The Dynasty Trading Post

Ryan McDowell

tradingpost

It’s time to take another trip to the Dynasty Trading Post and find out what and who is being bought and sold as we near the end of the fantasy regular season.

This is very typical of types of trades that are going down in dynasty leagues this time of year. A handful of teams have decided they can’t compete this year and are looking to cash in their veterans for younger players and/or future draft picks. In general, these deals are the ultimate example of a win for both sides, but things can go wrong in a hurry for the team acquiring the veteran player. In this example, if the team landing Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch goes on to win the league title, this trade will be more than worth it. But, if he falters down the stretch and loses out on what has become a mid-first round pick, the sting could be felt for years to come. Also, in many cases, these veterans lose much of their value the moment the fantasy season ends. Don’t believe me? Try to pawn off Lynch for a first round pick on NFL Draft weekend and let me know how that goes.

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Here’s one from a big boy league, the Rotoworld staff league. Since his recent breakout performance a couple of weeks ago, Colts wide receiver Donte Moncrief has been one of the hottest names in dynasty, quickly catching up to the season long hype of some of his fellow rookie receivers. This one is less about moving potential for production and more about taking a stand on players you believe in. We all know running back Christine Michael has had his shares of backers despite doing almost nothing on the field. It’s clear that Sigmund Bloom is still a believer, giving up the red hot Moncrief.

This is another example of flipping youth for a veteran who could help your team win now. I share this example of DLF writer and podcast host Jarrett Behar’s trade to remind you that these veterans can sometimes be even cheaper that expected. I know as a Giants’ fan Jarrett was somewhat enamored by Corey Washington’s potential, but a player like that turning into a valuable fantasy asset is still a long-shot. On the other hand, the ageless wonder Antonio Gates has been playing at a very high level all year and could be the difference between a championship or a first round playoff loss, especially in a league rewarding additional points for tight end receptions. So, don’t be afraid to make an offer to those non-contending teams.

This rookie class is being hailed as one of the best of all time thanks to some impressive play in the first half of the season, especially from many of the wide receivers. In a league that is accustomed to wide receivers taking three years before magically breaking out, this class, much like others in recent years, is bucking that trend. There are a number of rookies already being considered as their team’s top pass catching option, but with all of the excitement and dynasty value being thrown about, there are a couple of players who have been very quiet. One of those is Broncos’ rookie Cody Latimer and the second is Marqise Lee. While their classmates are being showered with praise, they are sitting on the sidelines observing. This makes for an ideal time to acquire those players, just as Joey has done here. While Patriots’ rookie running back Jonas Gray might turn into something, it’s a tricky task to trust Bill Belichick and his running back usage. Flipping Gray for Latimer is a move I love and if Latimer or Lee were a player you liked through the draft process just a few short months ago, now is the time to throw out some offers for their services.

These types of deals are my favorites to pull off in dynasty leagues, though they are becoming difficult to finalize. In this deal, Derek packaged multiple “big names” for a first round pick. It wasn’t all that long ago that each of thee players, Lamar Miller and Ryan Mathews, would’ve been valued as a first round pick on their own. In my opinion, Derek does a couple things very well here. First, he realizes the actual trade value is likely just not there for these players as individuals, so he packages them together. Next, he moved two players who, in my opinion, are not special talents in order to attain a possible difference maker. Obviously there is some risk in any draft pick, but I’ll gladly take my chances on a high first rounder in a stacked class over a pair of middling backs who I don’t trust to start or stay healthy.

Tampa Bay running back Doug Martin has been one of the most disappointing players in the NFL this season and that’s evident after seeing this trade. Again, we’re seeing Gray dealt, this time for the player who just a year ago was the top overall player chosen in our off-season dynasty mock drafts. In fact, in many months, Martin finished with an ADP of 1, which is nearly impossible to do with so many different participants. After Martin suffered the season-ending injury, dynasty owners were disappointed, but never could’ve imagined that his 2014 season would go just as poorly. Martin has been injured and ineffective, being outplayed by veteran Bobby Rainey and reports are the team may be ready to move on to rookie Charles Sims as their starter. In fact, there were rumors that Martin was being shopped at last week’s deadline, though as often is the case in the NFL, no deal actually went down. While I wouldn’t personally go as far as moving Martin for a player like Gray, especially in a 16-team league where running backs have increased value, I also wouldn’t expect much more in return. If I have Martin, I’m holding and hoping he gets a shot elsewhere or can somehow turn this around.

I’ve realized one of my weaknesses as a dynasty owner (and writer) is realizing and properly assessing the value of the veteran breakout. When a rookie comes into the league and makes a quick impact, I am often quick to bump them up my rankings and assign an internal value commiserate with that of a long-time reliable performer. When that player gaining value has already been in the league for a few years though, I am slow to catch on that he is in fact, gaining value so quickly. This year’s case study is Emmanuel Sanders, who I’ve always been a fan of, but never expected this. Playing alongside Peyton Manning in his first season outside of Pittsburgh, Sanders has exploded, picking up where Eric Decker left off, and then some. Sanders is currently the WR5 in PPR leagues and I have to admit, I’m shocked by the value I’m seeing in each of these above trades.

First, he’s dealt as the main piece in a package bringing back Jimmy Graham and then in the second deal, he gets not only Brandon Marshall, but Jordan Reed as well. My first thought is to advise you to sell if these deals actually represent the going rates, but upon further thought, there’s no reason to expect Sanders to slow down this season, or as long as Manning is around.

Here’s yet another deal between what I presume would be a contender and a builder. Here, Chad has flipped Manning for not only a younger quarterback in Ryan Tannehill, but also a late first round pick. I mentioned this earlier with the Lynch deal, but one important thing to understand with trades like this is that these players will be valued in a completely different way come January once we are all looking towards the 2015 fantasy season. The off-season is the worst time to sell veterans (and therefore the best time to buy), so there’s a chance Chad may not have gotten either Tannehill or a first round pick for Manning this off-season. Here, he gets both.

Like Christine Michael, who I mentioned earlier, Cordarrelle Patterson was one of the darlings of the off-season, rising as high as a second round dynasty ADP, based on flashes he showed as a rookie. He hasn’t really built on that, to say the least, and some dynasty owners, like Kiefer have had enough. Not only do we see the deal made here, moving Patterson for a veteran like Roddy White and some lottery ticket picks, but we also get a glimpse of the emotion the deal brought. Joy, relief, frustration all at the same time. While I still love Patterson’s talent, and am not actively selling, I do certainly have some concerns and have dropped him several spots in my rankings. While I think this deal was a bit short sighted, I totally understand the feeling behind it.

Here’s another team looking towards the future and that often means selling off running backs, even players like LeSean McCoy. McCoy has slowed his scoring pace this year and fantasy players are feeling it. Moving him for younger pieces has actually been difficult in my leagues. I traded him for Michael Floyd and a second round pick in one league and two weeks later, tried the same exact deal and was told it wasn’t close. Times change quickly with running backs and to get a solid return on your investment, you may have to act quickly. I think Jeff did very well here to get a high first round pick and a top rookie receiver, along with the struggling Bishop Sankey.

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ryan mcdowell