The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1. I am looking to do a deal for Matt Stafford in my 10-man non-PPR league, and I will possibly have a pick in the range of 1.06 to 1.10 depending how I do in the playoffs. Do you think Stafford is worth that? – David in SC
As always, context moves to the forefront as I craft my response. The shallow nature of your league tells me quarterbacks should be inherently devalued relative to the other skill players, while the non-PPR format shifts the positional focus to the running backs. As such, I’d choose to banish this trade thought from your mind immediately.
Detroit’s Matt Stafford is a fine young signal caller, but has shown more than his fair share of warts over the course of his short career. Thus far in 2014 he checks in as the QB15 in terms of quarterback points per game (minimum of five starts), which isn’t even start-worthy in a ten-man league. He stands to get better all-world receiver Calvin Johnson back, and remains young, but there’s not nearly enough relative upside here to warrant any first round pick.
Getting back to the latter portion of your format, I’ve described above about the importance of ball carriers in a non-PPR setting. To that end, the upcoming 2015 draft class appears to be rich in running backs, a likelihood illustrated by a recent rookie mock put forward by our own Scott Fish. In this exercise four ball carriers were selected in the first round, and nine total between the first 24 picks – considering this draft utilized PPR scoring, I expect those numbers to be even higher when the point-per-reception is removed.
So if you really want to make a move here, I’d aim higher than Stafford. There’s too much talent at the most important position in next year’s draft to consider ridding yourself of the pick for such a minimal return. I’d much rather hang onto the pick, as its value easily trumps that of most quarterbacks in a small league setting.
2. I am currently 6-3 and in sixth place, which would be great if it wasn’t the phoniest 6-3 record ever, as two teams with 3-6 records have more overall fantasy points than mine. I can’t even blame injuries, as my team just isn’t that good right now. With the trade deadline looming, how should I approach things? Should I take advantage of the fact I’m pretty well guaranteed a playoff spot and go for it by trading picks, rookies like Martavis Bryant and Mike Evans for immediate help or stand pat, keep my picks and continue building my team long term? – Colin in Lloydminster
The ability to be legitimately introspective about one’s dynasty roster is arguably the most important trait an owner can possess. Continuing, this is the point in the season where that ability simply isn’t optional, but mandatory. After all, there’s nothing worse than being in the “mushy middle” of your league – if you’re not clearly residing on the “contender” or “rebuilder” side of the fence, it’s more than likely time to make some changes.
To that last point, I’m a firm believer in the phrase “it’s better to rebuild a year too early than a year too late.” In other words, if you don’t believe you’re equipped to make a genuine run to the championship, what’s the point of attempting to walk down that road? It’s my opinion that acquiring draft picks and younger, unproven options should be the next move in these types of situations – again, there’s nothing worse than losing in the first round of the playoffs, collecting your participation trophy and failing to obtain a top draft selection.
On the other hand, I also believe that when it comes to the playoffs, the season essentially starts over. This isn’t to say that your team magically becomes better or your opponents worse, but triumphing in a short series of one-and-dones is a lot different, theoretically easier and luck-based than playing out a season’s worth of games. In short, making it to the show offers a myriad of possibilities, including an elusive championship.
Ultimately though I think you need to play the odds. If you don’t believe one or two additional pieces will make you as good as your opponents, I’d stand pat. The values of players like Martavis Bryant and Mike Evans is only going to increase during the off-season, as will their roles in their respective offenses – in your case, I’d be significantly more content seeing that play out.
3. In my 16-team PPR league I’m rebuilding and look to have the 1.01 and another pick between 1.07 and 1.09. I have built my team around receivers Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Kelvin Benjamin, John Brown, Jarvis Landry, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Justin Hunter, but we can only start a max of three. My running backs are Lorenzo Taliaferro, Brandin Oliver and CJ Spiller. A guy in my league wants Brown and has LeSean McCoy. Will McCoy be valuable given my team, and how much should I be willing to offer for him? Also, which of those receivers should I look to trade if any? – Jonathan in NC
[inlinead]Put succinctly, there’s room on every roster for Eagles running back LeSean McCoy. No, he hasn’t delivered the results we expected following a 2013 season where he led the league in rushing and finished as the overall PPR RB3, but I don’t believe his talent has simply vanished. To that point, before Monday night’s game against the Panthers, McCoy had compiled 349 rushing yards on 67 carries (5.2 YPC) in the three games prior, once again showing the same skills he did last season. Considering he’s still only 26 years old, there’s a strong likelihood he’ll continue to put them to good use over the next few years.
Coupling this with your current stable of running backs and I absolutely think it behooves you to trade for Shady. Losing a player like Cardinals rookie receiver John Brown as part of the deal hurts, but you have the receiving depth to make up for it, and you can only start three pass catchers anyhow. This doesn’t appear to be any sort of obstacle towards obtaining McCoy.
As for what else you should use to sweeten the deal, I’d suggest Vikings wideout Cordarrelle Patterson. While his physical upside remains massive, he’s proven to be arguably even more raw than previously assumed, seeing teammates Greg Jennings and Jarius Wright surpass his statistical output. However, even though his numbers don’t match his name, he’s still going as 15th overall player according to our most recent ADP – if you can leverage both he and Brown to obtain McCoy, you’ll be doing a great service to your squad.
4. I am a Carolina Panthers fan and have the opportunity to get Cam Newton for Matt Stafford. I’m not one to let my feelings as a fan effect my fantasy decisions, but on this one I’m genuinely torn as to who has the better long-term value. Newton worries me because of the offensive line, lack of weapons and potential durability issues. Stafford worries me because he still finds ways to turn in bad or mediocre games with a lot of talent around him. He seems lost when Calvin Johnson is out, and he’s reckless when Johnson is playing. Who would you rather have? – Thomas in NY
As I alluded to in the first question, Matt Stafford is not without his warts. As Thomas mentioned above, much of this has boiled down to his performance when receiver Calvin Johnson is sidelined. While the arrival of Golden Tate has helped mitigate this, Stafford still averaged 24 more yards per game and 0.34 more YPA with Megatron on the field – these aren’t earth-shattering differences, but notable given Stafford’s previous predilection for going into the tank when Johnson was unavailable.
As we’ve seen this year, however, Panthers signal caller Cam Newton has struggled to build upon his previous statistics, and it seems a virtual certainty his streak of functioning as a top-five fantasy quarterback is set to come to an end. This is largely due to a marked decrease in running, as his 29.2 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns per game represent a 45% and 200% decreases respectively from his previous career totals. Much of this can be traced back to Newton’s health, along with the drop-off in OL play, but it goes to show why it can be risky to invest heavily in quarterbacks who derive a large chunk of scoring ability from their legs.
Even more problematic has been Newton’s propensity for 2014 turnovers. On the season his ratio of total scores to giveaways stands at a poor 4:5, numbers that would make even the Thursday night version of Andy Dalton cringe. This is more than likely aided, at least somewhat, by increased volume and constantly playing from behind, but these are nevertheless errors that require correction.
Ultimately though, we’ve seen enough of Newton to believe he’ll be able to do so. That 2014 rendition of the Carolina Panthers is one of the worst in recent memory, and truth be told their offense has never been flush with viable weapons. Given Newton’s proven ability to do more with less, it’s easy to believe he’ll find a way to turn it around – coupling that with the consistent ceiling he’s already shown thus far in his young career, he’d be my choice between the two.
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