The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

mckinnon

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

  1. In a 10-team, non-PPR league would you trade Eddie Lacy for either Sammy Watkins or Jerick McKinnon? – Jason in Woodbury

I’ve mentioned previously (the phrase ad nauseam could perhaps be utilized) about the importance of running backs in a non-PPR format. The more you have, the better, and the better they are, the, um, better-er. If you can then throw in the variables of youth and stature on a prolific offense, as is the case with Green Bay’s Eddie Lacy, you’ve essentially hit positional nirvana.

But even with all those elements in the equation, I can only think of a few ball carriers with whom I wouldn’t part for Bills rookie receiver Sammy Watkins, and Lacy isn’t one of them. While I still believe in his talent, he’s undoubtedly taken a step back in a sophomore campaign which has seen both his volume and efficiency take a hit. Functioning more as an ancillary piece these days, I just can’t advise ranking him over a player who has already established himself as one of the most electrifying playmakers in the NFL – I’d take this deal.

I wouldn’t, however, trade Lacy for Vikings running back Jerick McKinnon. He’s a physical freak in the mold of Barry Sanders, and his production since being names starter has been nothing short of impressive. But much like with Lacy himself, we’ve seen regression hit second-year players, and McKinnon simply hasn’t established enough of a sample size to consider shipping Lacy away in a straight-up deal – if you can get a late first or early second round pick thrown back as well, I’d pull the trigger.

  1. What are your thoughts on the Rams running back situation? I own Tre Mason in a 16-team dynasty league, and was wondering if you think he’s the lead back now, and what his value will be going forward? – Dylan in PA

[inlinead]My current thoughts about the Rams backfield are simple – I don’t think much of it. Having devolved into a true timeshare (three St. Louis ball carriers had at least five touches), it’s near impossible to discern how the wealth will be spread on a weekly basis. As such it’s my belief 2014 will be a total crapshoot that’s best left avoided, but moving forward I expect rookie Tre Mason to ultimately take over as the lead dog.

Zac Stacy has firmly established himself as JAVDG (Just a Volume Dependent Guy), lacking dynamic and requiring a plethora of carries and touchdowns to sustain value. Benny Cunningham, while more efficient than Stacy, doesn’t seem to have the coaches’ faith as anything more than a third-down back. Though either one could steal touches during the rest of the season, I don’t see a preponderance of standalone value.

This leaves Mason, who wasn’t drafted in the third round by accident. As mentioned, he’ll likely struggle to put forth consistency for the rest of the year, but moving forward I expect him to take over. If he can improve his usage in the passing game while sequestering the majority of the carries, I see him easily establishing low-end RB1 viability in a 16-team league.

  1. In my half-PPR league I currently have both Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis on my team, and another owner is interested in acquiring him. He’s looked very good when given the opportunity, but I’m concerned he’s going to follow the same path as Bryce Brown and Bernard Pierce and never amount to the promise they showed in limited time. Do I have a legitimate concern and what should I expect in return for him? – Dan in NH

You absolutely have a legitimate concern. Chiefs backup Knile Davis, in my estimation, has shown little to suggest his actual talent comes close to his measureables. To wit, let’s consider his season to date.

In the five games where he achieved at least ten carries, he’s only broken the 4.0 YPC barrier twice. One of those contests was a true bell-cow effort, when he rushed 32 times for 132 yards against a stout Miami run defense in a dominating Kansas City win. The other, when he went off for 107 yards on 16 carries against New England, was aided by a 48-yard jaunt where he moved through a truck-sized hole courtesy of his offensive line. While it’s not necessarily fair to do, that run was nearly double the length of any of his other carries, and if removed his average on the season drops to 3.6 YPC, or just a hair above his 2013 average.

Throwing in the fumbles (three so far this year; five in his short career) and it’s fair to wonder if he has feature-back viability. He’s certainly no Jamaal Charles, a player who has yet to have a season where he finishes below 5.0 YPC, and JC is signed (in theory) through 2017. Given the totality of these circumstances, if you can get a second round pick for Davis I think you’ll have done well.

  1. What should I do with Ladarius Green? We play in a non-PPR league with 20 roster spots and he has no trade value. However, I notice that he is still ranked as the DLF #8 dynasty tight end. Is this an accurate ranking? Is Ladarius Green ever going to pan out? – Michael in NY

Ladarius Green is dynasty football personified. Despite having proven precious little on the field, the third-year tight end is still regarded by many as the heir-apparent in San Diego, a role he should fill in an exemplary fashion due to his sublime physical traits. Of course, with the venerable Antonio Gates still going strong and scoring seemingly at will, the question needs to be asked – how long will Green be waiting?

With Gates still playing at a high level, and quarterback Philip Rivers spreading the wealth amongst his myriad of receiving options, Green has been effectively relegated to a state of dynasty purgatory. Barring a marked philosophical shift with the offense, or an injury, it appears unlikely Green will come into his own anytime soon. On the other hand, if you believed in him before and felt he only needed to bide his time, can you really give up now?

I don’t think you can. Though we don’t know when, there will come a point where Green gets his shot, at which point he has the potential to put up numbers. While I personally don’t believe he’ll ever pan out to be the elite force many thought, TE1 sustainability certainly isn’t out of the question. Since you’re not going to get paid for that potential, I think you just need to stand pat.

  1. In my 20-team, non-PPR league I’m a LeSean McCoy owner looking to sell.  After eight weeks, I’m 6-2, but need an infusion of young talent.  I have proposed a trade where I give McCoy and Chris Polk for Denard Robinson, Christine Michael and Justin Hunter. I’m know I’m tempting the Dynasty Gods here, but two potential starting running backs and an emerging receiver like Hunter seems like good value, especially since I’m desperate at receiver. Does this make sense? – Eric in OH

Following a rough start to his season, Eagles running back LeSean McCoy has turned it on in recent weeks. After dropping 149 yards in a dismantling of the division rival Giants, Shady put up nearly 100 total yards against a Cardinals defense that had previously only allowed 77 total rushing yards per contest, at a clip of 3.2 YPC against. Given the improving health of his offensive line, it’s fair to expect these types of efforts to continue – after all, McCoy is a proven stud who deserves the benefit of the doubt for his early-season struggles.

On your half of the deal is a wealth of upside. Jaguars running back Denard Robinson has put together back-to-back 100-yard efforts, looking every bit as explosive as he did in Michigan Stadium. Though he might not have the frame to sustain heavy volume, his efficiency could make up for it and help him achieve RB2 consideration.

Unfortunately, the proven talent at the position ends there. Seahawks ball carrier Christine Michael still hasn’t proven anything at the NFL level, and the Seattle coaches don’t seem to be in any rush to anoint him as the heir apparent. At this stage in the game, he’s nothing more than an expensive lottery ticket. Adding ascending receiver Justin Hunter does little to assuage my fears that you’re taking on too much unproven talent, since he also hasn’t come close to translating his physical gifts to the field.

Given that, I’d rather stand pat, or seek out a deal where you get a proven, reliable starter at receiver. Youth always sounds great in a dynasty setting, but giving up one of fantasy’s best running backs to get younger and fill positional holes is a good way of ensuring you’ll have to go through the same process again next year. Don’t sell McCoy short here – especially given the depth of your league, he should command a significantly higher premium.

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eric hardter