Rushing Receivers: Mid-Season Update

Russell Clay Posted On October 31, 2014

montgomery

Editor’s Note: This is a Dynasty Scouts exclusive article. Remember, our Dynasty Scouts section focuses on the stars of tomorrow, with a laser focus on High School recruits and College players who look to have the talent to be future assets in dynasty leagues and have value today in devy leagues. Dynasty Scouts articles are found in our Premium Content.

Howdy Folks, we’re about halfway through the college football season and I think I’d be a fun exercise to have a progress report! Considering this is my first year looking at these specific data points, I wasn’t sure how things were going to shake out. One paragraph is enough of an intro, though. If you aren’t familiar with Rushing Receivers I suggest reading this or this. The basic premise is wide receivers who are successful in both rushing and receiving translate and succeed in the NFL.

The list of 2014 players that fit the criteria for a ‘rushing receiver’ was 17 players long, so I’m going to go through those players now and we’ll see how things are working out.

NOTE: All player stats can and will be found HERE.

Also, you’ll notice next to the players’ name/college, there is a number. That number is the players’ market share, or the percentage that player has of their entire team’s receiving yardage. I’ve been playing around with those numbers lately and I’ve decided this is a pretty important thing to keep track of in order to have good context of the statistics.

Example: Player X had 25 receiving yards. The team had a total of 100. Therefore, player X had 25% of the team’s receiving yards.

I think it’s important to distinguish this because the range of talent at the quarterback position on the college level is so vast, and mostly in a bad way. Also, some of these college teams run the ball 55-60% of the time *cough* Keon Hatcher *cough*.

Anyhow, let’s take a look.

17. Tommylee Lewis, Northern Illinois (<1%)

Brutal news. Lewis is out for the season with a lower leg injury. Sounds like he’s going to get a medical red-shirt, so I suppose we’ll keep an eye on him for 2015.

16. JD McKissic, Arkansas State (27.3%)

Stats are up and play is up for McKissic. My biggest issue with him is the quality of competition. I like those seasonal totals, but he struggled to produce against the big boys (Tennessee/Miami) early on in the season. Based on his season so far, McKissic deserves to be on this list, and has risen above a few players placed above him on the initial list.

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

15. BJ Knauf, Purdue (8.1%)

Injured and under producing, Knauf is not having the year you’d like to see from him. He ranked second lowest on the list with 7.2 yards per touch and suffered a collarbone injury that will keep him out the next three to four weeks. While only a sophomore, Knauf is going to have to gain some major momentum before he can be even considered an NFL prospect.

14. Shane Williams-Rhodes, Boise State (16.7%)

It appears Rhodes the runner is much better than Rhodes the receiver. His yards per reception is 1.7 lower this year, which is the opposite direction of where he needed it to go. Simply put, Rhodes doesn’t create enough big plays to average out his lack of measurables.

13. Jakeem Grant, Texas Tech (27.5%)

Grant has become the featured receiver in Texas Tech’s offense, and he’s playing along the same as he did in 2013. With only one rush so far this year, I’m a little confused as to why they aren’t using him more in that area, but considering how he’s played essentially as a pure receiver this year, I can’t really argue. I can’t picture Grant being more than a special teams player or a part time fourth or fifth option on offense, but he’s exceeded my expectations I had going into the year. He should get a few looks as an undrafted free agent when he decides to declare, but I can’t imagine he leaves after this season, so we’ll see if he can continue to improve.

12. Aaron Grubb, UTSA (10.4%)

Not much action for Grubb so far this year, and unfortunately, not many big plays. Grubb has only had 13 touches and much like Knauf, isn’t doing much with those opportunities, struggling his way to eight yards per touch. As of now Grubb is fifth on his own team in receiving yards, not a good sign for his future as a pro.

11. Bryan Underwood, North Carolina State (6.2%)

Not much going on for Underwood. He’s playing in these games, they simply aren’t giving him the ball. One 65 yard touchdown is propping up the numbers right now, but don’t be fooled. That was his only play that went longer than 11 yards so far. It’s looking like Underwood’s 2012 campaign where he had 620 receiving yards and ten touchdowns was more an aberration than something he could grow from.

1o. Ricardo Louis, Auburn (8.9%)

The physical tools are there, I’m sure of it. BUT, It seems rest of Louis’ game can’t keep up. D’haquille Williams has had a much bigger role than many expected and he’s pushed everyone else to the side. There’s no shame in this for Louis, Sammie Coates has been a casualty as well. A slight regression in the pass game doesn’t worry me nearly as much as the lack of explosive plays in the running game. Five carries for seven yards isn’t going to cut it.

9. Keevan Lucas, Tulsa (38.2%)

FINALLY!

Here’s someone exciting to talk about. Lucas has blown this season out of the water so far, taking the reigns of Tulsa’s offense. He’s currently sixteenth in the nation in receiving yards. His yards per reception is down a bit, but you’d expect that with the insane increase in volume and also being the main focus of every defense. The craziest part about this is Tulsa isn’t that much better than the previous year. They currently stand at 1-5, you hardly ever see stats like what Lucas is putting up on teams this bad. Lucas has also accounted for seven of their 11 touchdowns, which is probably not a good sign for Tulsa, but a ringing endorsement for the player. While his volume as a receiver has gone up, It seems they’re content with limiting his touches as a rusher. In his six rushes though, he’s averaging 7.8 YPC, +1.7 compared to his 2013 numbers.

For some perspective, here’s what Lucas is on pace for after six games.

Receptions: 106
Receiving Yards: 1298
Touchdowns: 14

8. Sterling Shepard, Oklahoma (46.8%)

ANOTHER EXCITING GUY TO TALK ABOUT. Shepard has been amazing so far this year. Much like Lucas, Shepard has supplanted himself as the go to guy in the offense, and being extremely efficient at the same time. Shepard currently stands at sixth in the nation with 714 receiving yards on only 34 catches. That’s 21 yards per reception. He’s definitely lower than he should’ve been, but I’m not sure there’s any way you could’ve predicted quite this large of a breakout. Shepard has been underwhelming running the ball, averaging only five yards per carry, but with the video game type numbers he’s putting up catching the ball, and the running after the catch ability he’s shown on a consistent basis this year, I’m willing to let it slide.

7. Jameon Lewis, Mississippi State (14.1%)

Lewis was finally beginning to get some momentum. In weeks four and five of the season, Lewis totaled 11 catches for 192 yards. They were finally getting him involved in the offense after completely neglecting him in the first two games. Most impressively, Lewis had five catches for 116 yards and a touchdown in Mississippi State’s season making win over LSU. Unfortunately Lewis suffered a leg injury after that game and has been sidelined since. A bittersweet start to the season, hopefully he can get back on the field and help lead his team to an improbable National Championship run.

6. Mario Alford, West Virginia (18.6%)

Well, I can’t say I saw Kevin White coming, at all. In the initial article, I wrote about how Alford was primed and ready to take over and be the lead dog on West Virginia, obviously that was a tad off base. The good news is that Alford has been a main contributor and has held his own, even when White’s star is shining. Obviously it was going to be tough to keep up his 20 yards per reception pace from last year, he’s already caught seven more passes this year than last and has two 100 yard games to his name. Seemingly the theme of this list, more of a role in the receiving game has caused much less usage in the running game. Alford only has one carry for 18 yards this year.

5. Keon Hatcher, Arkansas (26.6%)

If you take a look at Hatcher’s volume, it isn’t pretty and probably wouldn’t make you take a second look. BUT, his efficiency and explosive plays are tops in the country. Three of Hatcher’s 19 touches have gone for 44+ yards, all of them going for touchdowns. He’s also a main part of the offense, the #1 option in the receiving game. In fact, Hatcher has 106 more receiving yards than anyone else on the team. The issue is that Arkansas runs the ball 65% of the time. You heard me, Six. Five. Percent. Hatcher is never going to get the volume to impress on the national level but trust me, the explosion is there.

4. Rannell Hall, South Florida (14.9%)

Probably the most disappointing player on the list. Hall hasn’t played poorly this year, he’s still firmly in the top ten of this group, but he’s severely underwhelming my expectations. 24 touches so far this year, the two longest have gone for 16 yards. 9.1 yards per reception? Not going to cut it. Three yards per carry? Not going to cut it. Zero touchdowns? Not going to cut it. Fourth on his OWN team in receiving? not going to cut it. These are not numbers worthy of me ranking him Fourth in the preseason. Still haven’t totally given up, but this does raise the question of how inflated his stats were by having Blake Bortles.

3. Ty Montgomery, Stanford (25.1%)

While he has more volume than Hall, and also leads his team in receiving, Montgomery has been a pretty big disappointment from an efficiency standpoint. Like Hall, numbers are down across the board. He’s still shown consistency on getting into the end zone, but other than that, I’m going to need to see more to stick with my initial read on him as a prospect.

2. Stefon Diggs, Maryland (28.9 %)

Diggs is a different story than the most of these players. In the world we live in now, we assume major injuries are easy to overcome, and that players should be back to 100% within a year. While the bones and tendons may heal, a player’s confidence is the most valuable situation to monitor. What I’ve seen so far this year from Diggs is encouraging, even if his numbers are down. He’s a player that is going to be very interesting to watch from a draft position standpoint, talent is undeniable. I expect his numbers to slowly improve as the season goes on.

1. Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh (44.2%)

Boy, do I miss Tom Savage. As I wonder how many people in the world have said that in the last few months, I’d imagine I know at least one other person who feels similar. That person would be Tyler Boyd. While his yards per reception has actually risen this year from 13.8 to 14.3, it’s agonizing to watch Pittsburgh to try to get him the ball. Boyd hasn’t scored a touchdown in three games, Pittsburgh has only scored a total of five in those games. Chad Voytik is a young player and I expect things to get better in the next year and a half, but it has been a complete struggle so far. Boyd’s rushing numbers are down as well, ten carries for 55 yards. He’s now the big dog on campus, and he’s going to have to adapt to being the main focus of every defense.

Now that we’ve gone through the list, here’s how I’d rank them with this first half of the season considered.

17. Tommylee Lewis, Northern Illinois
16. BJ Knauf, Purdue
15. Aaron Grubb, UTSA
14. Bryan Underwood, North Carolina State
13. Ricardo Louis, Auburn
12. Shane Williams-Rhodes, BSU
11. JD McKissic, Arkansas State
10. Jakeem Grant, Texas Tech
9. Rannell Hall, Central Florida
8. Jameon Lewis, Mississippi State
7. Mario Alford, West Virginia
6. Ty Montgomery, Stanford
5. Keevan Lucas, Tulsa
4. Keon Hatcher, Arkansas
3. Sterling Shepard, Oklahoma
2. Stefon Diggs, Maryland
1. Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh

Here are some notable players who make the 2015 version!