Tuesday Transactions: Week Twelve

Eric Hardter

marshall

With the start of the canonical fantasy playoffs following this next week’s slate of games, trades and pickups close down in the majority of leagues in the coming days (if they haven’t already). As such, this will be the last Tuesday Transactions until the 2015 regular season begins. In the last eleven weeks my advice has split the ledger between good and bad, but if nothing else I hope it was an impetus for some ideas that kept you ahead of the curve.

Given the totality of the above, this week’s installment will be slightly different, focusing on moves both contending and rebuilding teams can make to either aid in the playoff push or build for the future. For a primer on this concept, be sure to catch last week’s Podcast where Karl Safchick and I were joined by Pro Football Focus director Mike Clay to talk these exact types of moves. Consider this an extension of our thoughts from last Wednesday.

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One last time, in the interest of transparency here were my week eleven suggestions:

Buy Low: Pierre Garcon, Eric Ebron and Marquess Wilson

Sell High: Chris Borland, CJ Anderson and Coby Fleener

Buy High: Roy Helu, Ryan Mathews and Jordan Matthews

Sell Low: Giovani Bernard, Travaris Cadet and Ahmad Bradshaw

Garcon (3-34-0) sank with the rest of the Washington ship, Ebron (2-23-0) was wildly ineffective with his seven targets and Wilson (1-10-0) suffered as the Bears took the air out of the ball late in the game. Borland (8 tackles, 2.0 TFL) led the team in stops, Anderson (27-167-1, 4-28-0) was the week’s top running back and Fleener (2-28-0) came back down to earth. Helu (0-0-0, 2-9-0) was sparsely used, Mathews (12-105-1, 2-8-0) roasted the Rams and Matthews (6-77-0) led the Eagles in receiving. Bernard (17-45-0, 2-22-0) was thoroughly outplayed by Jeremy Hill, Bradshaw was put on IR and Cadet hasn’t yet played at the time of this writing.

Onto some last minute moves!

Players to Target for Contenders

  1. Brandon Marshall, WR CHI – Though Marshall took a step back on Sunday (3-32-0), this was largely due to both game plan (only 27 passes) and Jay Cutler’s underwhelming play (130 passing yards). However, this broke a solid two-game streak where he aggregated 15 receptions for 202 yards and three touchdowns. Also prior to the victory over the Bucs, Marshall hadn’t had fewer than nine targets in a game since early October. After a clash with the Lions in week 13, the Bears play Dallas and New Orleans, following by Detroit again. He could likely be had for a late first or early second round pick.
  2. Andre Johnson, WR HOU – Similar to Marshall above, Johnson has been a target hog for the Texans. No matter the quarterback, the veteran receiver hasn’t had fewer than seven targets in any single game, while achieving at least nine targets in seven games. The efficiency hasn’t been there, but the stretch run is tantalizing with contests against Tennessee, Jacksonville, Indy and Baltimore. He could likely be had for an early third round pick, and should solidify your WR3 or FLEX position.
  3. Vincent Jackson, WR TB – Even with the meteoric rise of Mike Evans, V-Jax has remained a huge part of the offense with at least seven targets in all but two games, as well as at least nine targets in three of the last four. In fact, it was Jackson who led Tampa in receiving this past week, with a robust 5-117-0 line. The Bucs have tough matchups against the Bengals and Lions over the next two weeks, but close with the Panthers and Packers. He could likely be had for a late second round pick, and should put up WR2 numbers.
  4. Justin Forsett, RB BAL – With at least 90 total yards in six of the past seven games, as well as an average of 17.3 touches per game over that stretch, Forsett is entrenched as the Ravens’ bell-cow back. He’s managed to couple this with otherworldly efficiency (5.4 YPC), and enough scoring (five touchdowns) and receptions (3.1 per game) to keep him amongst the PPR RB1 ranks. The Ravens close out with games against the Chargers, Dolphins, Jags and Texans, so game flow shouldn’t be an issue. Given his age, he could likely be had for an early third round pick.
  5. Jason Witten, TE DAL – Witten has turned it on as of late, averaging a 5-48.8-0.75 line over the past four weeks. This is akin to mid-range PPR TE1 value, something he should continue to achieve given his pass-catching efficiency (71.4% conversion since late October). Yet another “boring” option, Witten offers a high floor for contenders weak at the position, and could probably be had for an early third round selection.

Players for Rebuilders to Target

  1. Tyler Eifert, TE CIN – It’s been a lost season for the ascending sophomore, who hasn’t played since leaving early in week one. While this is the definition of a small sample size, Eifert corralled three receptions for 37 yards in less than half a game, and it was clear he was the preferred option over the plodding Jermaine Gresham. It’s doubtful Gresham will be back next year, and Eifert should check in as a dark horse for mid-level TE1 value.
  2. Any Rookie WR Who Hasn’t Produced – This includes players such as Marqise Lee, Cody Latimer and to a lesser extent, Donte Moncrief. We’ve been spoiled by the success of the freshman pass-catching class, and as such the players who haven’t gotten in on the action have been devalued. Since many of these names were fringe first-rounders to begin with, they could be had for substantially less now.
  3. Allen Robinson, WR JAX and Brandin Cooks, WR NO – Given how well this duo of rookies had been producing when healthy, it’s fair to reason they could have been starters on playoff teams. Should these hypothetical contending teams now have holes in their lineups, it’s now a great opportunity to sell off veteran players for these injured rookies. Each has legitimate low-end WR1 potential.
  4. CJ Spiller, RB BUF – No, he’s not a name one would think of when considering the term “rebuilding,” due to the fact he’ll be 28 before the next season begins. With that said, he’s only had 812 career touches, and more importantly there’s a strong likelihood he’ll be out of Buffalo come 2015. Given his mystifying usage during the Doug Marrone tenure, this can only be viewed as a potential upgrade.
  5. Any Rookie Tight End – Every year we as fantasy owners seem to re-learn the same lesson – rookie tight ends simply don’t contribute. Eric Ebron was a legit first round pick in most drafts, while positional cohorts Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Jace Amaro were likely late second round selections, but not shockingly they simply haven’t yet returned upon these respective investments. Nevertheless, each possesses upside greater than what they’ve shown this season, and could provide starter-level viability in the future on a fractional cost.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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eric hardter