Five Burning Questions
Do you feel a burning sensation?
No, you don’t need to see the urologist (I hope), It’s just little ole’ me with this week’s edition of Five Burning Questions. In hopes of clearing up the current quagmire (giggity) at the position, we are going running back-centric this time around. It probably won’t help, but by the time you figure that out I’ll be counting my money and riding off into the sunset.
1.) What is happening at running back?
After sitting down this past week to revamp my running back rankings, I realized it was an exercise more pointless than telling my wife how she looks in that dress. After the top six or so guys, there is a black hole enveloping the next 15. Throwing darts doesn’t even begin to explain it.
In search of answers, I went to the local library and did some reading. After hours of intensive research, I learned that sometime around the turn of the 18th century a philosopher named Billwig Von Belichick was contemplating the future of sport when he said, “There fhall be a great upheaval for those who runneth thine ball of pig in thy thirty-seventh year of thy Brady.” Two immediate thoughts came to mind:
A.) Why was a Germanic philosopher replacing s’s with f’s when that is an English thing?
B.) Where did I set that issue of Ranger Rick I was reading earlier?
With that in mind, I formulated a few plans you could follow to help with the running back disaster. Depending on where you are with your roster, you have options:
A.) Looking towards 2015 or beyond? Take the volume approach. Stock up on as many talented players as you can, even if they are slumping, stuck behind another player, or yet to break out. If all else fails, bet on talent.
B.) Looking to win now? Pay up for the premium options. There are still a handful of backs you can count on to post big numbers. They will be as expensive as ever, but if you are in need, it might be worth it. I’d also be a little more willing to make a move for an older back. Because of the mess at the position, their short term production has an increased value.
C.) Just want to get by? It may feel gross to rely on Darren McFadden or Trent Richardson, but they are cheap and (gasp!) reliable. In an era of constant turnover at the position, that quality shouldn’t be underrated.
2.) Wait a second, did you call Darren McFadden and Trent Richardson reliable?
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Yes, and I figuratively stand by it. (I am going to start using figuratively in a superfluous way, just like people do with literally.)
Coming into this week, Richardson is the RB15, having scored at least 8.1 PPR points in every game this season. About half of the running backs in front of him can’t make that claim. What’s more, he has topped 4.0 YPC three times in five games, matching his career best stretch going back to Weeks 5-9, 2012.
Richardson catches a ton of heat, perhaps more than any other single player in fantasy. If you are still looking at him as a guy people were taking as the top overall pick in 2013 dynasty drafts, that is a mistake. Instead, look at his current situation, where he is a solid, still uninspiring RB2 who is probably playing better now than at any point in his NFL career. The upside is likely capped, but take him for what he is and enjoy it.
Our other subject, Mr. McFadden, is the RB27 in PPR leagues. He could be higher, as his PPG average puts him at 18th, but the Raiders have had their bye already. The consistency has been there, with the former Razorback topping 10 PPR PPG in five straight outings. He is also catching passes, logging four receptions in three of his last four games. He is on pace to haul in a respectable 45 balls.
Where will McFadden be in a year? Who knows? Right now, all we care about is he is very cheap to acquire and could be either a key depth add or a sneakily solid starter for your squad.
3.) Can Denard Robinson have an impact in dynasty leagues?
I don’t think so.
There are a handful of reasons for my pessimism, chiefly his size, pass game chops and the Jags roster as a whole. Weighing in under 200 pounds, I have serious concerns the lithe running back can hold up to a workload big enough to help owners. If he was 5’7” instead of 5’10”, I’d be more comfortable, but I’m not sure he is thick enough to absorb the pounding.
Being so new to the position, Robinson can struggle in pass protection. His size is an issue here as well. A player you’d expect to contribute as a pass catcher will struggle to add much as long as Jordan Todman or Toby Gerhart are taking those snaps.
The biggest obstacle may be his Jacksonville teammates. Between the awful offensive line and poor defense, his upside is severely limited. What happens next season is anybody’s guess, but in a draft loaded to the gills with running backs, I can’t imagine the Jags walking away without one.
If I could get a second, or maybe third round pick for Robinson, I’d jump on it. The time to sell is now, as two of the next three games (Miami and Dallas) are going to be very tough sledding.
4.) Is Montee Ball getting his job back?
No. At least not in the capacity he had it pre-injury.
Ronnie Hillman has done what Ball couldn’t – be effective. Given that fact, I can’t really see any way he ends up as second fiddle. Ball should see his share of time behind Peyton Manning, but the RB1 level season many of us (myself included) predicted isn’t going to happen.
Ball was never the most talented player, earning the rank he did (I had him around 11-14) based on the offense he was in. With Manning aging and Ball seemingly about to be in a timeshare, I see his long-term outlook as somewhat dim. If I ever sort my rankings, I’d expect him to drop into the high teens, or worse.
5.) Can you name a player I can get on the cheap who could make a big impact in 2014?
Stevan Ridley.
Sometime in February, Ridley could be free of Mr. Angry Pants, Bill Belichick. I’m having a hard time seeing him back in New England for myriad reasons, and if I’m right, he could be in for a very nice 2015.
While not the most talented back in the NFL, Ridley is certainly good enough to post low-end RB1 numbers as the lead running back on a team in need. Averaging 4.3 YPC for his career and capable of being a very good short yardage back, the 25-year-old will have plenty of suitors.
The mess at the position may be bad for us owners, but it will be a big help to a player like Ridley. I’m looking to buy in as many leagues as I can.
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