Twitter Observations: Week Six
Each week I will be walking through the Twitterverse extracting some of the best commentary from trusted fantasy football minds. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis.
Ahmad Bradshaw, RB IND
Ahmad Bradshaw has been on a fantasy tear this season emerging as a weekly RB1 in all formats. He has been maximizing volume as he and running mate Trent Richardson have been splitting snaps nearly 50/50 to date. Through six weeks, Bradshaw has rushed for five more yards on 27 fewer carries compared to Richardson and the two share a pretty similar yards per catch. Bradshaw is truly excelling in the receiving game though when it comes to scoring touchdowns. A total of five already this season is the main reason he is sitting near the top of the running back rankings. The question moving forward is sustainability as Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus tweeted,
Consider this: Ahmad Bradshaw has zero end zone targets, but leads the Colts in receiving touchdowns. That doesn’t happen.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) October 10, 2014
…Bradshaw has 4 TDs on 6 targets within 6 yards of the EZ. Unsustainable. Also, he has 0 carries within 7 yds of the EZ…. — Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) October 10, 2014
Clearly, Mike believes Bradshaw to be a regression candidate moving forward. When it comes to rushing touchdowns, the Colts have only four on the year with Trent getting two and Andrew Luck grabbing the others. A third of the way through the season and Bradshaw is an afterthought when Indianapolis looks to punch the ball in on the ground. Through the air, Luck has hit seven different players for at least one touchdown, showing the propensity to spread it around and take what the defense gives him. Over the first six weeks, Ahmad has averaged 77 yards per game with his low being at 52 and his high at 98 total yards. Pretty consistent numbers and if you play in PPR leagues he is good for at least three catches a game. While most fantasy fans and analysts would agree Ahmad Bradshaw is the better running back, the coaches are not showing any signs of “fixing” a good thing. So if we believe the receiving touchdowns may regress as Mike suggests and the rushing opportunities will never truly emerge, is now the time to sell? Unless you can package him to get an elite player I am not so sure. He is an integral part of one of the best offenses and while he may not continue to average nearly a touchdown a game, his floor appears fairly high.
Keenan Allen, WR SD
The San Diego Chargers second year receiver entered the year with lofty expectations and was a consensus top 15 receiver in dynasty. Coming off an outstanding rookie campaign and viewed as the top option for Philip Rivers, no one could have expected such a slow start could they? JJ Zachariason suggested it is just a matter of the lack of touchdowns.
Keenan Allen’s still seeing the same number of targets as he did last year, too. He’s just not scoring touchdowns.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) October 13, 2014
[inlinead]In regards to targets, JJ is right on and Keenan Allen has actually seen slightly more targets on average in 2014. The problems are his catch rate is down from last season and he is also averaging four yards less per catch. So, what about the touchdowns? As a rookie, Allen scored eight touchdowns in his last 12 games, which was a very high rate as James Todd (@spidr2ybanana) highlighted in a recent article on RotoViz. As Todd explains, Keenan had been averaging more touchdowns per target than the likes of AJ Green, Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones and other top touchdown talents over the last three seasons. Rivers has also done a great job of spreading around the red zone targets this year to eight different players and Allen has missed on his few opportunities. There is a lingering quad injury Allen has been dealing with, but he has been practicing and playing so I am not sure you can put the blame on this either. Overall it appears Malcom Floyd has been likely stealing more deep throws, reducing Allen’s yards on shorter routes and the touchdowns may have been inflated a little last season. In redrafts, I would not be surprised to see Allen hit the waiver wire this week and in dynasty his value has taken a pretty big hit, particularly with the new crop of rookie receivers dominating this season. At this point you can’t really start him and you cannot sell either with his value at rock bottom.
Davante Adams, WR GB
The second round pick for the Green Bay Packers was a top rookie target coming in the season. He quickly appeared to pass up Jarrett Boykin for the number three wide receiver option even before Boykin’s injuries kept him off the field. Peter King also highlighted the trust Aaron Rodgers already has shown in Adams after he helped set up the winning score against the Dolphins on Sunday. The most important thing for fantasy owners though is production, and as John Paulsen commented, Adams is increasing his;
Davante Adams played 78% of the snaps as the Packers’ WR3. Posted 6-77 (8) and had more targets than Randall Cobb. Near TD was tipped away. — John Paulsen (@4for4_John) October 13, 2014
Moving forward, there is no reason to expect his usage or targets to falter and he could easily wind up being a consistent WR3 with upside the remainder of the season. Long term it will be interesting to see what the Packers do with Cobb as he is an unrestricted free agent in 2015. If Cobb leaves for more money elsewhere, Adams could wind up being a great value for at least the next three seasons.
Percy Harvin, WR SEA
Percy Harvin’s weekly fantasy points have been dropping steadily through the first five games this season culminating in his six touches for negative one yard effort against the Cowboys. At the rate he is going, I would plan on a fumble and negative ten yards against the Rams. DLF’s George Kritikos was left confused like most of us looking at the snap counts for Seattle tweeting,
Percy Harvin third in WR snaps (29) to Doug Baldwin & Jermaine Kearse (50 each). Thigh injury seemed ok. Just ineffective?
— George Kritikos (@RotoHack) October 13, 2014
Rich Hribar tweeted the more humorous side of Harvin’s usage quipping,
Seattle is currently paying Percy Harvin $100,751.88 per receiving yard this year. — Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) October 12, 2014
The problem is that week six was not an anomaly and Percy continuously sees fewer snaps than his counterparts. I am not sure anyone has a truly good answer for how you pay your third wide receiver $64 million while having your number one wide out make less than seven figures. Many expected Harvin’s talent and ability to shine through even on an offense that ran fewer plays, but this has just not materialized. Unless we hear of a drastic change by the coaching staff to get Harvin more involved, you really cannot start him and I would gladly exchange his services for any number of rookie receivers including the aforementioned Adams.
Matt Forte, RB CHI
The Chicago Bears Matt Forte is taking the cliché of the NFL becoming a passing league to a whole new level in 2014. The two statements below highlight the season Forte is putting together and if you own him in PPR leagues I am not sure you could sell him for anything less than an entire starting roster.
Matt Forte’s 46 receptions lead running backs — and the league. — Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat) October 13, 2014
Matt Forte leads #Bears in targets (55) & NFL in receptions (46). On pace for 123-1,003-3 in the passing game alone.
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) October 13, 2014
Michael Bennett, TE CHI The self-named Black Unicorn currently is fourth in total snaps, second in targets, first in receptions and fourth in receiving yards amongst all tight ends through six weeks. He also has a respectable four touchdowns to add to his fantasy totals. But there may be reason to worry moving forward.
Impressive to see Bennett w/ 50 tgts despite lining up w/ league-best WR duo. Not sure he can keep it up… 37 tgts W1-W4… 7 tgts W5-6 — Marc (@MegatronFF) October 13, 2014
Both Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery have dealt with injuries to start the year forcing Jay Cutler to rely on his tight end more. As both now appear healthy it is unlikely to continue to expect the same success. Bennett did just go up against a Falcons defense rated first in the NFL against his position, but expectations likely need to be tempered moving forward.
Storm Johnson, RB JAX
Jacksonville Running Back Storm Johnson produced practically nothing in his first opportunity to start at running back and if it were not for the rushing touchdown, he likely would have had to delete his Twitter account. As Josh Moore tweeted he was not even the best option on the day,
Denard played more snaps and contributed more in passing game. Without the TD Storm Johnson totaled 16 total yards on 10 touches.
— Josh Moore (@4for4_Josh) October 13, 2014
Overall this just about sums up the Jaguars running back situation currently,
Storm Johnson adding evidence to support the theory that it doesn’t matter who plays running back in Jacksonville. — Cian O’Fathaigh (@Cianaf) October 13, 2014
If you happen to own any piece of the running Jacksonville running game I suggest you drop them immediately and let another owner burn a roster spot.
Special thanks to Pro Football Focus’ Premium Stats for knowledge myself and practically all other fantasy football fans could not possibly hope to know.
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Luke practically owns the Twitter machine at @FFGator
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