Tuesday Transactions: Week Nine

Eric Hardter

welker

Dynasty football is undoubtedly a marathon, not a sprint. With that said, in-season roster management is still every bit as critical as in a standard re-draft format, and arguably even more so given the potential long-term ramifications. As such, this weekly piece is here to provide you with a dozen moves it might just behoove you to make.

Continuing, these transactions will be broken down into four categories: players you should buy low, sell high, buy high and sell low. The first two are self explanatory and follow the typical stock market analogy, which is that you should pounce when the market fluctuates in your favor – if you can get the most bang for your buck or scoop up the metaphorical penny stocks who have room to grow, it could be in your best interest to do so. Conversely, the latter two categories represent a contradictory stance, and some might even consider them “desperation” moves – however, it’s my belief that buying high beats buying higher, and selling low is preferable to selling even lower.

Before I dispense my advice though, I want to provide one final disclaimer – these opinions are my own. If you’re higher or lower on any of the players mentioned below you should absolutely stick to your guns. With that said, I believe there’s also enough of a sample size thus far in the season where we can begin to diverge from our off-season assessments.

In the interest of transparency, here were my week eight suggestions:

Buy Low: Matt Ryan, Vincent Jackson and Brandon Marshall

Sell High: Golden Tate, Tom Brady and Darren McFadden

Buy High: Donte Moncrief, Martavis Bryant and Tim Wright

Sell Low: Jake Locker, Bernard Pierce and Brian Hartline

Jackson (6-86-0) didn’t get traded but put forth solid numbers in a loss to the Browns. Brady (33/53, 333-4-1) demolished Denver and McFadden (13-20-0, 4-47-0) slowed versus Seattle. Bryant (3-44-2) scored his fifth touchdown in the past three games while Wright (0-0-0) was the polar opposite with a goose egg versus the Broncos. Pierce (1-2-0) was barely involved against the Steelers and personal favorite Hartline (5-50-0) produced his best game in weeks. At the time of this writing Moncrief hasn’t yet played, while Ryan, Marshall, Tate and Locker were on bye.

Onto the fallout from week nine!

Buy Low

  1. Robert Turbin, RB SEA – Barring injury, this transaction won’t pay immediate dividends but could be a smart play for the future. Marshawn Lynch is the lead dog in Seattle, but recent reports have suggested he’s simply not on the same page as the coaching staff, and more than likely won’t be back come 2015. Meanwhile, as noted by our own Karl Safchick, supposed future phenom Christine Michael has drawn the ire of his running backs coach, and isn’t anywhere near a lock to lead the backfield committee next year. To that point, albeit in a small sample size, Turbin has out-touched his more heralded backup brethren 36-10 on the year, while also averaging 4.5 YPC to Michael’s 3.3 – as of today, the anointing oils have yet to be uncorked. Given all this, acting now could net you the Seahawks’ running back of the future for the price of a firm handshake.
  2. Michael Floyd, WR AZ – In what can only be in honor of the Halloween holiday, Floyd clearly dressed up as the Invisible Man – the only problem is he’s been wearing that costume for the past few weeks. On the season Floyd has only sequestered 48 of the team’s 285 targets (16.8%), and the news gets even worse when you factor out the passes attempted by quarterbacks not named Carson Palmer. In Palmer’s five starts, Floyd’s 22 targets represent a mere 11.7% of the quarterback’s 188 throws, a number which is simply too low for fantasy viability. With that said, we’re still talking about a third-year, first-round receiver who eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards as a sophomore – if doubt is creeping into another owner’s mind, now’s the time to pounce.
  3. Marqise Lee, WR JAX – 2014 has been relatively kind to the young pass catchers on the Jacksonville roster, but Lee has failed to reap any benefits while the “Allens” (Hurns and Robinson) easily lead the team in most relevant receiving categories. With that said, there’s clearly room to feed three mouths, as fellow receiver Cecil Shorts III has accrued 54 targets in just six games. With Shorts in the final year of his contract, there’s no guarantees with regards to next year’s depth chart – though Lee might be the forgotten man right now, his stock could be trending up as 2015 approaches.

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Sell High

  1. Mark Ingram, RB NO – At the conclusion of last week’s Thursday night contest between the Saints and Panthers, the “Twitterverse” came down with a severe case of Ingram Fever. While his effort was punctuated by 100 yards and two touchdowns, the route was paved in quicksand as it took 30 carries for Ingram to get there despite playing against the league’s 32nd ranked run defense (in terms of YPC). Digging deeper, Ingram’s three best games (in terms of YPC) came against the #12 (Atlanta), #29 (Cleveland) and #30 (Green Bay) run defenses (also in terms of YPC), while his only game against a top-tier unit (Detroit – #2) yielded a mere 1.6 YPC. Much has been made of the likelihood Ingram will receive a full workload in a different locale come 2015, but little has been spoken about whether the offense can open things up as the Drew Brees-led Saints do. I’d much rather let someone else find out, and if you can sell for a future first round pick I’d get out soon.
  2. Ben Roethlisberger, QB PIT – This one is fairly self-explanatory. Roethlisberger is a great NFL quarterback, but has always been a better real-life player than fantasy asset during his 11 years in the league. To that point, he’s never exceeded 32 passing touchdowns in a season, and his previous best TD/INT ratio stood at 3.4:1. Nine games into the 2014 season, Big Ben is suddenly on pace for 39 touchdowns, while his TD/INT ratio stands at a Foles-ian (circa 2013) 7.3:1. As we know, this has largely been aided by the whopping twelve touchdowns he’s thrown over the past two weeks. All this will more than likely result in a finish as a mid-range QB1 at worst this season, but if you can sell him for players with more of a proven track record of fantasy success I wouldn’t hesitate to do so.
  3. Bobby Rainey, RB TB – You may recall Rainey was previously featured in this space as a “sell low” candidate several weeks ago. However, due to the combination of another Doug Martin injury and Charles Sims not quite ready for action, Rainey took the reigns against Cleveland on Sunday. The result was a microcosm of his Tampa tenure, as Rainey (19-87-0, 1-34-0) once again dusted up a poor defense. As we’ve seen before though, attempting to ride the Rainey lighting for a prolonged stretch typically results in a fantasy drizzle, not a downpour. With Martin and Sims expected back soon enough, I’d sell as soon as possible.

Buy High

  1. Alfred Blue, RB HOU – Blue’s numbers on the year (3.4 YPC) are nothing to write home about, but this suggestion has little to due with the sixth-round rookie. Starter Arian Foster once again succumbed to a soft-tissue injury, and while the Texans are on bye next week reports have already surfaced that there’s pessimism coming from team sources. Even if Foster makes it back in time for week 11, this continues a trend of him getting nicked up far too often for fantasy owners’ collective liking. Blue’s price undoubtedly went up with this recent news, but no other Houston running back has exceeded seven carries on the year – simply put, he’s a must-add handcuff.
  2. Robert Quinn, DE STL – I’m no IDP guru by any stretch of the imagination, but I know enough to say Quinn is finally starting to pick up where he left off a the conclusion of last season. Over the past three games he’s put forward the following statistics – 13 tackles, 5.0 sacks, 1.0 TFL and two forced fumbles, good for elite DE1 numbers no matter what type of format you play. The “buy-low” window following a slow start is more than likely 98% of the way shut (if it even existed to begin with), so you’d inarguably be paying more now than you would a month ago – but with what “The Mighty Quinn” has been able to show over the past season and a half, he should be worth it.
  3. Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA – Following a slow start to the season where he was publicly questioned by coach Joe Philbin, Tannehill has put the Dolphins on his back during their current three-game winning streak. Over that period the third-year starter has completed 68% of his passes for a weekly 254 yards and two touchdowns (to only one total interception). More importantly, Tannehill has begun to utilize his legs more, compiling 15 carries for an additional 143 yards on the ground. All told, this has resulted in 22.6 weekly fantasy points, which would be good for low-end QB1 numbers in most leagues. Still improving under center (don’t forget he was a receiver his first two years in college), Tannehill may finally be emerging as the future of the franchise.

Sell Low

  1. Ben Tate, RB CLE – Though his season started with promise, Tate has struggled to the tune of 2.2 YPC over the course of his last four games. While some of this coincides to the loss of center Alex Mack, the point is Tate has effectively removed himself from starting consideration. Head coach Mike Pettine has already stated backup Terrance West has earned a larger piece of the pie, and made good on his promise by giving the rookie 16 touches to Tate’s 14. Not guaranteed a roster spot next year, and always an injury risk, it’s fair to wonder if Tate will ever realize his potential and function as a useful fantasy asset.
  2. Wes Welker, WR DEN – Though his usage (eight targets in just over a half) improved upon previous games, Welker (3-31-0) simply didn’t do anything with them. His disappointing day concluded with a dropped pass resulting in an interception, a play where he simultaneously injured his back on a big hit. Though his injury isn’t viewed as severe, he was already the fourth target (at best) in the passing game, not scoring at nearly the same pace as in 2013. With his time in the Mile High City set to come to an end following this season, it’s fair to wonder if the former PPR dynamo’s time as a set-it-and-forget-it starter is at an end.
  3. Colin Kaepernick, QB SF – Despite being surrounded by arguably the best supporting cast of his career, Kaepernick’s regression has continued through the midway point of 2014. Many of his numbers, including YPA, YPC, TD/INT ratio, QBR and rushing touchdowns have decreased for the second consecutive year, and Kaepernick has only exceeded one passing touchdown three times on the year. While it’s far too soon to label him a bust, he simply hasn’t shown nearly enough refinement to his play. Put succinctly, his name is much bigger than his game right now, and when that happens it’s time to get out while the gettin’ is good.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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eric hardter