Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Twelve

Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. We’ll pick one player from each team who we have our eye on and describe why their weekend performance is a key one for them in relation to their dynasty value.

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First, thanks to Nathan Powell for keeping the Sunday Morning Huddle train rolling. Now, let’s get into this week’s slate of games.

Early Games

Tampa Bay at Chicago

While this may be the Josh McCown (and Lovie Smith) revenge game, someone else has been taking center stage this past month. The rookie hype that was behind Sammy Watkins and Kelvin Benjamin is now prominently occupied by Mike Evans. Over the past four weeks, Evans has caught 12 deep balls; next closest has just six. With a Bears defensive secondary that has just one interception outside of Kyle Fuller, there is little risk to throwing a few deep passes.

Marquess Wilson came back last week and did not have training wheels on. Playing 58 of a possible 78 snaps, the Bears are not easing him back into action. Four targets (two catches) shows Jay Cutler has trust with the young receiver. Wilson may be relied on even more this week, especially if Alterraun Verner makes it back into the Tampa Bay lineup.

Detroit at New England

Another week 11 returnee, Eric Ebron came back and converted all four targets he saw against Arizona. While that may not seem like much, Ebron has had exactly four catches in each of his last four games, creating a level of consistency and symmetry. New England is among the best against receivers, but is allowing the most receiving yards to tight ends in the NFL. Hopefully the Detroit coaching staff is recognizing that.

Why make the choice at running back easy? After losing Stevan Ridley, it seemed like Shane Vereen and Jonas Gray were the easy options. Now, LaGarrette Blount reenters the mix. His familiarity with the offense should lessen the learning curve so observe how the team uses him. The time to trade Gray may have passed but the chance to get value out of playing New England running backs in your lineup still exists.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis

A polarizing rookie before the season, Blake Bortles has shown a few things this season. While his numbers when under pressure are abysmal (0:5 touchdown to interception ratio), Bortles uses his quick feet to avoid pressure as well (32% of snaps vs. 46% for Chad Henne). That will be needed as Indianapolis’ pressure-based defense has led to being just one of five teams holding quarterbacks under a 60% completion rate.

Which receiver, when thrown to, has resulted in the highest quarterback rating for Andrew Luck? The answer is not T.Y. Hilton but instead Donte Moncrief (117.7). You wouldn’t guess that considering Moncrief’s playing time dropped from a season high 41 snaps in week eight to a paltry ten this past week. Meanwhile, Hakeem Nicks was shockingly given 39 snaps despite being the most detrimental receiver (58.9 rating) to the passing game. Did I mention Moncrief is the best run blocking receiver (according to Pro Football Focus) on the team?

Cleveland at Atlanta

The fantasy community has been waiting like a dog at the front door for Josh Gordon to come home so there is no other choice here. Conflicting reports of a “pitch count” have clouded projections in this game but this is an interesting matchup. While Atlanta’s overall pass defense remains a slight inconvenience for opposing quarterbacks, Desmond Trufant likely draws the Gordon matchup and is currently rated fourth by PFF in coverage. This will be a good test to see if Gordon requires a few games to shake off the rust or if the rumors of his peak physical condition are true.

Once a fruitful running back situation, Atlanta may be among the worst for owners. A veteran who is completely shot beyond pass blocking (Steven Jackson), a rookie who has only surpassed 20 snaps played once this season (Devonta Freeman), and the most explosive back now on the IR (Antone Smith) populate this wasteland. At some point, Freeman has to be given a chance given his 4.2 yards per carry and it may have started last week (his six carries was second highest this season). Let’s see if that continues.

Cincinnati at Houston

While Giovani Bernard was nursing an injury, Jeremy Hill decided to stake a claim to the backfield. Bernard returns this week and early reports suggest a 2:1 ratio in favor of the rookie Hill. What this evolves into is anyone’s guess but both running backs could prove to be nothing more than flex options down the stretch. Monitor this situation carefully.

Small sample size alert! In Ryan Mallett’s first game as a starter, he showed little favoritism amongst his top two receivers, targeting Andre Johnson (ten) and DeAndre Hopkins (eight) almost evenly. With Arian Foster still uncertain for Sunday, Mallett may again be forced to go to the air extensively, even against a stout Bengals pass defense. Does the good times continue and everyone get fed or do we start to see Mallett play favorites?

Green Bay at Minnesota

Remember when James Starks was a thing? It wasn’t too long ago when the veteran back was seeing a nearly 50/50 split with Eddie Lacy. How times have changed. In the last three weeks, that split has shifted to about 80/20 in favor of Lacy with no signs of letting up. In that time, Lacy has run for an average of 4.8 yards per carry. Starks is clocking in at a robust 1.6 and is being hit behind the line (evident by his 1.8 yards after contact) consistently.

For all you Chicken Little owners, the sky is not falling on Jerick McKinnon. Yes, the Vikings did claim Ben Tate, but the player at risk here is Matt Asiata. Tate will have limited snaps given his playbook deficiencies but he has shown to be more short yardage back (Asiata’s piece of the pie) than a between the 20s option. I expect McKinnon to retain his 50% share of the backfield while Tate assumes Asiata’s role this week (Asiata is ruled out) and prepares for a dogfight for the rest of the season.

Tennessee at Philadelphia

The biggest beneficiary of the switch to Zach Mettenberger may be Kendall Wright. His pre-Mett numbers were that of a possession receiver (9.3 yards per catch) while Wright has now become a viable option deeper down the field with Mettenberger (16.0 yards per catch). The catch rate has predictably decreased (from 68% to 61%) but he is averaging more yards (from 50 to 60 yards per game) and has remained the primary option in the passing game.

Speaking of new quarterback-wide receiver love fests, enter Jordan Matthews. Already the darling of many dynasty owners, the change to Mark Sanchez has led to a near even split of targets between Matthews (17) and Jeremy Maclin (18) over the past two games. What is interesting though is the change in roles as Maclin has become a possession receiver (17.6 to 10.9 yards per catch) for Sanchez while Matthews is now the deep threat (9.9 to 20.4). Whether this is just small samples or the start of something new bears watching.

Afternoon Games

St. Louis at San Diego

Switching to the defensive side of the ball, I have liked what T.J. McDonald has been doing over the last month. With at least four solo tackles in each of the last four weeks along with his first interception and sack of the season, McDonald is becoming more confident in the secondary. The pressure from the Mark Barron trade has yet to impact his game negatively or take away from his snaps, something that was expected when the trade occurred a few weeks ago.

Keenan Allen’s season has been a disappointment for his dynasty owners. Coming into the season as a consensus top 20 receiver, Allen has morphed into a possession receiver (just 9.8 yards per catch vs. 14.7 last year) who has seen opposing cornerbacks pick off more passes thrown his way (four) than he has touchdowns (one). Allen has regressed in every sense of the word but the talent is there to rebound and a plus matchup against Saint Louis could help turn the tide. Even if it is a slight discount, there is still buy low opportunity here.

Miami at Denver

Last week was the second time this season Jarvis Landry (49) had more snaps than Brian Hartline. The tides are shifting in Miami as Landry has proven to be sure-handed (79% catch rate, second in the NFL behind Brandin Cooks) and capable of extra yardage (top 20 in yards after catch and missed tackles). The lack of speed may limit his long play ability (21 yard catch long) but he is a consistent threat in an offense trending upward.

I made my gamble with the Denver backfield a few weeks ago and lost so I will turn to the myriad of injuries in the receiving core. With Emmanuel Sanders last listed as probable and Julius Thomas as questionable, someone will need to step up in this offense. Is this finally the week that Cody Latimer gets some playing time? Probably not, to be honest, as Andre Caldwell and Jacob Tamme will be the guys that see increases in workload this week as Latimer will be lucky to even get on the field.

Arizona at Seattle

Despite being 11th in the league in rushing yardage, Andre Ellington has failed to crack the 100 yard barrier once this season (he does own a 100 yard receiving game). Ellington is averaging 2.9 yards per carry in his last four games with a long of just 21 yards, both disappointing considering his strong rookie season. While some of the blame can be place on his injured foot, this is a 25 year old running back with an injury history dating to college. His receiving abilities are helping his value and I am currently shopping him in leagues where I own him.

I will bring it up again – Paul Richardson is the rookie receiver to buy low on now. Averaging four targets and nearly 50 snaps per game since the Percy Harvin trade (compared to zero targets and ten snaps beforehand), Richardson is the clear number three. Add in Jermaine Kearse and Ricardo Lockette entering restricted free agency this off-season and Richardson’s time to shine may be in 2015.

Washington at San Francisco

In seven games without Robert Griffin III this season, Roy Helu and Alfred Morris have totaled 26 receptions. In three games with the young quarterback, they have 16 catches in total showing a reliance on the backfield to generate offense through the air. Also, Morris sees a drop in rushing from 5.3 yards per carry with Griffin to just 3.6 without (Helu goes from 7.4 to 4.5 albeit in a small sample). Griffin may be struggling to get his receivers going, but the backfield is thriving with him at the helm.

How bad are things for Vernon Davis this season? He has failed to go over 44 yards this year (which occurred in week one) after besting the mark nine times in 16 games last year. Davis has TOTALED 15 yards in his last two games and his run blocking, which was top five a year ago, has deteriorated to the point where Vance McDonald (rated second in run blocking by PFF) has seen a snap increase each of the last four weeks. The time to sell Davis is closing rapidly but maybe there is that one owner who still values the name.

Sunday Night Game

Dallas at New York Giants

Lost in the magic of DeMarco Murray’s brilliant year is that of Tony Romo. Sitting at fourth in the NFL in yards per attempt (8.3) while tied for second in quarterback rating (107.2), Romo is on his way to a career year. Now, Romo gets to face a Giants defense that is soft against the run and will likely overcompensate to give him the passing lanes needed for another solid effort.

An early season revelation, Larry Donnell quieted down and is now heating back up after the Victor Cruz injury. Since the unfortunate knee injury, Donnell has had at least five targets in each game with two touchdowns, the latter of which is tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns with Odell Beckham. Now, Donnell is going up against a Dallas defense that is among the toughest in the league against wide receivers (only five touchdowns allowed) but one of the most generous to tight ends (eight touchdowns and most receptions allowed).

Monday Games

New York Jets “at” Buffalo

Moving past all the drama behind the venue, we reach a Jets’ offense that finally has a pair of wide receivers it can rely on with neither named Jeremy Kerley. Since the Percy Harvin trade, he and Eric Decker have had an equal partnership (26 targets each) and have helped the team thrive in the Michael Vick era. We may now see two viable New York offenses for dynasty owners to choose from.

The continued emergence of the Buffalo defense is spearheaded by the duo of Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes. A favorite DFS defense of mine, Buffalo leads the NFL in sacks with Williams and Hughes accounting for 20 of the 39 this season. Hughes in particular is proving his breakout of a year ago had nothing to do with the scheme as the team converted to a 4-3 base defense for 2014. He is improving even more against the run and always appears to be in position to make plays.

Baltimore at New Orleans

Over the last month, Torrey Smith has taken over the top receiver role in the Baltimore offense. Torrey may be targeted less (21) compared to long lost older brother Steve Smith (27) in the last four games; he has gained more yards (219 to 155), scored more touchdowns (three to zero), and is catching at a higher rate (57% to 51%). While his 2014 line will end up a disappointing one, Torrey can be a flex play down the stretch and still contribute.

For those doubting Kenny Stills can be a viable option with Brandin Cooks out, he has been targeted equally (22 to 23 for Cooks) and caught a similar number of balls (16 to 19) in the four weeks prior to the injury. That should only rise as Stills has improved his intermediate routes while maintaining the explosiveness to make plays down the field. Against a suspect Baltimore defense that lost their top cornerback a few weeks ago, his value should only rise.

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