Dynasty Mythbusters: Mid-Season Rankings
It’s hard to believe that we are already at the halfway point of the fantasy season for those teams which will be lucky enough to make it to the championship and past that point for everyone else! It is around this time of year when we need to stop thinking about potential and start to acknowledge the truth which is actually unfolding around us. Or to put it a different way we need to switch from Dennis Green’s, “They are who we thought they were,” view to more of a Bill Parcells view of, “You are what your record says you are.”
I’m not saying everything that has happened over the first eight weeks will perfectly mirror what will happen over the last half of the season, but it might be time to admit we were wrong on a few counts. No matter how much I like the guy, I’m ready to admit Montee Ball isn’t going to be a RB1 this season, yet Ahmad Bradshaw is fifth in points per game for PPR running backs. Does that mean it is time to trade Ball plus something for Bradshaw? Not necessarily.
In order to give a little bit of a look back and a bit of a projection going forward, I’m going to abandon my normal approach for this column for the week and instead take a look at the top 12 players by points per game played at each of the four major positions. I’ll give my thoughts on if they will stay there for the rest of the season or even moving forward to future seasons or if they are going to be dropping out at some point in the not too distant future.
All players are ranked using standard PPR scoring and based on their points per game played to help remove some of the impact of if a player has had their bye week as well as early season injuries.
Quarterbacks
1: Andrew Luck
2: Peyton Manning
3: Russell Wilson
4: Aaron Rodgers
5: Philip Rivers
6: Drew Brees
7: Jay Cutler
8: Carson Palmer
9: Kyle Orton
10: Ben Roethlisberger
11: Colin Kaepernick
12: Tom Brady
I think we all knew Luck’s time was coming, but it is a pretty big surprise to me to see it arrive so soon. I definitely didn’t expect him to be leading one of the best offenses in the league and leading all quarterbacks in scoring at the halfway point of the season. He’s on pace for 5,462 yards and 44 touchdowns, which would go down as one of the best seasons in NFL history. It’s only his third year and he’s only 25 years old, so he has to come down off that pace, right? Maybe. Either way, he’s clearly an elite option for the next 10+ years.
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Biggest Surprises: For the most part, we expected the names on the list to be there, though Palmer and Orton are the easy exceptions for me here. Both have been very quietly putting up solid QB1 numbers each and every week with at least 17 fantasy points in every game they have started. While they definitely aren’t long term options due to age, I think they will both be serviceable though low ceiling quarterbacks for the rest of this year and potentially next season as well if they can keep it up. I would expect them to have a bad game here or there, but I think they will end up in the 10-15 range this year and could be a potential low price option should someone in need of a starter due to injury or some other reason.
Notable Players Missing: Quarterback discussions were very interesting this last off-season because most people had about 16 quarterbacks in their top ten. What I mean is if you looked at the list above back in July, there were really only two surprises on there and all the rest were very reasonable if not extremely common in most top ten lists – then you’re missing players like Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Nick Foles, Tony Romo, Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton. All six of these players also showed up in an awful lot of pre-season rankings of the top ten quarterbacks.
What can we expect from them going forward?
Ryan has the unfortunate luck of playing behind one of the most injured offensive lines in recent memory. When you consider they were merely average to start and then add in a questionable running game you get a very down year. He’ll be back to solid QB1 production, but I don’t think it will be this season. Stafford is down a bit due in large part to missing his top weapon. Yes, Golden Tate has been playing very, very well recently, but he isn’t Calvin Johnson. I fully expect Stafford to regain QB1 status by the end of the season once Megatron is back and healthy. When it comes to Foles, I think the expectations were a little too high for him. He isn’t an elite option, but he is a very solid quarterback and NFL starter. With the Cowboys running DeMarco Murray into the ground, they haven’t had to throw as much, which is limiting Romo’s upside a bit. Combine that with age and his mid-level QB1 days might be over. As for RG3 and Cam, injuries have taken their toll on the pair. I don’t think RG3 will ever reach the expectations set for him because he can’t stay healthy. Cam just doesn’t have the weapons around him to be a top tier player and he can’t be expected to do everything himself. The Panthers’ misuse of cap space over the years isn’t going to help him either.
Running Backs
1: Matt Forte
2: Arian Foster
3: DeMarco Murray
4: Le’Veon Bell
5: Ahmad Bradshaw
6: Mark Ingram*
7: Andre Ellington
8: Marshawn Lynch
9: Giovani Bernard
10: Jamaal Charles
11: Lamar Miller
12: Darren Sproles
*Ingram only has 4 games on the season, so his ranking is slightly misleading
Looking at the list of running backs, the first item which stands out to me is the number of players who are supposed to be past their prime. Half of the players on the list will be 28 or older by the end of the season. People often discount running backs too early in my opinion, but we all know eventually they will fall off the cliff, probably in the next two years – that means there is going to be a lot of room for the next batch of runners to make their mark in a few years. Players like Ingram, Ellington and Miller are all making their first appearances and while the sample size is a little small and there have been moments of success and failure for all three, they all have looked promising so far on the season.
Biggest Surprises: Some might consider Ingram and Miller surprises this year, but I expected both of them to actually have pretty good seasons. While I might not have had them pegged as top 12 running backs this season, I’m not shocked to see it. What is shocking to me is that Bradshaw and Sproles are on this list. Considering both of them entered the season as backups and neither of the starters have missed major time due to injury, it is a surprise to seem them on the list while the starters are absent. When it comes to Bradshaw, regardless of your feelings about Trent Richardson’s status as a potential bust, it has been pretty easy to see that he has been the best running back on the team. I expect him to stay the top back on the team and a top 10 running back for the rest of the season given the high powered Colts offense. If you’re making a championship push, he’s a nice player to target. As for Sproles, I think he’s going to fall down to RB2 level if not lower pretty soon here. His average is being boosted by an exceptional week 2 and I don’t see that happening again. It is time to sell him if you haven’t already.
Notable Players Missing: Two of the most notable names missing or the two players who landed themselves in legal trouble, Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson. Clearly neither of them are coming back to play a big role this year if ever. Other popular picks for the top 12 running backs were CJ Spiller, Ryan Mathews, Bernard Pierce and Montee Ball who have all had their seasons derailed by injury, either costing them the season or enough of it that their backups have carved out a role. This will limit their opportunity once they come back.
When it comes to severe underperformance, a trio of running backs lead the charge in that category. LeSean McCoy, Doug Martin and Eddie Lacy were all drafted as top running backs but haven’t been performing at anywhere near that level. Of the three, I definitely expect McCoy to end the year as a RB1. The Eagles offensive line has been decimated by injury and McCoy hasn’t had much in the way of running room. He was also slowed earlier in the year by a toe injury and a rough schedule. He seems healthier now and his schedule opens up, which should allow him to regain his status. When it comes to Martin and Lacy I’m much less optimistic. Tampa is a mess and Martin isn’t getting the workload he needs to be a solid fantasy producer. I don’t see that changing down the road. If anything it could go the other direction as other running backs get healthy. With Lacy, I expect him to be a solid RB2, but I don’t know if he’ll crack the RB1 ranks. He’s been an inconsistent play partially due to splitting time with James Starks and partially due to his productivity dropping off a bit. He has been better as of late, but I don’t think we’ll see the same Lacy we saw as a rookie. He’s on pace for just 856 rushing yards, which isn’t going to cut it if he’s going to be a RB1.
Wide Receivers
1: Antonio Brown
2: Demaryius Thomas
3: Jordy Nelson
4: Jeremy Maclin
5: Emmanual Sanders
6: Randall Cobb
7: Golden Tate
8: TY Hilton
9: Julio Jones
10: Dez Bryant
11: Mohamed Sanu
12: Steve Smith
When you consider that wide receiver is supposed to be one of the more consistent spots with clearly defined tiers, there are a lot of names on this list no one would have ever guessed at the start of the season. You see the usual suspects like Brown, Thomas, Cobb, Nelson, Jones and Bryant. But a lot of the biggest names aren’t even close to being on this list. Players like Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall were supposed to be locks for top flight production. While each of them has struggled with injury this year, in some cases allowing the secondary receiver on their teams to step up, they have still underperformed thus far.
Biggest Surprises: Tate and Sanu can be explained by the injuries to Johnson and Green, so while it is surprising it is understandable for them to be there now. I don’t expect either one to keep up their pace once the superstars return, making them fall down the list a bit. Sanders and Hilton were middle or high end WR2s heading into the season in my book due to their quarterbacks and talent level, so I’m not shocked by either of them. The biggest surprises for me have been Maclin and Smith. If I’m being perfectly honest, Maclin was an afterthought for me this off-season, but his double digit targets in all but one game this season make it clear that wasn’t the case for the Eagles. While he isn’t a top tier talent, his role in the offense is very clear and he’s going to stay a rock solid WR1 for the rest of the year. When it comes to Smith, the 35-year old is reminding us what it means to be a potential Hall of Famer. He started out as a dominant player, perhaps catching all of the NFL teams by surprise as well but has slowed recently. He’s been under 70 yards three times on the year, all of them in the last four weeks. He’s also had five or fewer receptions five times, with four of them being in the last four weeks. His pace is slowing and I think his best weeks might already be in the rear-view mirror. He’s a WR2 at best from here on out.
Notable Players Missing: I already mentioned four of the biggest missing names with Megatron, Green, Jeffery and Marshall. I fully expect Megatron and Green to come back with a vengeance once healthy and prove why they are two of the best in the game. I wish I could say the same for Jeffery and Marshall. The Bears’ passing game is struggling this year and it might not be good enough to make them both WR1s. The issue is it is a coin flip on which of the two will produce on any given week and which one is going to frustrate owners. While you obviously need to start them each and every week, you’re going to be disappointed from time to time, which wasn’t often the case last year.
A few of the other names which were common on top 12 lists heading into the season are Pierre Garcon and Michael Floyd. Garcon’s production has been hurt significantly by not only having a new system and a competent receiver across from him, but also the fact that Washington has had three different quarterbacks on the year. Until there is some consistency at the most important position, he’s going to struggle to regain his form and 2013 was likely a career year for him. As for Floyd, he is healthy but clearly not a huge part of the game plan. While he does have four games with over 100 yards or a touchdown, he has one or no catches in the other three games this year. The worst part about it might be that the Cardinals are winning with him having such limited production. They are spreading the ball around a lot and not forcing it to anyone. Those waiting for the major breakout from Floyd are going to need to wait at least one more year.
Tight Ends
1: Rob Gronkowski
2: Julius Thomas
3: Martellus Bennett
4: Antonio Gates
5: Greg Olsen
6: Jimmy Graham
7: Delanie Walker
8: Larry Donnell
9: Marcedes Lewis*
10: Travis Kelce
11: Dwayne Allen
12: Heath Miller
*Lewis only played 2 games, but will be back for the stretch run of the season.
This was supposed to be the year of the breakout tight ends. Players like Zach Ertz, Jordan Reed, Kyle Rudolph, Tyler Eifert and Ladarius Green in addition to a bumper crop of rookie tight ends were supposed to push the aging tight ends to the fantasy back burner. While some have taken jumps forward, it hasn’t been enough for any of them to crack the top 12 so far this season. Some of them aren’t even seeing playing time.
Biggest Surprises: For the most part, the tight end list includes players who were all popular picks to be in the top group. Even players like Miller and Kelce were popular sleeper picks. The real surprises on this list are Walker, Donnell and Lewis. Lewis only played two games this season before getting injured and giving way to Clay Harbor for the last several weeks. Harbor has also played very well, meaning the tight end position for the Jags is actually a reliable source of points. The problem is once Lewis is back they will likely limit each other making them both TE2s. Donnell got off to a hot start, but has only 10 targets total over the last three games. He’s inconsistent and his role will change from week to week. I doubt he finishes the season as a TE1. The 30 year old Walker is on pace for his best season ever, which doesn’t happen much at his age. The problem with Walker is he has only two games with five catches or over 60 yards, making him very touchdown dependent and extremely inconsistent even if he does finish as a TE1, which is questionable.
Notable Players Missing: The biggest names missing from the list are probably the young guns everyone expected to finally have their breakout. Reed, Rudolph, and Eifert have all been held back by injuries, which have been a common trend for all three of them. Ertz has been productive but not quite at the level many had hoped he would be. He only has one game with over four receptions and that was a five catch for 48 yard performance. That isn’t going to do it. As for Green, Gates suddenly looks five years younger this year, making the youngster little more than an occasional spot player.
There is a pair of perennial top tight ends who are missing from the list, Jason Witten and Vernon Davis. The 32-year old Witten and 30-year old Davis just might be coming to the end of their reigns. After years and years of top flight production, both seem to be slowing down. Davis has missed two games with reoccurring injuries and had a very reduced role in the other five, totaling only 14 receptions for 142 yards through those games. Witten has fared better, but the former PPR monster with seven straight seasons over 73 or more receptions only has 28 in eight games. He seems to be one of the major components of the Cowboy’s offense which has fallen off with the surging running game. He also seems to have lost a step on his route. I doubt either one will get back to their glory days.
Which players do you see falling out or jumping up into the top 12 by the end of the year?
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