Rookie Report Card: Week Five
I’ve decided to put my own spin on the concept of a rookie report card. Going forward, the Rookie Report Card will be exactly what it sounds like, a report card.
Not only will I cover my expectations for the player coming into the league and how he’s performed at the NFL level to this point, I’ll actually give him a grade in three categories. Those categories are performance to date, 2014 potential and long term upside. Each week I’ll cover at least two rookies and try to always include the biggest performers from that particular week.
The series continues with a closer look at Branden Oliver and Andre Williams.
Branden Oliver, RB SD
Week Five Stats: 19 carries, 114 rushing yards, four receptions, 68 receiving yards, two touchdowns
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Many dynasty owners had no idea who Oliver was before this past preseason kicked off. After all, he did play his college ball at Buffalo. I however, was all over Oliver – but I can’t take any of the credit.
I first read about Oliver in the ORANGE Report which is written by TheFFGhost. This is what he wrote.
“When you watch Oliver you see a very determined, small, compact running back who gains yards through sheer will. So much of his game is very reminiscent of last season’s running back surprise, Zac Stacy (however, if you checked out my evaluations last season about Stacy you were ahead of the game).
Oliver does a large chunk of his work between the tackles, squeezing into small holes if need be. Once he’s committed to a hole, Oliver continues to look for opportunities. He has great change of direction skills and can move laterally very well. Oliver also utilizes cutback lanes and has a solid sidestep move.
However, if no opportunities are presented to him, Oliver has no problem lowering his head and churning his legs to gain the hard yards. He can also be fully utilized in the passing game with dependable hands and solid pass blocking skills. Where Oliver will see his stock decline is in the fact that his physical style has taken its toll on his health. Oliver suffered knee and leg injuries which immediately worry NFL teams when looking for a running back.”
Before we go any further, can we just pause for a moment to give Ghost a high five for that brilliant scouting report of Oliver? Man, he knocked it out of the park. Everything he said there has been exactly what he’s displayed to this point with the Chargers.
When I read those three paragraphs in late April, I jotted Oliver’s name down along with about a dozen others that I hadn’t seen play and wanted to. A couple weeks later when I found some film of him online, I saw exactly what Ghost saw in him.
In his four years at Buffalo, Oliver was a workhorse for the Bulls. He carried the ball 866 times for 4,049 yards (4.7 YPC) and 33 touchdowns in his time on campus and added 75 catches for 655 yards and another score through the air.
As Ghost wrote, Oliver did a majority of his damage between the tackles even though his size (5’8”, 208 pounds) may suggest that shouldn’t be the case. He displayed excellent vision while in college, always waiting for his blocks to develop before blasting through the hole and consistently breaking tackles while always fighting for extra yardage.
Obviously though, there was a reason Oliver wasn’t selected in the draft. Like Ghost pointed out, he struggled with injuries while in college which led many to wonder if his small stature would allow him to hold up to playing on Sundays. There were also many that questioned if the lack of top end competition in the Mid-American Conference inflated his numbers in college and running for just 73 yards on 26 carries (2.8 YPC) against Ohio State as a senior didn’t help prove that theory wrong.
Many of those worries evaporated in the preseason though when Oliver ran for 161 yards and a score on 35 carries (4.6 YPC) while holding his own as a pass blocker, albeit against mostly backups. Now that Ryan Mathews, Danny Woodhead and perhaps Donald Brown are out of the lineup, Oliver’s opportunity to shine is here and in week five he didn’t disappoint.
To anybody who saw Oliver play in college (or read Ghost’s thoughts on him in The Orange Report), his 182-yard, two touchdown game on Sunday wasn’t a fluke. He made quick, decisive cuts between the tackles, finished his runs with power and was incredibly elusive in space with the ball in his hands which was exactly what he displayed while at Buffalo.
Since he arrived in San Diego, many have compared Oliver to former Charger Darren Sproles which is really easy considering they both wear the same number and have similar statures. Personally, I think the better comparison may be Warrick Dunn, who was a bit lighter than Oliver, but was very quick and didn’t only rely on his perimeter game to make plays.
In the short term, Oliver should be very useful to fantasy owners – especially those in PPR leagues. In the coming weeks, he should get a majority of the touches out of the backfield for the Chargers until Mathews gets healthy and even then, he should take over Woodhead’s role as the full time third down back. For those of you who don’t think that sounds like a valuable fantasy asset, keep in mind Woodhead finished 2013 as the 13th highest scoring running back in PPR leagues with 223.8 points.
As far as Oliver’s long term potential, it’s hard to gauge until we see how he plays in the coming weeks. If he stays healthy though, there’s no reason to think he can’t continue to play a role much like Sproles, Woodhead and Shane Vereen have for years and possibly become a fulltime tailback if he continues to prove he could handle such a role.
| Rookie Report Card | ||
| Player: Branden Oliver | ||
| Performance To Date | 2014 Potential | Long Term Upside |
| C+ | B | B+ |
Andre Williams, RB NYG
Week Four Stats: 20 carries, 65 yards, one touchdown, two receptions, 18 receiving yards
I wasn’t a very big fan of Williams after watching him play at Boston College. He had a burst through the hole but seemed to go down on first contact far too often for my taste. It also rubbed me the wrong way that he wasn’t asked to be take part in the passing game, catching only 10 balls in his career and none in his final year on campus.
Once draft season got underway, I read countless articles and opinions about Williams and many thought he was destined for great things in the NFL. They pointed to his 3,739 rushing yards in college and 5.3-yard average as well as his 18 touchdowns on the ground as a senior as evidence that he could be a lead back at the next level. They also reasoned that his lack of production as a receiver had less to do with his skills and more to do with the coaching staff not allowing him to be a part of the passing game and that he was impressive at his pro day catching the ball. But as I read those opinions, I couldn’t help but remember that when I watched him play, I just didn’t see a dynamic runner.
At the scouting combine, Williams didn’t do much to change my opinion of him. He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.56 seconds and didn’t look particularly good in any of the workouts, especially the pass catching drills. After that, I was confident in assessment of Williams. When he slipped to the fourth round of the draft, I was even more self-assured.
In the preseason Williams looked a lot like he did in college. He hit the hole quickly, got what was blocked and wasn’t a factor as a receiver. Although his numbers looked good (38 carries, 195 yards and two touchdowns), most of his damage was done against second and third stringers.
Since the regular season has started, it’s been more of the same for Williams. So far he’s rushed for 170 yards on 54 carries (3.1 YPC) and two touchdowns and contributed just four receptions for 25 yards through the air. Although his numbers aren’t eye popping and I’m not a big fan of his upside as a full-time runner, he’s been impressive on a few carries over the last two weeks – particularly his touchdown run on Sunday where he ran over a linebacker on the way to the goal line.
Although he’s displayed a good burst and very good power since joining the Giants, I’m still not onboard with those who think Williams will be a regular fantasy contributor at some point. His hands are obviously a problem as evidenced by the two awful drops he’s had so far this year and that will keep him off the field in passing situations going forward. He’s also not nearly dynamic enough with the ball in his hands to expect him to earn a fulltime job.
Over the next few weeks Williams has the potential to contribute to fantasy teams if Rashad Jennings misses time due to the knee injury he suffered on Sunday. With that said, it’s very hard for me to see Tom Coughlin trusting a rookie with a large amount of touches if he has a veteran option. After all, he wouldn’t trust David Wilson in the same type of situation. Williams’ upside is limited for the rest of 2014 and I’d be surprised if he contributes as anything more than a flex option for fantasy owners very often this year.
In the long term, I have a hard time seeing Williams as anything more than a rotational tailback that could contribute as a goal line option and possibly fill in for an injured starter if needed. His lack of skills as a receiver combined with his inability to make defenders miss in the open field will likely keep him from being a reliable fantasy producer for dynasty owners both in the short and long term.
| Rookie Report Card | ||
| Player: Andre Williams | ||
| Performance To Date | 2014 Potential | Long Term Upside |
| C- | C | C |
Follow me on Twitter: @dmeylor22
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