Players I Missed
We need to talk.
Look, I know you come to me looking for fantasy advice. And I know a relationship like that has to be based on a foundation of trust. You trust that I’m doing my homework, studying numbers, tape, and myriad other sources to give you the biggest possible edge. While I haven’t betrayed you in this regard, I do have something I need to say – sometimes I am wrong.
I know this is a lot to take in, so please let me explain. As hard as it is to believe, those of us here are DLF aren’t perfect. Sometimes we just plain miss. Because of this, I’ve come up with the mantra “Trust the process, not the results.”
That saying is something I brought over from my past life in the poker industry. It is derivative of the oft repeated, “Don’t be results oriented.” In a business where the results are measured in real world dollars, ignoring them can be impossibly difficult. But because poker is chock full of variance, if you get hung up on short term results, you’ll end up broke, insane or both. The same applies to fantasy football, especially dynasty leagues.
Our game is highly volatile and filled with an incredible amount of short term variance. Because of this, we all end up with egg on our face. A lot. But if we keep doing things the right way, in the long term it will work itself out.
Trust the process.
Part of the process is admitting when you are wrong, finding out why you were wrong and figuring out how to be wrong less in the future. With that in mind, I am going to go over a few of my biggest misses this season, explaining why I missed and what to expect going forward. I’ve left out obvious names like Drew Brees and Eddie Lacy since most folks bricked with them. Instead, I’ll discuss a few of the pet players I ended rostering in numerous leagues.
Torrey Smith, WR, BAL
All the signs for a breakout were there:
- Three consecutive seasons of improved fantasy output (180, 183.4, 201.8 PPR points)
- Presumed starting spot at the X in an offense that has traditionally helped that receiver explode
- Improved offensive line and by proxy, running game
- Return of possession guru Dennis Pitta
Yet here we are, six weeks in and Smith is on pace for career lows in targets (91), receptions (40), yards (605), and yards per reception (15.1). With three touchdowns in the last three games (on only nine receptions), at least he is helping the Ravens win games.
Coming into the season I had Smith in my top-20 dynasty receivers, pacing DLF’s rankers with confidence. Then Steve Smith Sr. happened. And boy did he. I don’t think I need to get too far into what the ageless wonder has done and the impact it has had on Torrey. Besides, I cry profusely every time I do, so let’s move on.
Aside from Smith Sr. wrecking my hopes and dreams, there have been other issues. Offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak has been using Smith in low percentage routes, not dissimilar from his rookie and sophomore seasons. This has led Smith to the fourth worst catch percentage in the NFL among the 105 players with at least 25 targets. His drop percentage rank of eight worst isn’t much better. The loss of Pitta and a mix-and-match run game haven’t exactly propped Torrey’s value up either.
Despite all this, I’m still buying. The offense is rounding in to form, quarterback Joe Flacco appears headed to a career season statistically and Smith Sr. is 35. It may be stubbornness, but I refuse to believe Torrey’s horrid start is a sign of permanent regression. In my latest rankings update (out October 15th), Smith dropped only a few spots to 23rd.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, DEN
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This is one I missed the opposite direction. I had him ranked just ahead of Wes Welker in the low 40’s. As Eric Decker has shown when healthy this year (his pace in those games would have made him the WR15 last year), Peyton Manning isn’t the only person responsible for big wide receiver numbers in Denver. It takes two and Sanders is more than holding up his end of the bargain.
My reasoning behind the low ranking was simple – I didn’t think Sanders had the size or skill to thrive in Denver. I thought we’d see Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas pick up most of the slack from Decker’s absence. I also correctly predicted a pretty significant regression from Manning in terms of fantasy numbers. This has borne out in the form of a near 12% drop in fantasy points from the future hall of famer.
While touchdowns have eluded the first year Bronco, nothing else has. His Antonio Brown-lite pace for receptions and yards has been remarkable. And, really, I don’t see a reason this slows. Defenses have to concentrate on the Thomas’s, Wes Welker appears to be pretty much cooked and it isn’t like the running game has been taking many touches away.
The big question is what happens post-Peyton? My feeling is Sanders has top-25 upside even then. There is no reason he can’t do what Golden Tate is doing, and he is my 25th ranked WR. We do want to keep in mind Sanders turns 28 in March and small receivers traditionally don’t fare as well in their 30’s as more physical receivers do.
Victor Cruz, WR, NYG
Maybe I should have seen the signs on this one. I guess I was too intoxicated by past success, as Cruz is only three years removed from a top-three season. Heck, he was the WR13 two years ago. I looked at 2013 as an aberration sabotaged by the prince of the funny face, Eli Manning.
I was also encouraged by the relatively small amount of wear on Cruz’ tires. Despite being 27, he had only three full seasons as an NFL starter. And I haven’t even mentioned a super slot friendly offense brought in by new coordinator Ben McAdoo.
All this led me to ranking Cruz as a high end WR2. Whoops.
Remember a bit back when we talked about Torrey Smith’s drop percentage? I’ll give you one guess who the league leader is. With six drops and only 23 receptions, Cruz leads a very undistinguished list. Aside from his personal on-field struggles, the Giants’ offense as a whole had issues early. The slow start for the entire passing game didn’t do Cruz any favors.
Despite these struggles, Cruz did have consecutive 100 yard outings Weeks 3 and 4. I was hopeful this was a sign of things to come right up until the knee injury against the rival Eagles. So now I am left holding the bag, wondering where I went wrong.
Because he is still young enough, will be back in an offense where he is a key cog, and is the type of player to use this season and the injury as motivation, I see Cruz as an excellent buy-low opportunity. Find a way to stash him for next year and reap the rewards from the comeback.
C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo
I’m going to make this one short and sweet. The Buffalo Bills coaching staff should be arrested for their use of Spiller. They continue to run him between the tackles at a maddening rate, seemingly oblivious to his speed and open field ability. I actually sat down to watch some film on Spiller and, no joke, after about 20 minutes I had to turn it off.
I had Spiller as my RB8 coming in to this year, which proved to be a massive miscalculation. He will likely be dropping 1 tenr more spots in my update that will be out by the time you read this. An impending free agent, if he ends up somewhere like Detroit, he’ll move back up. But at 27 years old, time is running out.
The Other Misses
Greg Jennings, WR, MIN – I touted him as having WR2 upside. This was based on his 2013 success in games Matt Cassel played (14th ranked WR) and the hiring of Norv Turner. Cassel’s ineffectiveness and the subsequent quarterback carousel along with Adrian Peterson’s indiscretions put an end to my prediction.
I think Jennings has a shot to contribute once rookie Teddy Bridgewater settles in, but I’m not exactly counting on it.
Roddy White, WR, ATL – Hobbled by injury for a brief time, Roddy has been ineffective even when healthy. Another victim of butter fingers with a third highest in the league five drops, White just hasn’t been able to put it together.
I had White in the high 20’s of my dynasty ranks and considered him a borderline WR1 this season. I still believe he will find his way into WR2 numbers for the remainder of 2014, but it would appear the inevitable age-based decline is in effect.
Zac Stacy, RB, STL – Stacy reminds me of Kirk Cameron from Growing Pains. He started out as an unknown, rose to prominence and then ended up back in obscurity. Picked in the fifth round of the draft and buried on the depth chart last season, nobody expected much. But once the door opened, Stacy exploded on to the scene. While Cameron was the cool older brother, dating the pretty girls, Stacy was carrying owners to fantasy titles.
As with Growing Pains, Stacy is going to get canceled for a sexier, hipper option (Tre Mason or Benny Cunningham in this case). Such is the cycle of a child star/mediocre RB.
I had Stacy as a top-12 running back. Considering he may be a third stringer in a month, that was probably a mistake. Still, I can’t help but wonder if Bradford were healthy and the defense did what many thought they would, if this story wouldn’t have ended differently.
Also, I miss Joanna Kerns.
So, who did YOU miss on this season. Post your comments below!
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