Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Ten

Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. We’ll pick one player from each team who we have our eye on and describe why their weekend performance is a key one for them in relation to their dynasty value.

Since I’m in a fun mood this week (I will be on my honeymoon as this is posted on the website), every game will get a theme of a favorite (guilty pleasure) movie of mine.

Early Games

Kansas City at Buffalo (The Point Break game)

This game, much like the movie, has two big stars and a lot of people where you say “hey, I know him.” While Jamaal Charles is the Patrick Swayze of this matchup, perhaps Dwayne Bowe is our Gary Busey. A bit forgotten and sometimes you wonder if he’s drunk; Bowe has had at least five targets in every game he has played in this season. The matchup is pretty favorable, so Bowe should be heavily targeted once again.

Keanu Reaves-like hotshot Sammy Watkins is why you’re tuning in, but Robert Woods could steal the scene much like Flea. He may be in the background at first, but he should provide some key contributions by the end of this one. Woods has scored all his 2014 touchdowns with Kyle Orton at the helm (two in the last three weeks) so he may Point Break the plane. Too much?

Dallas at Jacksonville (The Unforgiven game)

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Remember that scene in the bar at the end of the movie? That’s what this game could turn into very quickly. Playing the role of the kid who can barely see may be Brandon Weeden. Accurate when something is right in front of him but can’t hit anything further away (like Dez Bryant). Weeden had 5.5 yards per attempt against what has been a generous Arizona team last week so things are bad. Tony Romo was practicing late this week but I’m not optimistic he goes on Sunday.

Cast in the role of unnamed gunman is Marqise Lee. Playing just nine snaps last week, Lee has quickly become the forgotten man in a deep receiving core. Despite a solid catch rate (64%), Lee was not even targeted once and has only seen five targets over the last three weeks. A darling of many pre-season pundits, Lee is losing his grip on a role in this offense, something that is pivotal given the development of Blake Bortles.

San Francisco at New Orleans (The Road House game)

Playing Sam Elliot’s older mentor-like character is veteran Anquan Boldin. He can still kick some butt when needed (note the six plus targets in every game this season) and also serves as a guiding hand for Colin Kaepernick. The Saints’ secondary resemble the tough guy with the pocket knife who doesn’t actually know how to fight. Boldin should see another solid game on what has been a very consistent season.

Playing the Dalton (Patrick Swayze again, sensing a theme?) character is Brandin Cooks. Looking at the numbers, many make the familiar statement “I thought you’d be bigger.” The diminutive Cooks averages 7.5 catches for 75 yards in odd-numbered games played (compared to three catches for 30 yards in even numbered games). This being his ninth game of the year and up against an average secondary, he should take care of the 49ers like rowdy locals at the Double Deuce.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (The Lethal Weapon game)

Like one Martin Riggs, this Falcons offense can be a bit schizophrenic. While not quite a shoulder dislocation, Harry Douglas has come back from injury (foot) and is already re-establishing himself in the pecking order. Douglas has at least five targets in his three healthy games this year, so he does have some value for those suffering from injury or bye woes.

Lovie Smith, meanwhile, is channeling his inner Roger Murtaugh. However, instead of second guessing retirement, it is his quarterback situation that is the central theme each week. Here, Josh McCown returns to the helm, replacing serviceable Mike Glennon. I’m not sure it is an upgrade (McCown has a 2:4 touchdown to interception ratio), but they are going to give it a try anyway.

Tennessee at Baltimore (The Rush Hour game)

All the hype around Justin Hunter just reminds me too much of Chris Tucker. A complete lack of polish hides the potential, resulting in very underwhelming 2014 numbers. A league high seven drops will only be tolerated for so long as Zach Mettenberger needs him to catch the ball, not just look good in a uniform to us stat heads.

While Steve Smith may have looked like Jackie Chan in Rush Hour at the beginning of the season (defying his age), Smith has turned into the Jackie Chan who played Mr. Miyagi in the Karate Kid remake. With just 71 yards in his last two games combined, Smith may be wearing down from all the attention defenses are paying him. There are only so many sequels to be made before it is time to let go.

Miami at Detroit (The Expendables game)

I wish I could say I picked this movie because there are so many stars here. No, I picked it because much like Sylvester Stallone, Ryan Tannehill has had a resurgence in recent times, but will fail in his performance here. Detroit employs one of the toughest secondaries coupled with a ferocious pass rush – a difficult script for a star, much less one as limited as Tannehill.

This movie series launched the comebacks of a lot of actors, so it seems fitting to use it as an analogy for the comeback of Calvin Johnson. The younger guy (in this case, Golden Tate) has flourished while Johnson has been away but he is back to get his spotlight. I expect Tate to revert to the six to seven target a game player he was early this year while Johnson is asked to perform against a difficult (but smaller) set of cornerbacks.

Pittsburgh at New York Jets (The Casino game)

Right now, Ben Roethlisberger looks like the Ace Rothstein of the NFL. Every gamble he takes is paying off and he is surrounded by guys willing to do anything for him. This week looks like a dream scenario as the Jets have given up the most passing touchdowns (25 already) and Roethlisberger has the hot hand. Eventually everyone goes bust but Big Ben should be able to keep it up for one more week.

If Ben is Ace Rothstein, Michael Vick looks like Nicky Santoro (Joe Pesci) towards the end of the movie. A once effective guy who now is a shell of himself, ready to be buried out in the middle of nowhere (in this case, behind the Jets’ offensive line). Vick has not surpassed 200 yards in any of his three games where he played the majority of the quarterback snaps. I don’t expect this to change here either.

Afternoon Games

New York Giants at Seattle (the Quick and the Dead game)

Terrible movi,e yet a guilty pleasure, much like this game could go. Odell Beckham is looking like the young, quick gunslinger (played by a child-like Leonardo DiCaprio) who is trying nothing more than to prove his worth. Much like “The Kid,” Beckham is coming out blazing, culminating in a career high eight catches for 156 yards last week. It will be interesting to see what Beckham does in this tough matchup to garner more respect.

Where one receiver is looking for respect, another in Doug Baldwin has taken it in a very Gene Hackman hanging the sheriff (Percy Harvin) and taking over the town (receiving core) kind of way. Baldwin has averaged six receptions since Harvin’s departure (he never had more than four catches in 2014 prior to the trade) and has established himself as the clear number one in this offense. With the loss of Prince Amukamara, Baldwin will see a Giants secondary one bullet short of a six shooter.

Denver at Oakland (The Battlefield Earth game)

Anyone who has seen this dumpster fire of a movie should understand why it is the choice here. I expect an absolutely abysmal game that somehow features a lot of good people (at least on one side). One of those is surging Ronnie Hillman who has broken 100 yards or scored a touchdown in each of the last four weeks. Hillman looks like the bellcow of this backfield down the stretch and the soft matchup here should cement his status further.

With Oakland, I expect a poor showing and a lot of regret for anyone hoping for something good. Trying to appear out of this black hole is Andre Holmes, the recipient of at least five targets in six of his seven games this season. Much like Barry Pepper in that awful movie, perhaps something good can come of this experience for Holmes.

St. Louis at Arizona (The Mortal Kombat game)

The Rams’ running game reminds me of Goro, the four-armed monster who is as unpredictable as it can be effective. Between Zac Stacy, Benny Cunningham, Tre Mason and Trey Watts (I needed a fourth for the analogy to work); the team is averaging over four yards per carry in 2014. Right now, Mason has become that clubbing right hand for the Rams (18 or more carries in two of the last three games) while Cunningham (eight to ten touches a game) is that peppering jab to chip away at a weakened opponent. While I don’t like any of them to start consistently, this is a fruitful situation if someone can finally establish themselves.

I guess this movie would make Michael Floyd into Raiden, a potential (fantasy) god who continues to disappear when he is needed most. After seeing more than five targets each of the first five games, Floyd has averaged just four in the last three weeks, all Carson Palmer starts. Floyd is the best option on this team but the philosophy is more of a spread attack than a one-man show, limiting his upside. I hate to say it, but if he has a great game, it may be a chance to sell high.

Sunday Night Football

Chicago at Green Bay (The Usual Suspects game)

Jay Cutler seems to be playing the Keaton role, capable of great things but not sure if he wants them and instead, causes everyone around him incidental pain. Cutler has had moments of greatness but his up and down nature has been brutal to owners of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. The 17:8 touchdown to interception ratio is great but the league leading nine fumbles (no one else has more than six) has been exceptionally damaging. Cutler needs to show up on the big stage against a rough secondary, otherwise, owners may be wise to part ways with the enigmatic quarterback.

If Aaron Rodgers is Keyser Soze (a brilliant, but brutal mastermind), then Randall Cobb is his Kobayashi. Cobb just does what his quarterback asks and that has led to nine touchdown receptions (tops in the NFL) spread out across seven of his eight games this season. That kind of consistency is what you want from a top receiver and it will keep you from scheming some brilliant plan to corner him in an elevator.

Monday Night Football

Carolina at Philadelphia (The Top Gun game)

The aerial comparisons aside, this game has all the star power and subplots you could ask for. In Carolina, Cam Newton has been playing the role of Cougar, the pilot who lost his ability to fly after a traumatic event. For Cam, that event seems to be surgery and his flying is his ability to run (see what I did there?). Last year, Cam only had one game under ten yards rushing, he already has three in 2014. While he seems to be getting comfortable again, five straight games with interceptions is a sign that Cam is still forcing things instead of relying on his scrambling abilities.

Mark Sanchez seems to have the unfortunate task of replacing Goose (Nick Foles) with Maverick (Chip Kelly) doing some soul-searching of his own. Sanchez had a pretty good game last week despite the two interceptions and will need his wingman, in this case Jeremy Maclin, to stay on his hot streak and bail him out when needed. Carolina has the look of those crappy MiG fighter planes from the movie, more nuisance than actual challenge. Now, if Maclin turns to Sanchez and says “You can be my wingman anytime”, well then this whole piece was worth the effort.

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