Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Eight

Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. We’ll pick one player from each team who we have our eye on and describe why their weekend performance is a key one for them in relation to their dynasty value.

Really Early Game

Detroit at Atlanta

One of the more confusing running back situations (and less publicized) is that of the Detroit Lions. Last week saw Joique Bell log 18 carries and Reggie Bush have five catches on six targets. This was a week after Theo Riddick had five catches (including one touchdown) and George Winn looked like a sleeper. Atlanta is one of the more favorable run defenses to play against, so productivity in this game may help clear up the depth chart going forward even with Bush likely out.

In the last four weeks, safety Kemal Ishmael has exceeded six solo tackles in every game and is now in the starting lineup. A seventh round pick in 2013, Ishmael has the looks of a value pick in IDP leagues that are tackle heavy. This should be a week that extends Ishmael’s streak to five and establishes him as a fixture in the Atlanta lineup for 2014.

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Early Games

Baltimore at Cincinnati

Baltimore seems intent on running Bernard Pierce out as a short yardage and goal line back. He has a touchdown in each of the last two weeks and while he is still averaging less than three yards per carry, Pierce is garnering about 30% of the workload. Cincinnati is fifth worst in average yards per carry against, so expect the Ravens to be run heavy.

While the Ravens are running, the Bengals would be smart to stick to the air. The Ravens have the highest receptions allowed to receivers, so Mohamed Sanu should be heavily involved for a third straight week. Who steps up in the second receiver role if A.J. Green is unable to go will be interesting to see develop. I would bet on Brandon Tate as a very desperate play if you want to gamble.

Chicago at New England

Jay Cutler is currently in the seasonal valley phase after a subpar game last week against Miami. Things are even harder this week as the Patriots are one of the toughest pass defenses and has Brandon Browner rounding back into shape. How Cutler responds to the challenge will show if he can load up the spaceship with rocket fuel or spiral further down to Earth.

Most dynasty owners knew Shane Vereen would be the first choice of the Patriots after Stevan Ridley’s season ending injury. What they (and I) didn’t know was that Jonas Gray would be the second back last week. Belichick’s ever-changing mind will be one to watch as the pecking order plays out.

Miami at Jacksonville

Mike Wallace may be the lead dog (dolphin?) in Miami, but Jarvis Landry is quickly becoming number two. He is averaging five targets a game and his playing time is steadily increasing. With steady hands (a 73% catch rate), Landry is the possession receiver to Wallace’s deep threat. Let’s see what he does this week.

While there is a glut at receiver in Jacksonville, Clay Harbor is quickly establishing himself as a surehanded tight end. With a high catch rate (91%) and 5.5 targets per game, Harbor has become the safety valve for a young quarterback in need. Miami is in the top half for sacks, so there may be some bail out passes coming to Clay.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay

After a nice start, Teddy Bridgewater has had some recent struggles, particularly against the pass rush. The Bucs, however, are not one of those teams as they rank in the bottom ten in sacks and has one of the most generous defenses against the pass. If he is unable to get it done here, the Vikings may need to reconsider their allegiance to Norv Turner.

He may not be able to play until November 2^nd, but Charles Sims is already putting pressure on this running back situation. With Sims now practicing, Doug Martin and Bobby Rainey are at risk of losing playing time to the young rookie. With Minnesota being among the worst run defenses, there is opportunity to stand out and create a foothold when Sims does hit the field.

Buffalo at New York Jets

Buffalo’s running back situation reminds me of high school prom. After the first few girls say no, you convince yourself the third and fourth choices are still “pretty cute.” Welcome to Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon. Brown has untapped potential, while Dixon has the experience to be effective for the Bills. Will one of them go all the way with the Bills on Sunday?

The trade of Percy Harvin should be a huge help to Geno Smith as he continues to progress in his second year. Playing opposite Eric Decker should open things up underneath for Harvin, who had been criminally underused in Seattle. We will see as the weeks progress how many snaps he gets (Rex Ryan is playing coy), but it should only go up from here.

Seattle at Carolina

On the other side of the Harvin trade, Russell Wilson has had to look for new weapons. An interesting one from last week was the emergence of Cooper Helfet. With his first significant action of the season, Helfet saw four targets, creating 61 yards on three catches while showing a little downfield burst. Luke Willson is on track to return, but Helfet may have carved a role in the offense nonetheless.

Looking towards the future, receivers need to emerge opposite Kelvin Benjamin. One young receiver who is slowly getting increased time is Brenton Bersin. The last two weeks were the first times he saw multiple targets on the season. His 6’3” frame gives Cam Newton another large target to work with and could push Jerricho Cotchery or Jason Avant to the slot exclusively. Could he emerge as a sleeper?

Houston at Tennessee

While the overall numbers look ok, Ryan Fitzpatrick is slowly losing his grip on the starting quarterback spot. Timely turnovers have cost the Texans in several games this year and sentiment for Ryan Mallett has increased. Tennessee is a decent test for Fitzpatrick to prove if he is the answer (for 2014, at least).

From one quarterback barely hanging on to another just getting a grip, Zach Mettenberger was confirmed as the starter for Sunday’s game. A rocket arm coupled with a new mustache, Mettenberger will try to be the gunslinger Jake Locker failed to become. I’m not sure if putting him against J.J. Watt in his first game is setting him up for success, but if he does well, it will look like genius.

St. Louis at Kansas City

For a second straight week, rookie Tre Mason is the player to watch for the Rams. After a breakout game against Seattle where he rumbled to 85 yards and a touchdown, Mason is in control for the time being. He won’t be involved in the passing game (leave that to Benny Cunningham), but we may have seen the ascension of a true workhorse back for the Rams.

Just a few weeks ago, Knile Davis was the hot name in fantasy. Now, he is getting roughly the same snaps (16 last week) as rookie De’Anthony Thomas (12). Davis is clearly a high level talent, but unless they decide to let Jamaal Charles rest a little more, he will be wasted on the bench. I’m hopeful he surpasses the 20 snap mark this week in a tough matchup, but I’m not holding my breath.

Afternoon Games

Oakland at Cleveland

Although Derek Carr is having a nice rookie season, he has surprisingly avoided a trait his brother had his entire career – taking sacks. Carr has only absorbed four sacks on over 200 dropbacks, the second best ratio behind only Drew Brees. That, along with only five interceptions, has helped him avoid bad plays and made him a young quarterback who is showing a level of maturity beyond most rookies.

Switching to a quarterback trying to hold off a rookie, Brian Hoyer had his worst start of the year last week. In fact, his three games where he has attempted the most passes (last week was 41, his highest), Hoyer has recorded his lowest QB ratings. Cleveland needs to lean on the running game to risk exposing Hoyer as more game manager and less game leader.

Philadelphia at Arizona

Among all the Larry Donnell and Travis Kelce talk, it seems Zach Ertz is quietly being overlooked. For a second year player on pace for over 50 catches on 80 targets with 800 yards and five touchdowns, you would think people would be talking more about him. I appreciate the consistency (only one game under 39 yards with two or more catches in every game) and a game against a weak defense against tight ends, I foresee his stock going up a tick after Sunday.

Last week, Stepfan Taylor had twice as many carries (12) than the rest of the season combined (six). Taylor is a plodding back who has a hard time creating opportunities when nothing is there. Meanwhile, Marion Grice has received a few first team reps and is getting more comfortable with the playbook. I suspect Grice to get activated for games sooner than later, while Taylor remains a three to five carry back behind Andre Ellington.

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh

The news of Reggie Wayne’s injury status is unfortunate, but may present an opportunity for talented rookie Donte Moncrief to earn some game action. Much like John Stamos, Moncrief is a man crush of mine that I am unashamed to admit. The shell of Hakeem Nicks has already seen decreased playing time the last few weeks, so the coaching staff may be coming to their senses and this week could be where Moncrief drives up his value.

From one rookie wide receiver to another, Martavis Bryant made his first appearance last week and broke the hearts of many Markus Wheaton owners. While his numbers were good (two catches on five targets for 40 yards and a touchdown), more telling was the 24 snaps, second behind Antonio Brown. Ben Roethlisberger has always liked tall receivers and with Bryant being the only one over six feet who can catch (sorry Darrius Heyward-Bey), this may be a trend and not just a dot on the radar.

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay at New Orleans

Normally, I try not to talk about elite players unless there is concern, but it is hard not to marvel at Aaron Rodgers’ season. His 18:1 touchdown to interception ratio is by far the best in the league (Peyton Manning is second at a little over 7:1) and Rodgers does this despite attempting fewer overall passes than Geno Smith (who has just seven passing touchdowns). Did I mention he has only been sacked twice and hit while throwing just once? It’s hard to say how the skill players would do in other offenses but he is authoring another brilliant season and this is a game where he can showcase himself as the best quarterback in the NFL.

Because I love numbers, let’s take a look at Brandin Cooks’ target numbers by week: 8, 5, 10, 5, 11, 3. Well of course that means that he will see at least eight targets against the Packers. As bad as the logic is, it may very well be the case if the Packers jump out to a lead similar to their game against Carolina. Oh, and in those games he had eight or more targets… eight catches for 70 yards is the average output.

Monday Night Game

Washington at Dallas

With news the quarterback may be Colt McCoy, I am not sure if I want any part of this offense. I know he did well in relief last week (11 for 12, 128 yards and a touchdown), but I am not buying the Dallas defense letting McCoy be as comfortable as he was against Tennessee. Somehow, if Robert Griffin III is cleared to start, I would be willing to take a flyer on DeSean Jackson scoring a deep touchdown.

It’s hard not to watch DeMarco Murray but the Washington defense is a top run unit and no so good against the pass. With that said, I will look to Terrance Williams against a group of cornerbacks allowing a quarterback rating over 100. Dez Bryant will undoubtedly get his, but Williams has been a boom or bust receiver (only two starts with over two catches but five games with at least one touchdown) and this is a great boom matchup.

Good luck this weekend!

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