Rookie Report Card: Derek Carr and Jarvis Landry
I’ve decided to put my own spin on the concept of a rookie report card. Going forward, the Rookie Report Card will be exactly what it sounds like, a report card.
Not only will I cover my expectations for the player coming into the league and how he’s performed at the NFL level to this point, I’ll actually give him a grade in three categories. Those categories are performance to date, 2014 potential and long term upside. Each week I’ll cover at least two rookies and try to always include the biggest performers from that particular week.
The series continues with a closer look at Derek Carr and Jarvis Landry.
Derek Carr, QB OAK
Week Four Stats: 18/34, 282 yards, four touchdowns, one interception
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As the 2013 college season unfolded, Carr worked his way to the top of my quarterback prospect list. I was fortunate enough to watch him play a couple times as a junior and a few more times as a senior. Each time, he impressed me more than the time before.
I liked everything I saw from Carr during his time at Fresno State. Considering he reminded me of my favorite quarterback of all time Brett Favre, why wouldn’t I? Much like Favre was throughout his career, Carr’s has a rocket arm, great short to intermediate accuracy and very good feet both inside and outside the pocket. He’s also incredibly competitive, can throw on the run and has a gunslinger’s mentality.
Once the off-season got here, I had a chance to see even more of Carr. He was just as impressive. As a senior at Fresno State, he completed 453 of 659 passes (68.7%) for 5,082 yards and 50 touchdowns while tossing just eight interceptions. For the life of me, I couldn’t understand how he slipped out of the first round of the draft.
Before the draft, I had expectations of Carr becoming a top-10 NFL and fantasy quarterback and putting up high-end QB2 numbers as a rookie – as long as he ended up in a good situation. Then Carr was drafted by the Raiders and I had to lower my outlook for him in the short term. Although I loved his skills and upside, I was leery of his landing spot. Not only did Oakland offer an offense with few weapons to help a rookie signal caller but there was a good chance there would be a coaching change in his first year in the league.
Despite my dingy outlook of the franchise Carr was drafted into in Oakland, I happen to be a huge supporter of drafting talent over situation. Therefore, I selected him in four rookie drafts, all of which in the third round or later which I considered to be a bargain.
Since then, Carr looked good in the preseason, completing 30 of 45 passes (67%) for 326 yards, four touchdowns and one interception and overtook the underwhelming Matt Schaub as the Raiders’ starter. He’s also already on to his second head coach. Since the regular season kicked off, he’s completed 102 of 167 passes (61%) for 1,016 yards, eight touchdowns and five interceptions – also adding 68 rushing yards on eight carries (8.5 YPC) in five games.
Although he’s been under constant pressure and hasn’t had the benefit of a quality running game, Carr has been poised in the pocket. He’s shown good accuracy even on deep passes, and has created a lot of time by scrambling outside the pocket while looking downfield. Perhaps most importantly, he’s shown toughness by playing through ankle and knee injuries.
Overall, I’m just as high on Carr’s long term fantasy upside as I was before he was drafted. Although he shouldn’t be trusted as anything more than a QB2 as a rookie, he has the potential to develop into a weekly starter for dynasty owners in a year or two that could become one of the top fantasy signal callers in the game. I have concerns about the Raiders’ organization. But Carr has the type of talent to transform a franchise if he’s given some talent. He’s an excellent trade target for dynasty owners looking to develop a quarterback behind a veteran.
| Rookie Report Card | ||
| Player: Derek Carr | ||
| Performance To Date | 2014 Potential | Long Term Upside |
| C | B- | A |
Jarvis Landry, WR MIA
Week Six Stats: five receptions, 71 receiving yards, one touchdown
For many that spent time watching Landry play while he was in college, it was very easy to come away impressed. After all, he developed into a star receiver in his final year on campus and was also a gritty and determined special teams player in his time at LSU. I wasn’t one of those people, however.
In his final year on campus as a junior, Landry hauled in 77 passes for 1,193 yards and ten touchdowns and led the Tigers in all three categories – outperforming his teammate and 2014 first round draft pick Odell Beckham, Jr. through most of the year.
Supporters of Landry rave about his upside on Sundays but I don’t see it. Although I agree that he possesses an excellent pair of hands and always plucks the ball out of the air with his mitts rather than letting it get to his body, he doesn’t have the explosion or the ability to create separation from defensive backs which is very important for a wide out expected to make his living in the slot. Landry was also regularly praised by many as a great route runner but I saw him as average at best. While he was good running crosses and slants, he lacked the change of direction skills to make space on comebacks, outs and hitch routes.
Although I wasn’t a huge fan of his, Landry did show some strengths while in college. Despite being just 5’11” tall, timing on jump balls is a strength of his to go along with his superb hands. He consistently skies for the ball at the most opportune moment and regularly comes down with balls that are contested. Landry is also very clutch. He moved the chains more than any other receiver in the nation on third down last year and made countless eye popping grabs when the Tigers needed a big catch.
Even though he routinely made impact plays on third down, Landry didn’t create a lot of big plays, due to his lack of explosiveness and speed to pull away from defenders. Instead, Landry made his mark as the short to intermediate target for LSU.
Landry posted an awful 4.77-second time at the scouting combine in May. He proved some of the naysayers wrong by sprinting to a 4.58 second time at his pro day a few weeks later but he dropped a handful of balls in drills that day. No matter, the Dolphins spent a late-second round pick on him.
Since getting to Miami, Landry has had his ups and downs. During training camp, he was reportedly putting pressure on the Brandon Gibson for the third receiver job. He was only on the field for 63 plays in four preseason games, catching just seven passes on eight targets for 73 yards and a fumble on a punt return. Although he didn’t look particularly good, he earned a share of the receiver rotation as well as full-time return duties.
Over the first five games of the regular season, it’s been more of the same for Landry. Since the season kicked off, he’s hauled in 17 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown on 25 targets over those five games and sprinkled in a pair of fumbles and two dropped passes so far this year. He’s played primarily out of the slot, running 68 of his 102 routes (66.7%) from inside the numbers.
On Sunday, Landry had his biggest game in his short pro career. He caught five of his seven targets for 71 yards and his first career touchdown against the Packers. Displaying much of what made him successful in college against Green Bay, he ran short routes, made contested catches and came down with two big third down grabs – one of which went for an impressive nine-yard touchdown. Sunday was a good start for Landry but many have labeled the game as a breakout performance and sign of things to come in 2014. Those that think so however, should reconsider.
Over the Dolphins’ first four games, Landry played 142 of 302 (47%) offensive plays. In that same timeframe Gibson was on the field more often than Landry, playing 151 snaps (50%). Gibson missed the game Sunday against Green Bay with a hamstring injury though, which opened the door for Landry to play 47 of 60 (78%) of the Dolphins’ snaps. There’s a good chance that Gibson returns to his previous role as soon as this weekend.
Overall, my stance on Landry has changed slightly but I still don’t think he’s a fantasy star in the making. In the short term, he’s a far better prospect than Gibson and should take over as Miami’s third receiver full time at some point this year. That said, the erratic quarterback play of Ryan Tannehill as well as Landry’s own inconsistencies will limit his upside as a rookie.
As far as his long term potential goes, it’s incredibly difficult for me to see Landry regularly getting separation due to his lack of explosiveness off the ball as well as long speed restrictions. He’ll have some nice games because he has good hands and can come down with a contested pass, but I see Landry as being extremely inconsistent with the upside equal to that of a WR4.
| Rookie Report Card | ||
| Player: Jarvis Landry | ||
| Performance To Date | 2014 Potential | Long Term Upside |
| D+ | C- | C |
Follow me on Twitter: @dmeylor22
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