The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
- In a 12-team PPR league, who would you rather have in 2015, Jeremy Maclin for $15 ($225 budget for draft) or Andre Ellington for $38? Do you think Maclin stays the WR1 in Philly next year? We start 2-3 running backs and 3-4 receivers. – Noah in NY
On a recent DLF Podcast, Jarrett and Karl got to talking about ranking the league’s running backs in a dynasty setting. While there remain a few obvious names at the top (Le’Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles and DeMarco Murray as examples), it got significantly hazier trying to round out the top ten, highlighting the instability at the position. One other name they both agreed upon, however, was Cardinals ball carrier Andre Ellington.
[inlinead]As many of the DLF faithful know, I’m a big fan of Arizona’s sophomore running back. No, his efficiency hasn’t matched his insane 2013 output, but he’s shown an ability to shoulder the load (22.7 touches per game), while also maintaining a high floor due to his receiving ability (4.1 receptions per game). Much of this has been done as the Cardinals have been without starting quarterback Carson Palmer and all of it has been done while Ellington has been nursing a preseason foot injury – given what we already know about his ceiling, I have no doubt he’ll return to his previously effectual ways.
On the other side of the coin is Philly receiver Jeremy Maclin, who has been a revelation as the overall PPR WR5. Part of this is due to the seamless nature of coach Chip Kelly’s offense, but as always credit still need to go to the guy making the plays. Thus far, Maclin has been making a lot of them.
Ultimately though, I’d side with my guy Ellington. He’s a little more expensive, but he also stands as an anchor in the turbulent see that is the dynasty running back landscape. There are more moving parts with Maclin, as he may not be back with the Eagles next year, thereby mitigating his value – coupling that with the depth of the position (a legitimate 10-12 rookie pass catchers have shown PPR WR2 upside), I’d be more comfortable letting Maclin walk.
- In a 12-team league, what is Big Ben’s value in trade at the present? I’d like to sell high. My team starts Andrew Luck and rosters Blake Bortles, but I’m also a contender and want to be prepared for anything. Another owner has offered Johnny Manziel and Keenan Allen for Roethlisberger. Needless to say, I am intrigued. Thoughts? – Chris in NY
Coming off an epic stretch where he accumulated 12 touchdowns in a two-week span, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has cooled off as of late. After a humbling loss to the Jets in week 10, Big Ben again had a mediocre outing against the Titans Monday night. As always, when it comes to a set of extremes, the truth often lies somewhere in the middle.
No, Roethlisberger isn’t nearly as good, or consistent, as that duo of prolific games made him appear. To that point, our own Jacob Feldman provided a snapshot of his prior work, correctly illuminating the likelihood Big Ben would slow down. What we’re likely to see, especially given Pittsburgh’s late-season stretch featuring a trio of mediocre pass defenses (New Orleans, Cincy and Atlanta), is low-to-mid level QB1 numbers – hardly the legendary work of earlier this season.
So if you can make a deal where you’d receive Chargers receiver Keenan Allen, there’s really no deliberating left to do. Despite a lack of touchdowns, Allen nevertheless stands as the PPR WR35, and has picked it up as of late (27 receptions for 241 yards and a touchdown over the past four weeks, with 45 total targets) after a sluggish start. At only 22 years old it would be insane to write Allen off as a “one hit wonder” following a phenomenal rookie deal, and it would be wise of you to snap him up now, especially considering the cost.
- Now that Jonas Gray has arrived, what are his long-term prospects in New England? I think Stevan Ridley is gone and won’t be re signed, and the Patriots appear to be fine with Gray and Shane Vereen. – Glen in NJ
Attempting to extrapolate a Bill Belichick tendency based on a small sample size has burned many a fantasy owner in the past. We saw it with Shane Vereen following his breakout in the 2013 playoffs, we saw it with James White this preseason, and we’ve seen it countless more times. To be honest, given the fickle nature of his disposition, it wouldn’t shock me at all if perpetually inactive receiver Aaron Dobson wound up being an All-American come 2015 (not really…but you get the point).
So asserting that power back Jonas Gray has “arrived” is the definition of putting the cart before the horse. I take nothing away from his four-touchdown effort Sunday night, but the Patriots had a game plan to smack the Colts in the mouth with the power run game, and Gray was the next guy up. As was summarized by our own Luke Wetta, the run defenses of the Pats’ upcoming opponents strengthens immensely, and it would truly be no surprise to see Vereen take the lead in the coming weeks.
Now it’s true positional cohort Stevan Ridley will likely be out of the picture come 2015, but I’m not sure that necessarily solves anything. To that point, I’d previously stated (only partially tongue in cheek) Ridley is the only Patriots ball carrier I’d seek to buy right now, as he’ll more than likely be elsewhere next year, on an offense that doesn’t lack weekly clarity. White still remains as another handpicked Belichick “gem,” and we have no idea how The Hoodie will choose to attack free agency or the draft – what seems transparent now could become clear as mud in a matter of a few short months.
Given that, I’d look to cash out immediately. I’ve seen trades involving Gray on Twitter over the course of the past couple days, involving returns such as a second round pick in 2015, as well as Broncos receiver Cody Latimer in a one-for-one swap. While Belichick could play us all for fools yet again (seriously, is his entire life just one long con?), I’d trust his perennial process here, which is to say there is no process – I wouldn’t hesitate to sell as soon as possible.
- Adrian Peterson – what now? – John in MA
What now, indeed.
Earlier in the week, we receive manna from the heavens (also known as an Adam Schefter tweet) suggesting Peterson would be reinstated in time for a week 12 clash with the division rival Packers. This came on the heels of the recent reports claiming the Vikings would welcome AP back with open arms and that he would step seamlessly back into his starting tailback position.
We all know the rest by now. NFL Commish Roger Goodell continued to make up the rules as he goes along, and the projectile he threw at his “suspension dartboard” landed on “gone for the year!” Peterson plans to appeal the ban, but as of this writing there remains nothing concrete about his future, both immediate and long-term.
So truthfully, nothing has really changed in the dynasty landscape. Owners hoping to sell have taken a hit (although the trade deadline has already passed in many leagues), as the uncertainty of the situation could lead to a diminished price. Potential or prior buyers looking for anything in the 2014 stat-line should also be understandably frustrated, as barring a reversal of fortune expectations should be next to nothing.
But with regards to 2015 and beyond, I’m not convinced anything has changed. There was always a good chance that, due to his immense salary and the rise of rookie Jerick McKinnon, Peterson was going to be jettisoned from Minnesota anyhow. However, my guess is All Day will find a suitor somewhere, as he was still playing at a high level before his legal issues – the exact location remains a mystery, and as such all we can really do is watch it unfold.
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