Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Six

Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. We’ll pick one player from each team who we have our eye on and describe why their weekend performance is a key one for them in relation to their dynasty value.

Early Games

New England at Buffalo

The New England hype man known as Tim Wright had a strong week five, securing all five of his targets for 85 yards. While he is starting to get more snaps (35 in the last two weeks after 34 in the first three weeks), Wright remains third on the tight end depth chart. Perhaps Belichick is gaining confidence in the new addition; his role could expand in the incoming weeks along with an uptick in his fantasy value.

A past Huddle watch, Sammy Watkins, was the primary beneficiary of the switch to Kyle Orton. Watkins caught seven of twelve targets for 87 yards, accounting for 30% of Orton’s passes. I’m interested to see if he remains the focal point and if Orton’s arm is a detriment to his yardage totals.

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Pittsburgh at Cleveland

After several useful weeks, Markus Wheaton regressed as Ben Roethlisberger looked to Antonio Brown and his running back group frequently. My thought is that this is an anomaly and we will see an uptick from the two targets Wheaton received last week (he has five or more targets in every other game in 2014). This may be a slight buy low opportunity for any owners still looking to get into the Wheaton market.

The Browns have been dealing with lots of holes on offense, but are now getting healthy. One of those is Jordan Cameron as he saw a season high 73 snaps (of 78 total) and targets (six). There is a lot of room for improvement here and I think it continues this week as Brian Hoyer continues to aim for a starting job beyond 2014.

Denver at New York Jets

The loss of Montee Ball creates an interesting situation in the backfield. While C.J. Anderson has shown to be the best pure runner, Ronnie Hillman does everything good and nothing great. Meanwhile, preseason dark horse Juwan Thompson continues to lie in wait. Anderson has the best chance to run away with this job while Thompson has his first chance to carve out a role here. The Jets are a tough run defense which could prove to be a pivotal testing ground for the team…or it could cause Peyton Manning to throw upwards of 50 times.

The stink of the New York Jets’ quarterback situation hit new lows in 2014. How does 12-of-31 for 74 yards with no touchdowns (one interception) and 17 rushing yards against the Chargers sound? It was as if the Jets decided this was the Ryan Leaf revenge game, but got it backwards. This week looks no better as even Chris Ivory is a fringe start in a game that is going to get out of hand quickly. Bench them all and hope this game helps sort some (any) of this out.

Green Bay at Miami

One of my favorite rookies, Davante Adams, continues to see an increase in playing time as he tied for the team lead in wide receiver snaps (46) in week five. He should be a part of the game plan going forward and should see increased attention to other receivers result in more opportunities. With Miami’s strong cornerback duo of Brent Grimes and Cortland Finnegan focused on Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, Adams could be the beneficiary in this game.

While Jelani Jenkins is getting a lot of the attention, Philip Wheeler is proving himself with increased playing time. His first two games consisted of three total tackles (one solo), his last two has resulted in 14 tackles (all solo) with his playing time finally exceeding 50% of the total snaps in week four. Wheeler is plus in pass coverage and run defense so he should be on the field often ready to make plays and could be a nice fill-in for owners dealing with bye weeks or injuries.

Baltimore at Tampa Bay

While Baltimore’s offense has been hard to predict, their defense has one consistent star – that would be rookie C.J. Mosley, the first round linebacker from Alabama. He has at least five solo tackles in every game and set season highs last week with 12 solo and three assisted tackles. Mosley looks like a top flight option in this defense and it will continue against Tampa’s ineffective running game.

Another Alabama alum coming into his own is Bucs safety Mark Barron. He is on pace for 100 solo tackles and has become a leader on the defense. Barron is also a dynasty IDP cornerstone for any secondary and should continue his productive ways.

Carolina at Cincinnati

Fast becoming a versatile weapon for what has been a traditionally bland offense, Philly Brown is an interesting dynasty option. Last week, the Panthers even designed a few runs to get him into space. Brown could become an option opposite Kelvin Benjamin in the future but watching his usage in the interim will be telling of the opinion the coaching staff has.

With the injuries to the receiving corps, Mohamed Sanu gets one last chance at staking his claim at a starting spot. Last time A.J. Green and Marvin Jones were out, Sanu was second in targets behind Giovani Bernard. Unless he asserts himself in this matchup, Sanu will be relegated to third receiver duties and loses much of his dynasty value.

Detroit at Minnesota

With Calvin Johnson out, Corey Fuller enters the starting lineup opposite Golden Tate. Fuller has the size (6’2”) and speed (4.43, former track star) that makes some fantasy owners salivate at the possibilities. He will have opportunities given the attention paid to Tate, but will Matthew Stafford look to him?

The second wide receiver spot across from Greg Jennings is becoming less clear. Cordarelle Patterson looked like the clear choice at the beginning of the season, but was actually outsnapped by Jarius Wright 62 to 41 in week five. Whether this was a result of the blowout against Green Bay or the familiarity Wright has with Christian Ponder is unimportant. With Teddy Bridgewater coming back, does the shift in play turn back to Patterson or has Wright overtaken him?

Jacksonville at Tennessee

Another week, another running back. This time it is the sharpest named running back: Storm Johnson. The sixth round rookie seems to be the next guy in line to get a shot to carry the load. Johnson’s resume has been documented by the rest of the DLF crew, but I will say that he has just as good a chance as any to win the starting job.

As much as I love Justin Hunter, last week’s game did more to concern me than make me hopeful. He was third in targets amongst receivers despite being first in total snaps. The Jacksonville secondary is the worst in the NFL so if his targets remain low here, it may be difficult to start him going forward.

Afternoon Games

San Diego at Oakland

After feasting last week due to a Donald Brown concussion, Branden Oliver became the hot addition this past week in redraft leagues. Here at DLF though, many of us knew his upside after he beat out Marion Grice in the preseason. Now with his biggest obstacle out of the way (playing time), he gets one of the easier defenses to showcase his versatile skills.

The never-ending carousel of terrible depth in Oakland continues as the signing of Kenbrell Thompkins muddies up an already disgusting receiving core. No position on this team is set in stone or playable in fantasy, but eventually someone is going to become a viable option for Derek Carr opposite James Jones. Thompkins won’t get much time in this game but where his playing time comes from will be telling of the coaching staff’s plans.

Dallas at Seattle

My assumption is that Dez Bryant will be seeing a lot of Richard Sherman this week, so my attention goes over to Terrance Williams who will be likely covered by human sieve Byron Maxwell. Maxwell has given up 24 catches on 29 targets and has been picked on to the tune of double digit targets by both Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning. Tony Romo isn’t quite in their class but he is a savvy veteran who is willing to progress his reads past Bryant towards a more favorable matchup – this is one of those times.

Seattle is not known as a pass first team, but the loss of Morris Claiborne to a season ending knee injury opens up the field a little more for Russell Wilson. This could be a game where Doug Baldwin gets a fair share of targets and a touchdown given the state of the Cowboys secondary. Marshawn Lynch is still the focal point of the offense but a battered secondary should lead to a few productive fantasy days for the Seattle passing game.

Chicago at Atlanta

This offense is pretty well set, so let’s turn to Willie Young, who is emerging as a top tier defensive end. Tied for the positional lead in sacks with five, he is also among the league leaders at the position in total tackles (17) and first in assisted tackles (seven, which we all know is a crapshoot thanks to Eric Olinger). The Falcons offense will be passing often so Young has a chance to make a real impact in this game.

Antone Smith has been a recent darling of the fantasy world given his proclivity for breaking big runs off for touchdowns. The coaching staff promises to get him more snaps and touches in this offense so while he remains a bench stash for now, he could take a larger share that makes his stats more predictable and playable.

Washington at Arizona

The combination of DeSean Jackson, a known deep threat, and Antonio Cromartie, a player who leads the NFL in average yards per reception against (22.8), makes for an interesting matchup. Kirk Cousins should be looking down the field when these two pair up, as he did with Jackson last week. DeSean might be going on that annual scoring binge where it is fun to ride out and then cash out immediately.

Dynasty owners are familiar with Logan Thomas, but they were not hoping the Cardinals’ skill players needed to be for a long time. With the injuries at quarterback, Thomas and his Elton John-like arm (Rocket Man? Nothing?) take the field against a vulnerable Redskins secondary. I’m not sure he has the touch to capitalize on the matchup but his progression in that department will be tested as Ryan Kerrigan (six sacks, first in the NFL) and company come after him early and often.

Sunday Night Game

New York Giants at Philadelphia

After watching him last week, I may owe an apology to Odell Beckham and his supporters. Sometimes the numbers belie football skills and Beckham appears to have hoarded them and gave Reuben Randle the finger when he asked for some. Beckham could become Eli Manning’s favorite outside option very soon and this week will test his trust as Eli will be looking to throw frequently.

I, for one, am not worried about Jordan Matthews’ position in the slot and his snap count in week five (36) being roughly half of Riley Cooper’s (71). Nick Foles targets him (seven in week five) and Matthews is clearly on the field to catch passes, not run block. The Giants are a team capable of pushing the score into the thirties so Philadelphia may lean on Matthews a little more this week.

Monday Night Game

San Francisco at Saint Louis

Frank Gore’s versatility keeps him in the driver’s seat of this running back platoon but Carlos Hyde is gaining fast. After seeing about 30% of the running back snaps in the first four weeks, the gap narrowed in week five (39 for Gore, 31 for Hyde). Was this an aberration or a trend? Hyde has run well this season and could see his stock soar with increased playing time so his snap count remains an intriguing storyline for dynasty owners.

Another running back situation in flux, the Rams are taking a hard look at Zac Stacy after last week’s injury and costly fumble (his second of the season). Benny Cunningham, meanwhile, is putting up similar numbers and keeping the ball secure, which may be an impetus for increased playing time. The 49ers remain a top tier run defense, making any success by either player in the running game a clear advantage going forward.

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