Tuesday Transactions: Week Five

Eric Hardter Posted On October 7, 2014

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Dynasty football is undoubtedly a marathon, not a sprint. With that said, in-season roster management is still every bit as critical as in a standard re-draft format and arguably even more so given the potential long-term ramifications. As such, this weekly piece is here to provide you with a dozen moves it might just behoove you to make.

Continuing, these transactions will be broken down into four categories: players you should buy low, sell high, buy high and sell low. The first two are self explanatory and follow the typical stock market analogy, which is that you should pounce when the market fluctuates in your favor – if you can get the most bang for your buck or scoop up the metaphorical penny stocks who have room to grow, it could be in your best interest to do so. Conversely, the latter two categories represent a contradictory stance, and some might even consider them “desperation” moves – however, it’s my belief that buying high beats buying higher, and selling low is preferable to selling even lower.

Before I dispense my advice though, I want to provide one final disclaimer – these opinions are my own. If you’re higher or lower on any of the players mentioned below you should absolutely stick to your guns. With that said, I believe there’s also enough of a sample size thus far in the season where we can begin to diverge from our off-season assessments.

As you may recall, last week’s edition was a special look at players you should hold, and as such there are no “hindsight” statistics to report. As such we’ll move onto the fallout from this week!

Buy Low

1. Brian Tyms, WR NE – In case you haven’t noticed, the New England wideout corps is a mess behind Julian Edelman. Veterans Brandon LaFell and Danny Amendola have failed to separate, promising second year player Aaron Dobson hasn’t been a part of the game plan and fellow sophomore Kenbrell Thompkins was recently cut. Given this mess of mediocrity, it’s more than reasonable to wonder if Tyms, who made the roster as an UDFA and stuck despite a four-game suspension, could get some run. Tyms boasts a combination of size (6’4”, 221 pounds) and speed (4.48 second 40-yard dash) only Dobson can approach, and looked good during preseason action (11/188/2 on 18 targets – 10.44 YPT) with backup Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm – could production with starter Tom Brady be next? This could be your last week to find out cheaply.

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2. Joseph Randle, RB DAL – To be clear, though Randle looked improved upon a pedestrian 2013 rookie season, I don’t believe he has any excess of special qualities as a runner. With that said, starter DeMarco Murray has handled a monstrous 145-touch workload through five games, a rate not likely to be sustained for the entire season. Adding in Murray’s (overstated, but not completely ignorable) injury history and it behooves owners to have the next in line. While losing Murray would more than likely directly lead to higher volume for quarterback Tony Romo, Dallas’ league-best offensive line offers upside to whichever backfield member gets the touches.

3. Eric Decker, WR NYJ – No, he’s not going to put up the stats he did in the Peyton Manning-led Denver offense and it’s time stubborn owners gave up the ghost realized this truth. However, he’s also not as bad as his current 2014 ranking (PPR WR45) and could represent a target for owners looking for WR3-level depth. The Jets passing offense remains an <ahem> “work in progress,” but once he’s over his hamstring injury, I expect Decker to remain the most targeted pass catcher.

Sell High

1. Riley Cooper, WR PHI – A year after securing eight scores (on just 84 targets), week five marked Cooper’s first receiving touchdown of the year. Though his target pace (6.2 per game) is actually ahead of where it was last year, it’s not enough if he’s not getting into the end zone. You likely won’t get much as it is, but it will likely beat the return you’d receive later in the year as Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz continue to eat into the target share.

2. Steven Jackson, RB ATL – Much like with Cooper above, Jackson simply isn’t scoring enough right now. With only two touchdowns in five games, S-Jax isn’t properly supplementing an inefficient running style (3.8 YPC). With that said, Jackson still handled 62% of the carries in week five, while grabbing five receptions as well, ensuring a fine bottom line of 18.4 PPR points. With the coaching staff finally talking about giving the explosive Antone Smith a larger share, I’d expect those types of days to become few and far between as the year goes on.

3. Jarius Wright, WR MIN – There’s not always a linear correlation between whether or not I like a player and whether or not he’s a good dynasty sell. Wright represents one such outlier – simply put, I believe he’s shown an aptitude for making plays when given the opportunity. And in this last two-game stretch Wright has received said opportunity, to the tune of 18 targets (24.3% of the team’s total targets). Though he dropped a few passes on a rain-soaked Lambeau Field this past Thursday, Wright still managed to turn those targets into 11 receptions for 159 yards. Unfortunately, the other shoe is guaranteed to drop at some point when Cordarrelle Patterson gets more involved, meaning Wright’s value is likely to diminish.

Buy High

1. Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR – Sometimes it’s as simple as talent meeting opportunity. Though he needs to improve upon his drop rate and catch percentage, Benjamin is easily leading the Panthers with 47 targets, a figure which also stands as the seventh most in the league. He’ll more than likely require a tidy sum to acquire, but it’s better now than at this point next year.

2. Dwayne Allen, TE IND – All he does is score touchdowns! Allen secured a team leading (tied with Ahmad Bradshaw) fourth receiving touchdown on Sunday, slowly but surely turning into Andrew Luck’s red zone target of choice. Perhaps more importantly, he’s proven to be an efficient receiver, catching 15 of his 20 targets for 204 yards (10.20 YPT). In what essentially amounts to Allen’s second year, it’s my belief we’re only beginning to see what he’s capable of.

3. Andre Ellington, RB ARI – Give me some credit here – as DLF’s leader of the Ellington Express, it’s remarkable I’ve waited this long to promote one of my favorite dynasty running backs. Looking healthier following a bye week, Ellington showed his trademark explosion in breaking an 81-yard touchdown reception against fantasy’s 11^th stingiest defense against running backs. More important, however, was his five-yard touchdown run earlier in the game, showing that coach Bruce Arians is finally willing to give him the ball in the red zone. This higher fantasy ceiling now combines with an already high floor (73.8% of the running back carries and 3.3 receptions per game), making Ellington a potentially elite fantasy ball carrying option.

Sell Low

1. Bernard Pierce, RB BAL – Declared healthy by head coach John Harbaugh, Pierce nevertheless received just four carries in a loss to the Colts – this placed him behind fellow backs Justin Forsett (six carries, 13 total touches) and Lorenzo Taliaferro (five carries). Already lacking utility in the passing game, Pierce’s upside is seemingly taking a hit every week – he could very well turn things around, but I’d rather someone else explore that unlikelihood.

2. Toby Gerhart, RB JAX – Unfortunately for those who had visions of Gerhart becoming the next great backup-turned-starter, the sad truth is he just isn’t very good. He’s averaging a T-Richian 2.6 YPC through five games, while gradually losing time to the more explosive Denard Robinson and Storm Johnson. The Jaguars certainly haven’t done him any favors in terms of a supporting cast, but Gerhart needs to shoulder the bulk of the blame – I’d gladly accept a fourth round draft pick for him at this point.

3. Donald Brown, RB SD – By now you might be noticing a trend within this category – running back remains the most volatile position in fantasy football. Brought in as a failsafe for the inevitable Ryan Mathews injury, Brown underwhelmed even before suffering a concussion in a week five matchup with the Jets. Adding insult to injury, he then saw UDFA ball carrier Branden Oliver do his best LaDainian Tomlinson impression to the tune of 182 total yards and two touchdowns on just 23 touches. With Oliver now firmly on the fantasy radar and Mathews set to return soon, I’d employ the same bailout strategy with Brown as I would with Gerhart above.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.