The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1. In a non-PPR league, is it time to give up on Tavon Austin? My league only has eight bench spots and I could use the roster space. – David in DE
Despite being the first skill position player selected in the 2013 NFL Draft, Rams receiver Tavon Austin is already viewed as somewhat of a dynasty punch line. Billed as a dynamic run-after-the-catch threat, Austin resembled nothing of the sort last year, struggling to corral passes and typically failing to break tackles. He showed better in both the run and return games, but ultimately was unable to produce any sort of sustained fantasy prowess.
With that said, it’s also fair to assert Austin was, at least in part, a product of his environment. Last year I created and detailed the AIR (adjusted improvement ratio) metric, which helps describe how well a player performed within the scope of his own offense. The logic was simple – not all passing games were created equal, and quarterback play needed to be accounted for.
A few months later I proceeded to utilize the AIR metric to detail the 2013 rookie pass catchers, and the results were somewhat startling. Austin’s AIR value of 1.01, while simply average, at the very least suggested he performed to the expectations (and constraints) of his offense, which is truthfully no small feat as a rookie. Even more interesting was his place in the rookie hierarchy – though he was well behind elite performers like Keenan Allen, Kenny Stills and Terrance Williams, he was roughly level with “hype train” conductors DeAndre Hopkins and Cordarrelle Patterson (AIR = 1.02 for both). This doesn’t mean Austin’s career will ultimately be linked to that of his significantly pricier cohorts, but it goes to show the potential is there.
And to that point, prior to this season many (myself included) would have given up on third-year Rams receiver Brian Quick, who has now turned into a reliable weekly option. Sometimes, quite simply, these guys just need time to develop. Austin might not have shown what we expected just yet, but it’s still early in his career.
Given that, I’d try to hang onto him if you can, at least through the end of the year. He might not ever be a fit for coordinator Brian Schottenheimer’s vanilla offense, but he remains a youthful option with potential. The non-PPR format definitively lessens his value so I won’t blame you for cutting bait, but I’d rather stash him if you can find a way to do so.
2. I have a team that is built to contend this season and hopefully for the next couple of seasons as well. Do you consider Drew Brees to be an upgrade over Matt Stafford at this point? The offer being discussed would involve me moving Stafford and a future second round pick for Brees and a future 1st round pick. – Jeff in NJ
In an oft-variable landscape, Saints quarterback Drew Brees has been the model of consistency. Since moving to the Big Easy in 2006, Brees has never finished lower than the seasonal QB3, while finishing as the overall QB1 thrice. Quite literally, no other skill position player can lay claim to that type of dominance.
According to a study from earlier this year by our own Ryan McDowell, Brees’ exemplary scoring ability unsurprisingly translates to a weekly basis as well. Using data from 2011-2013, Ryan found 77% of Brees’ starts were quality starts (defined as greater than the average of QB1-level starts, which was calculated to be 21.1 fantasy points), a figure that trailed only Peyton Manning (78%). Even more elucidating was Brees’ proportion of elite starts (defined by Ryan as finishing as a top-two weekly scorer at the position, calculated to be 33.5 fantasy points or higher), which checked in at 31%. The next closest consistently elite quarterback was the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers, who fell 55% off Brees’ pace (20%).
Not seen on this second list is the Lions’ Matt Stafford. Though he was in the top tier in terms of quality starts (65%), he could only be counted on for an elite performance roughly one out of every 10 times. So even though Brees has started slowly so far this year, history is conclusively on his side here.
As such I’d do the deal. Yes, Brees’ window is smaller than Stafford’s, but seems to align perfectly with your team’s title aspirations. As your first round pick would fall towards the later end of the spectrum, swapping it out for a second rounder is a small price to pay in this case.
3. In a 16-team PPR league, would you trade Jordan Matthews, Eric Ebron and a late 2015 first round pick for Percy Harvin & Michael Crabtree? – Yusuf in Toronto
[inlinead]Despite hitting a recent drop-off in production, I remain high on 49ers receiver Michael Crabtree. Even with reduced snaps over the past few weeks, Crabtree remains tied for the team lead in both targets and receiving touchdowns, albeit on a passing offense not predicated upon aerial volume. Recent doldrums aside, Crabtree seems to be re-capturing the form he displayed prior to a torn Achilles’ lost off-season, and as such I still have him ranked as my dynasty PPR WR22.
Not appearing among my top-25 dynasty wide receivers, however, is the Seahawks’ Percy Harvin. He might be one of the most explosive players in the NFL, but ultimately fantasy football is a results-oriented business – to that point, Harvin only has a modest 133 receiving yards on the season, punctuated by a 3-0-0 line this past week. His 92 rushing yards (and one touchdown) help, but theoretical ability matters little when you’re not a featured player on a run-heavy offense.
Given the totality of these past two paragraphs, I wouldn’t make that deal. Neither Jordan Matthews (my dynasty WR25) nor Eric Ebron (my TE14) is a sure thing, but they’ve flashed enough talent where I believe they’ll be future contributors. Adding on the future first and it’s simply too much.
4. In a half-PPR league would you give up Randall Cobb, Matthew Stafford and Le’Veon Bell to get AJ Green, Carlos Hyde and Cam Newton? – Kevin in MN
I definitely would. Though you’re sacrificing a decent amount at running back by moving from Le’Veon Bell to Carlos Hyde, the latter still appears primed to take over for Frank Gore when he finally hangs ‘em up. He won’t pay off any immediate dividends, but selecting a running back (arguably the NFL’s most devalued position) in the second round shows the 49ers are serious about his future.
Continuing, I’ve already touched upon the falsehood that is Stafford’s perceived ceiling. Though Carolina signal caller Cam Newton’s quality start rate (56%) was actually lower than Stafford’s, his elite start rate (13%) was tied for fifth best. He’s been a top-five seasonal quarterback during each of his three years in the league, and is likely only getting better – I’d consider his acquisition an upgrade to the position.
Finally, AJ Green remains a top receiving option, and arguably dynasty’s most valuable asset. Given the talent disparity between he and Green Bay’s Randall Cobb, as well as the likelihood Cobb could be leaving the cozy confines of Lambeau Field following the 2014 season, this represents a massive upgrade. So despite the plethora of big names in this proposed deal, it’s not one I’d think twice about.
5. Is it time to move on from Montee Ball? I drafted him thinking he’d put up similar numbers to Knowshon Moreno but it just hasn’t happened yet. Should I hold on to him and hope he weathers the storm or should I look to move him? What would I be looking for in return? – Dylan in PA
As I advised in yesterday’s version of Tuesday Transactions, Montee Ball is a player who I wouldn’t hesitate to deal. Sure, it’s inarguable this would break the mold of selling high, but Ball has been soundly outplayed by his backfield compatriots, both this year and last. I don’t believe it’s any guarantee he’ll get his job back when he returns from a groin injury, as former fantasy outcast Ronnie Hillman has looked significantly better. If you cash out now you might not get better than a future second round pick, but that could be considered a coup for a player who just hasn’t shown nearly enough.
6. Depending on how you look at it, I’m either blessed or cursed to own both Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck on my team in my 12-man league. Would you recommend I continue to hold both of them or would I be wise to try improving my team in other areas by trading one of them? If it’s the latter, who and why? – Jordan in Vancouver
It’s my belief this is not a good problem to have. The rationale, as always, is that it just doesn’t pay to invest heavily at the quarterback position in a smaller format. Now I’m not saying you didn’t come into both the Colts’ Andrew Luck and the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers in an organic way, but the truth is you don’t need both of them. As such I’d look to move Rodgers, who finally appears to have abdicated the throne of dynasty’s top signal caller, stepping aside to let Luck slide in. It’s evident Luck finally hit the sweet spot where the space between his ears has caught up to his sizeable talent, and at just 25 years old he could be a top asset for the next 10+ years. Rodgers is no schlub by any stretch, but the changing of the guard has occurred.
7. What do you do with Eddie Lacy? I’m looking for an upgrade at quarterback in my 10-team, non-PPR league, so should I include him in trade talks? I currently have DeMarco Murray, Ben Tate, Andre Ellington, Carlos Hyde and Andre Williams in my running back stable. I hate to give up on him, but who do you think I could get for him? – Jason in MN
You’re certainly well off at running back, and losing Green Bay running back Eddie Lacy would hardly make a dent in your ball carrying corps, which is also inarguably the most important position in a non-PPR setting. With that said, as I mentioned in the question above there’s simply no major emphasis on the quarterback position in smaller league formats such as your own. Unless you have aberrant scoring, there remain several options you could plug and play on a weekly basis while likely still obtaining solid baseline production. However, even given his recent lack of success, I wouldn’t sell Lacy for anything less than Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers, and even then I’d expect another piece or two in return as well. He showed more than enough last year for me to believe he’ll turn it around, and you don’t want to give up on that type of value when he’s undeniably at his low point.
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