Who is Josh Hill?
Although he is not a rookie, few even in dynasty circles are familiar with tight end Josh Hill of the New Orleans Saints. That is, unless you are a Jimmy Graham owner frustrated that Hill has caught a touchdown pass each of the last two weeks. After receiving multiple requests to feature the second year player out of Idaho State (and being a curious Graham owner in multiple leagues myself), now is a good time to get a better understanding of what type of player Hill is and determine whether he is an anomaly, a John Kuhn-like touchdown vulture, a future starter, or somewhere in between.
Another tight end who has starred in multiple sports, Hill was a high school basketball and baseball star before limiting his focus on football when he went to Idaho State. In his first collegiate football season, Hill played in every game, though he only caught eight passes for 68 yards. He caught 17 balls for 165 yards and three touchdowns the following season, then totaled 48 receptions for 407 yards and a touchdown in his junior year. It was 2012, his Senior season, in which Hill finally broke out with 70 receptions for 630 yards and five touchdowns, all of which nearly matched his statistics in each category for his first three seasons combined.
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
An undrafted free agent, Hill did not attend the 2013 NFL Combine. The 6’5”, 246 pound tight end recorded strong metrics relative to his position in many of the drills at his Pro Day, though these results don’t have the same level of credibility as they would have at the Combine. Still, his 4.66 40-yard dash and 10’7” broad jump would have ranked him in the top two tight ends for each drill and represents good explosiveness for a player his size. Following the draft, the Saints signed the All-American and he made the roster out of training camp.
What they saw in Hill was his athleticism and great overall receiving skills. He accelerates quickly and runs strong routes, demonstrating an ability to get by linebackers quickly and then outmuscle defenders in the secondary. When a pass is thrown in his direction, he can adjust and shows a big catch radius. Finally showing good production in his senior season silenced critics about his ability to translate his raw skills to the field, and he has performed when called upon at the NFL level. Hill possesses the size-speed combination that metrics enthusiasts covet for the tight-end position.
Limiting those opportunities is the combination of having a teammate who is the best in the league at his position and Hill’s below-average blocking ability. While he has room to strengthen his frame, linebackers push him around too much and he does not win enough contested passes. Despite his upside, Hill is still very much developing his game and has struggled with drops.
In his rookie season, Hill played in 14 games including three starts. He caught six passes for 44 yards and a touchdown in the regular season with an athletic reception for 23 yards in the Saints’ Divisional Round loss to Seattle. He played significantly on special teams while learning the tight end position from Graham and Ben Watson and performed well enough to be considered a lock for the roster in 2014.
Prior to the start of this season, Hill found himself taking most of the snaps with the first team due to Graham’s non-participation as a result of his franchise tag debacle. After a zero reception game in week one and a reception for a loss of one yard in week two, Hill resurfaced in week three following an injury to Watson and caught both of his targets for 48 yards including a 34-yard touchdown reception. He then added a 12-yard touchdown reception in week four. Head Coach Sean Payton has since commented on incorporating Hill more into the offense though he still needs to work on his fundamentals, particularly in the area of blocking.
The continued trend upward in two-tight end sets for New Orleans should get Hill on the field more and the second-year player would step right in should Graham miss any time. He is already a trusted player on special teams, playing nearly every snap on every unit, and is starting to get more targets as opponents focus on taking Graham out of the game. He has also lined up as a fullback and split out wide. Keep in mind that his strength is pass catching, not blocking, so getting Hill on the field means New Orleans is generally going to try to get the ball into his hands.
One of the more obscure players featured in this series, given that he is an undrafted free agent “veteran,” Hill is available in the vast majority of dynasty leagues. In the short term, barring injuries to the Saints’ starters, expect perhaps three or four targets and 30 yards receiving per game with the occasional touchdown. His value is largely dependent upon the status of Graham (who is signed through the 2017 season) as his upside is capped as the second tight end option, but could provide Niles Paul-like returns this season if given a comparable opportunity.
He is currently not worth using a roster spot in standard-sized leagues given the presence of Graham and surplus of receiving talent on the Saints, but is a name to monitor and possibly acquire in deep tight-end premium leagues.
[/am4show]
- Dynasty Capsule: Jacksonville Jaguars - February 5, 2018
- My Beginner’s Guide to Reality Sports Online - May 12, 2017
- The DLF Mailbag - February 24, 2017
