Daily Optimized Lineups: Week Eight

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As part of that experience, we at DLF felt it might be of particular interest to our readers to provide them with an optimized lineup that they should be able to plug into a Head to Head or 50/50 game and fully expect to win some money.

Anyone who thought that knowing a decent amount about fantasy football, dynasty specifically, would be more than enough to sail you through to money in the daily format clearly hasn’t been paying attention. I consider myself very well versed in dynasty and even redraft, I’ve written full articles on and developed strategies for auction drafting and I know a lot of the players very well from my scouting exploits but none of this prepares you from the daily format. Now, I never thought it would but I’ve seen many people lose their minds at their inability to get over on this format. I’ve been playing daily for somewhere between three and four years now. The format has grown immensely and the strategies to gain an advantage in the format have grown just as fast. However, more often than not it all comes down to dumb luck. With that in mind, we attempt to break out our own four leaf clover as we move on to week eight!

Quarterback – Carson Palmer – $7,400

I don’t think we’ve featured Carson Palmer in this column all season. It’s somewhat understandable between the injury and rush friendly matchups, though. However, this week Palmer faces the nearly non-existent Philadelphia Eagles defense. The Eagles are giving up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season due in large part to being the third most scored on defense through the air with an average of 2.2 touchdowns being scored by the pass each game. Arizona, meanwhile, has the ninth highest passing percentage over the past three games and their yards per completions are going for the seventh most in the NFL at 11.4 yards per completion this season. Palmer should have a very nice game for a very affordable $7,400 and will allow us to add some higher end pieces throughout the rest of our lineup.

Projected Stat Line – 27 completions for 302 yards and two touchdowns

Follow-Up – Ben Roethlisberger ($7,500) – Roethlisberger had a nice matchup on Monday night versus a Houston team that, on paper, had no way to defend against his top weapon, Antonio Brown. For his price Roethlisberger did fine with a price per point of $444. This price would have dropped even more if not for a controversial call overturning a touchdown thrown to Brown in the fourth quarter. The call was questionable given the fact that there wasn’t really definitive proof to overturn the call. Had the call stood, Roethlisberger’s dollars per point would have dropped to $357.

Running Back – Marshawn Lynch – $8,500

[inlinead]Can Marshawn Lynch go “Beast Mode” this week? I believe he can. There are a few reason for this. First, Carolina is far from the defense they were just a year ago. The Panthers are giving up roughly 138 rushing yards per game this season – seventh most in the NFL. Meanwhile, Seattle is gaining the second most rushing yards per game in the NFL thus far this season. Additionally, the Seahawks are scoring the second most rushing touchdowns per game in the NFL while Carolina is giving up the third most rushing touchdowns per game. Between the rushing yards, a few receptions for good measure and the high likelihood of a rushing touchdown Lynch should hit his value fairly easily.

Projected Stat Line – 22 rushes for 80 yards and one touchdown, four receptions for 36 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Follow-Up – DeMarco Murray ($9400) – It’s so tough to bet against DeMarco Murray this season. His price tag tends to be fairly high, but his production has been incredible. Last week, Murray’s price per point came in at $477, which is a hair lower than projected but not enough to hurt a 50/50 lineup in any way. Once again, Murray’s production provides the security to allow owners to set it and forget it while looking for high upside bargains elsewhere in the lineup.

Running Back – Jerick McKinnon – $5,800

You don’t know how good it makes me feel to be able to suggest McKinnon. While Matt Asiata was the starting running back in Minnesota, I had to consistently grit my teeth when I’d hear another daily expert suggest him. In my opinion, he just isn’t good. He’s about as touchdown dependent a player as I’ve ever seen and yet, inexplicably, he’d be able to somehow get on per game without fail. What’s worse, is he’d somehow usually get more than one whenever he’d score which would make him look like he was somehow good. However, in actuality Asiata would just get lucky. Now, finally, it appears as if his luck has run out and the much more talented McKinnon has taken over – something that should have happened weeks ago.

McKinnon has great vision, runs with quickness and conviction and can catch the ball well out of the backfield. This week, he will be going up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whose rush defense doesn’t get talked about much, so people assume it’s at the very least decent. Well, it’s not. The Buccaneers have given up 131 rushing yards per game over the past three games and have allowed the second most rushing touchdowns per game this season in the NFL with 1.2 allowed per game. Look for McKinnon to have a lot of opportunities and significantly outperform his price tag this week.

Projected Stat Line – 20 rushes for 110 yards and two touchdowns, four receptions for 25 yards

Follow-Up – Justin Forsett ($6200) – If you heard a scream echo across the countryside on Sunday it was probably Justin Forsett owners crying out in pain when Bernard Pierce came in and vultured a touchdown from him. Nonetheless, Forsett hit a dollar per point tag of $653 dollars, which isn’t horrible, but definitely misses the mark that we were aiming for. Oh, and that touchdown, it would have dropped his dollars per point down to a very cool $400 price tag. Darn you Pierce!

Wide Receiver – Dez Bryant – $8,800

Why am I suggesting Dez Bryant? Well, he’s Dez Bryant first off. Second, his opponent, the Washington Redskins, are allowing the fourth most passing touchdowns per game this season in the NFL with an average of a little over two touchdowns surrendered per game. On the flip side, Dallas is scoring an average of two touchdowns per game through the air this season, ranking fifth in the NFL. Bryant has been a big reason for that with four of those touchdowns coming to him. Additionally, while the Cowboys had started out the season lacking in the passing department, they seem to have started to put it together in recent weeks with 274 yards being collected per game on average over the past three games ranking it fifth in the NFL. Finally, it’s Dallas versus Washington on Monday Night Football and Dez just loves to shine under the lights.

Projected Stat Line – Seven receptions for 105 yards and one touchdowns

Follow-Up – Antonio Brown ($9,000) – As I alluded to earlier, Brown would have had a much better night if not for an indefensible call by the referees last week. As it stood, Brown’s dollars per point came in at $511. With the touchdown robbed from him, he would have come all the way down to around $375 dollars per point. Unfortunately, the referees tend to hurt me more than players do most weeks.

Wide Receiver – Jeremy Maclin – $8,000

Jeremy Maclin has been doing quite well following his injury last season and has many Philadelphia fans asking, “DeSean who?” This week the Eagles will be taking on the tough Arizona Cardinals. Much like the Panthers, though, this year’s Cardinals defense isn’t quite what it was last season. They are currently giving up the fourth most fantasy points to wide receivers and are giving up on average two passing touchdowns per game over the past three games – this places them fifth highest in the NFL. Furthermore, the Cardinals are just leaking yardage through the air with 325 yards being thrown on them per game over the past three games. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is currently ranked as the seventh most prolific passing team this season with 262 passing yards being thrown per game. I expect Maclin to have a very nice outing and to keep the fans in Philadelphia asking, “DeSean Who?”

Projected Stat Line – Five receptions for 95 yards and one touchdown

Follow-Up – Andre Holmes ($6000) – Well this just didn’t work out how I saw it, there are no two ways around it. Holmes was more of a momentum play and he had a great matchup in Arizona but the Raiders are the Raiders after all. His 4.9 point total meant that we spent roughly $1,225 dollars per point. His production absolutely hurt a lineup that otherwise performed fairly well.

Wide Receiver – Doug Baldwin – $6,800

This is almost a cardinal sin of daily lineup construction, starting a running back on the same team as one of your receivers, but this play has the makings of being able to work for us nonetheless. With Percy Harvin out of town, Baldwin is about as good as a receiver as they have on the roster. They have some nice pieces coming up behind him, but many of them are very young and inexperienced. The logic here is that Seattle will need to pass the ball and Russell Wilson’s relationship with Baldwin is well established. Carolina has given up the eighth most passing yards per game in the NFL over the past three games with 274.3 yards given up per game. While Seattle isn’t really destroying the league in passing, Baldwin does get a lion’s share of the action they do conduct, garnering 20% of the team’s receptions and 25% of its receiving yards. With Harvin out of Seattle, look for those numbers to grow and his role to increase.

Projected Stat Line – Five receptions for 80 yards

Follow-Up – Odell Beckham Jr. ($6200) – Well, Odell Beckham Jr. stepped up as expected and performed well enough to live up to his value for us last week. His two touchdowns were an incredible surprise to many and ultimately helped make up for Holmes’ lack of production last week. If he wasn’t on a bye this week, I’d consider plugging him in again as I expect the Giants to feature him more and more down the stretch.

Tight End – Delanie Walker – $5,600

Delanie Walker started off really strong this season and was actually leading all tight ends in many statistical categories early in the season. As of late his production has definitely fallen off but he has a new quarterback throwing him the ball in Zach Mettenberger and I fully expect him to take advantage of the change in Tennessee. Let’s face it Charlie Whitehurst just isn’t a good quarterback, he just isn’t. Mettenberger can at least stretch the field and hit receiver in stride moving away from him. This should allow Walker some additional flexibility in the targets he sees going forward. This week however he faces off against a Houston defense that is a bit tougher than we’d like to see. However Walker’s price tag makes the decision easier as he allows us to upgrade in several other areas while crossing our fingers on renewed production from him. I like the bet and actually think he will find his way into the end zone at the very least as young quarterbacks do love to target tight ends until they start to get comfortable in the captain’s chair.

Follow-Up – Antonio Gates ($6400) – Good old dependable Gates. While he didn’t really rip up the box score he did find the end zone which, at the very least, helped save his value for us. Having only caught three receptions that touchdown was crucial for us as it made him at startable. If not for that touchdown last week’s lineup was going to have a hard time in many games.

Kicker – Patrick Murray – $4,600

Kicker is, of course, another position where we tend to scrimp on so we can get higher end production elsewhere in the lineup. This week, in order for the lineup above to work, I had to go with the cheapest viable kicker on the list. I’m not looking for miracles against Minnesota, but the opportunity to score is at the very least there. He has shown the ability to hit from distance as well with a 55 yards against the Saints a few weeks back.

Projected Stat Line – Three field goals, two extra points

Follow-Up – Shaun Suisham ($4,600) – Finally a kicker that did something for us last week. The downside is that part of his points came at the sacrifice of Antonio Brown’s touchdown. Shaun Suisham scored us 14 points off of his $4600 dollar price tag which brought him in at a very respectable $329 dollars per point, the best of any kicker we’ve rostered this season.

Defense – New York Jets – $4,500

As with the kicker I don’t tend to spend too much on defenses as a rule. Some weeks I’ll splurge a bit but this week isn’t one of them. I think we could see some good value this week from the Jets against a Buffalo rush game that has a whole host of question marks. If the Jets can shut down the Bills new running back pieces they can significantly apply pressure on the Bills to pass. Once they can do that then the Jets could really start to see some points added through sacks and interceptions. Finally, with a price tag of just $4500 dollars they free up so much money elsewhere and as I said before, allow us to stock up on the skill players.

Projected Stat Line – 13 points against, four sacks and two interceptions

Follow-Up – Pittsburgh Steelers ($4800) – The Steelers just didn’t do much for us last week giving up 23 points to the Texans and only managing one interception and one sack. Despite giving us minimal points you rarely depend on your defense in the strategy I employ. This is all due to their high variance in point totals week to week. Depending on this position to deliver you a win is just not one I’d like to sweat out week to week.

Just as last week we now present to you an additional lineup from George Kritikos so that you may compare and contrast styles and maybe even find some additional values I wasn’t able to feature in my write up:

Quarterback – Carson Palmer – $7,400

Ryan and I seem to agree on this one as Palmer represents a great value and has a juicy matchup against Philadelphia. They are allowing over 250 yards per game to quarterbacks and with a decimated Arizona [inlinead]defense, the Cardinals only way to win is by scoring touchdowns and lots of them. Palmer has put up over 18 points per game in Fanduel this season and should be able to top that here. The only risk here is Palmer’s arm issues, but all reports suggest that this is an affliction that is improving each week.

Projected Stat Line – 24 completions, 280 yards, three touchdowns

Follow-Up – Brian Hoyer ($6400) – Sometimes you have to own up to a major miss and Hoyer is the definition of this. A great matchup and a relatively consistent stat line proved fool’s gold as he sputtered to 215 yards and an interception (zero touchdowns). While he did afford the opportunity to load up at other positions, even at this price, more was expected here.

Running Back – Le’Veon Bell – $8,400

The matchup with Indianapolis is deceiving. They look like a stellar defense as their rushing yards allowed are deflated by a lack of total attempts. Dig a little deeper and you see a 4.5 yards per carry allowed, one rushing touchdown per game allowed, and the third highest receiving yards allowed to running backs. Even if the Colts find a way to build up a lead here, Bell is versatile enough to be a contributor as a receiver to make up for any lost rushing yards.

Projected Stat Line – 16 rushes, 85 yards, six catches, 50 yards, one touchdown

Follow-Up – Matt Forte ($9,300) – When you put up this kind of money for a player, you expect a great return. Forte did not disappoint. His 109 total yards with six catches and two total touchdowns again displayed his versatility. Very few players are matchup proof, but Forte has scored a touchdown and surpassed 100 total yards in each of his last three games.

Running Back – Jerrick McKinnon – $5,800

Another position where Ryan and I agree upon, McKinnon is a tremendous value this week and is extremely hard not to put in your lineup. The touchdowns have not come yet, but with 80 or more yards in three of the last four games, he should start seeing some trips to the end zone. The Bucs have allowed nearly 1,000 total yards to running backs in just six games (about 160 yards per game) so they are susceptible to runners like McKinnon who are capable of piling up the yardage. He should have another versatile game and visit the painted area for the first time this season.

Projected Stat Line – 17 rushes, 105 yards, three catches, 30 yards, one touchdown

Follow-Up – Justin Forsett ($6200) – Forsett had a good game with 95 rushing yards but failed to record a catch for the second week in a row. The fact he had no receiving yards or touchdowns against Atlanta, the team that has allowed the most of each, was a little disappointing. It was a mild overspend in retrospect but not the type that will break your team. As Ryan mentioned, darn you Pierce!

Wide Receiver – Mike Wallace – $7,500

Wallace has discovered a new sense of reliability as he has at least five receptions and/or a touchdown in every game this season. That dependability makes him a good value against a Jaguars defense that has given up the most yards to wide receivers and the third most receptions as well. Ryan Tannehill has put a lot of trust in Wallace and it shows with 20 more targets than any other receiver and Wallace’s five touchdowns, three more than all other Dolphins wide receivers combined. He should have another productive game here.

Projected Stat Line – Six catches, 85 yards, one touchdown

Follow-Up – Alshon Jeffery ($7900) – After four straight games of 100 receiving yards and/or a touchdown, Jeffery collapsed against Miami as he managed just two catches for nine yards. He was still targeted well (seven overall) but was just unable to get going in a game where the entire Bears passing offense failed to show up. I consider this a blip on what has been a good season so you have to sometimes take these duds when paying big on a player.

Wide Receiver – Randall Cobb – $8,400

No one would have guessed Cobb would be leading the league in receiving touchdowns at any point in the NFL season. With eight so far (and a score in all but one game this season), he has become a player with a very reliable floor for production. I want a piece of the game with the highest over/under and Cobb is priced at fair market value. Add in a defense that has allowed 1.5 touchdowns per game to wide receivers (and over 200 yards) and we have a matchup that should be very beneficial to the young speedster.

Projected Stat Line – Seven catches, 105 yards, one touchdown

Follow-up – Randall Cobb ($8,200) – What can I say? He produced last week to the tune of six catches, 121 yards, and one touchdown. How could I not get him for a second week in a row? He looked great in a rout against Carolina, exploiting a soft secondary underneath while also grabbing a season long 47 yard reception. Aaron Rodgers has been an efficient machine and Cobb is benefiting, no reason to expect this to change.

Wide Receiver – Sammy Watkins – $7,300

Outside of a trip to Revis Island, Watkins has looked terrific since Kyle Orton took the helm of the Bills’ passing game. He has been targeted eight or more times all but twice this year and has his two highest counts (12 and 14) in games where Orton has started. Against the Jets, he faces a secondary that has allowed 14 passing touchdowns against just one interception. Watkins should have ample opportunity to out-run and out-jump his defender.

Projected Stat Line – Seven catches, 95 yards, one touchdown

Follow-Up – Roddy White ($6,700) – I expected a good game from White, but he outperformed my prediction while garnering lots of attention from Matt Ryan. On a season high 15 targets, he recorded nine catches for 100 yards (his first of the season) and a touchdown. My thought was Jimmy Smith would be locked on to Julio Jones and White would be free to pick on Lardarius Webb all game. While there was some of that, he thrived regardless of who Baltimore put against him. White showed he still has something left in the tank and can be valuable when the price and matchup are just right.

Tight End – Jordan Reed – $5,200

Even with Niles Paul healthy, Reed looks like the player to own here in an offense that likes to pass to the tight end (and his price even went down). While he hasn’t crossed the goal line yet, he has two games of five or more catches for fifty or more yards, showing his placement in the offense. Regardless of who starts at quarterback, Reed has a nice matchup against a Dallas defense that has allowed the second most yards and touchdowns to tight ends this season. Washington will need to keep up here so I expect a fair amount of passing and Reed to be well worth his moderate price tag.

Projected Stat Line – Six catches, 70 yards

Follow-Up – Jordan Reed ($5400) – He was a nice option last week to allow me to afford other elite players. Reed had five catches for 54 yards in what was a good return for a tight end outside the top five. The upheaval at quarterback did not help his cause here in what was an unexpected disruption. Still, he may have fallen a bit short of prediction but was not a total zero.

Kicker – Randy Bullock – $4,700

I don’t overthink kickers and Bullock was a cheap option with potential. He has three double digit scoring games so far and is playing a team that has allowed 2.5 field goals and two extra points per game. That’s good enough for me.

Projected Stat Line – Three field goals, one extra point

Follow-Up – Caleb Sturgis ($4,900) – While the stats at the end of the game were fine (two field goals, three extra points), Sturgis missed a 50-yard field goal and had another blocked. The potential for a huge game was there but Sturgis was unable to capitalize. That’s what you get for a low priced kicker so you have to accept that.

Defense – Buffalo – $5,300

Buffalo leads the NFL in sacks and is top five with eight interceptions playing against Geno Smith. The Jets have allowed more sacks than all but six teams and their seven interceptions are tied for fifth worst. This is all set for a turnover fest where Buffalo will be able to hold the Jets under 20 points (the Jets have only surpassed 20 points twice this year). I don’t normally pay much for defense but this seems like a good value in a week where I was not a fan of many of the lower priced options.

Projected Stat Line – 14 points allowed, five sacks, two interceptions

Follow-Up – Buffalo ($4900) – Yes, I repeated another pick from last week (my third). Sometimes, you find players with multiple favorable matchups. After Minnesota was pummeled two weeks ago, I went after them last week with Buffalo. Five sacks and two interceptions later (with only 16 points allowed) and we had a solid performance from a low priced defense.

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