just dealt Denard Robinson and Carlos Hyde for Jamaal Charles, Knile Davis and James Starks ( I have Eddie Lacy). I like the deal for the next few seasons as I view Charles as most consistent player in league and I like Davis later – what do you think of deal? – Keith in TN

I like the deal a lot, for five main reasons – 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0 and 1.0. When these five “reasons” are added together, we have an aggregate of 5.0, which just so happens to be a yards-per-carry value Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles has bested in every year of his career so far. Currently sitting at 5.1 YPC, it looks like Charles is set to best this benchmark once again.

Continuing, Charles only has 1,443 touches on his resume, and has yet to break down in the face of his third consecutive heavy-volume season. He’s signed cheaply through 2017, and given his prodigious skill it’s not unreasonable to expect him to fulfill this contract while continuing as a fantasy dynamo. Even if he slows down, you also received backup Knile Davis in the trade – while I’m not nearly as high on Davis as I am Charles, he’s at the very least proven an ability to handle a large workload.

The players you gave up, Jacksonville’s Denard Robinson and San Francisco’s Carlos Hyde, could very well become a pair of dynasty stalwarts, but as of yet there simply isn’t enough of a sample size to trust in that certainty. While it’s unreasonable to roster a team full of veterans, more often than not I’ll trust proven talent at the expense of hyped youngsters. As that’s essentially all you gave up in your deal, I’d say you’ve done well.

I am a CJ Anderson owner but I also have Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman on my bench. With Anderson’s recent performances it seems clear that he should remain an RB1 the rest of this season if he stays healthy. The big question is who will be the guy, and the handcuff for Denver next year? Is it worth keeping Hillman on my bench for next year or should I drop him for a receiver like Allen Robinson or Jarvis Landry? I have good depth at running back, however I have question marks at receiver aside from AJ Green. – Kevin in MN

To be honest, I’m not sure what’s going to happen with the Denver backfield next season. Both CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman have looked extremely good when called upon this year, and while Montee Ball started off slow he remains a former second round pick by the current regime. Not only is it unclear who will assume backup duties in 2015, I’d say there’s still significant question as to who will be the starter.

Honestly though, it doesn’t matter. There’s absolutely no way either Allen Robinson or Jarvis Landry should be available. Not only would I not hesitate to drop Hillman for either, I’d consider dropping Ball as well (or another player on your roster) so you could nab both.

This is the time I consider future “stashes” for next year. I’m just wondering if you have any players you will be targeting for possibly a next year “breakout?” – Brian in Victoria

In this week’s Tuesday Transactions column, I addressed just this. Be sure to check it out!

What is Jordan Cameron’s dynasty value in trades? Is he worth a second round round pick? Is he worth a young receiver like Jarvis Landry? Would you be looking to sell or buy? – Jonathan in NC

Browns tight end Jordan Cameron is essentially in a version of dynasty purgatory right now. Simply put, it’s tough to directly nail down his value due to a combination of lackluster statistics, and more importantly his health. A byproduct of this, however, could lead to a reduced cost as owners are more than likely growing impatient with his lack of 2014 viability.

This makes it a great time to be a buyer, not a seller, if you have interest. Given the nature of his injuries though (concussions), a prudent approach should be utilized – frankly, I’d scoff at paying either a second round pick or Landry to acquire Cameron’s services. Try digging a little deeper, perhaps for a third round pick or a receiver like Paul Richardson – this allows for a much larger safety net if Cameron fails to rediscover his previous form.

Tavon Austin was dropped in my league. Is he worth rostering in a 12-man PPR league? – Ronnie in Denmark

It’s more than likely I remain Tavon Austin’s biggest apologist amongst my DLF brethren, and it’s extremely possible I could be one of a handful or so who still believe he has a chance at fantasy glory. Put succinctly, the Rams made him an early first round draft pick in 2013, and while coaches and GM’s are prone to error, it’s undeniable they know more than the fantasy layman. It’s been shown that Austin is clearly a mismatch for St. Louis OC Brian Schottenheimer’s system, but given the Rams’ offensive output the past few seasons I’m not sure that’s truly an indictment of the young pass catcher. He probably won’t ever live up to his draft status, but if Austin can move to a system that will get him into space as a poor man’s Brandin Cooks, he still has a modicum of value – there’s really no reason not to scoop him up and hope for the best.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

Author
Recent Posts

Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.