Dynasty Mythbusters: Larry Donnell

Jacob Feldman

donnell

We are now at the quarter pole of the NFL season and things are starting to look really good for a few players while others are looking worse than we could imagine. Of course, the tricky part is figuring out if those trends will continue – that is where I come in. For those of you unfamiliar with the Dynasty Mythbusters series, the goal of the article is to analyze certain trends, potential breakouts or just downright bad play in an attempt to predict what we can expect in the future.

Am I always right? Definitely not. But I did suggest that you sell, sell, sell on Trent Richardson very early in the season last year (before it was a trendy thing to say!), ignore the week one “breakouts” of Jerome Simpson and Leonard Hankerson just to name a few.

The fantasy community as a whole tends to have a very strong tendency to overreact to small sample sizes. This is especially true when it comes to early season production. After all, it is only natural after months and months of buildup, thinking your team is great, to get disappointed when your stud disappoints. Don’t go trading them for pennies on the dollar. They will be back. It works in the opposite direction as well. We all like the feeling of grabbing that virtual unknown and watching them turn into the next Jimmy Graham. The problem is the vast majority of the time they don’t pan out and trading your first round pick or an every week starter away for him would be a major mistake.

Through this series, I’ll do my best to focus on guys who are likely to be talked up as potential waiver additions or who are end of the bench guys on most rosters who you might be able to snag with a reasonable trade offer. After all, it is a little late for me to be telling you to go after Matt Asiata since Adrian Peterson is gone.

This week I’m going to take a look at someone who is definitely not on the waiver wire in your league if you play in any league worth playing, but he is likely the subject of quite a few trade discussions right now. The tricky part is figuring out the appropriate price.

Larry Donnell, TE NYG
Season totals: 31 targets have been turned into 25 receptions for 236 yards and four touchdowns.

Like in most situations, a little bit of background is going to be very important to the discussion at hand. The 2014 off-season once again had a very familiar story, the Giants and Eli Manning were trying to figure out who their starting tight end was going to be. It has been a revolving door ever since Kevin Boss started three years in a row from 2008-2010. Since then Jake Ballard, Martellus Bennett and Brandon Myers have served one year stints with the Giants. With Myers in Tampa Bay, the Giants were once again hunting for a starter. The early favorite was probably Adrien Robinson with the potential of the Giants chasing Jermichael Finley, but Robinson vastly underperformed yet again during OTAs and training camp opening the door for others.

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Enter Larry Donnell.

The 6’6”, 265 pound Donnell spent his college days at Grambling State. He was originally a quarterback before being switched to the tight end position. His college production wasn’t enough to get a combine invite and his pro-day wasn’t enough to get him signed by any NFL squad in 2011. After a full year away from organized football, he was signed by the Giants and spent 2012 on the Giants’ practice squad, but didn’t see any action on Sundays. In 2013 he saw meaningful snaps in only one game (which was early in the season) when he had three receptions for 31 yards. After a start like that to an NFL career, anyone who expected him to be the starter on any NFL team prior to this summer (though we were on the ball earlier than most) was either delusional or needs to take some money to Vegas because no one saw it coming.

Since July, he has locked down the starting tight end position, earned Eli’s trust, and burst onto the fantasy scene as one of the best tight ends of the young season. Of course the elephant in the room is if he’ll be able to keep the pace he’s set. Were the three touchdowns a product of playing against the Redskins or is he a touchdown machine? Will he still be an asset down the road or is he just another player in the long run of one and done tight ends for the Giants?

The Good: When it comes to good qualities, you of course need to start with his production. Through the first four weeks of the season, Donnell is averaging 7.75 targets for 6.25 catches, 59 yards and one touchdown per game. It is a little early to extrapolate it out, but if we did we get 100 catches for 944 yards and 16 touchdowns. While he almost certainly won’t keep up that pace, it does go to show just how good he’s been through the first quarter of the season. As it stands, his per game fantasy totals place him in the top five tight ends, which is definitely nothing to sneeze at.

Another great thing about his young season is that he has been involved on a consistent basis. In all four games on the year he has had at least 6 targets, five receptions, and 45 yards. Considering how bad the Giants’ offense was for the first few weeks that is pretty impressive. Part of the reason is the quick hitting scheme Ben McAdoo has installed. Another reason is the sometimes questionable play of the offensive line when asked to pass block. Without much time for a play to develop, Eli has been forced to look for a quick outlet over the middle of the field, which is exactly where Donnell has been.

When you look at Donnell himself, another big plus has to be his size. I find it hard to believe that he was once a quarterback since he is bigger than any quarterback currently in the NFL. Maybe he was just a late bloomer! At 6’6” and 265 pounds, he definitely has the size to be a full time tight end who can help block in the running game as well as go out on routes. It is also reported that he has a very strong work ethic and is willing to do what it takes to improve his game. An attitude like that is going to win the coaches over to his side and help keep him on the field.

The Bad: Every once in a while we get players who come out of nowhere and turn into something great. However, the vast majority of the time the players who become great actually had something in their past to hint at their ability. They were a top recruit to a major program, they had a great combine performance, they were drafted highly or just something to show somewhere along the line they were on the radar. Are there exceptions to this? Of course, but they are extremely rare. Looking at Donnell’s history, there isn’t anything which even hints at him being at the level he has been at for the last few weeks. Is he that very rare exception or is he bound to come crashing back to reality?

From a physical standpoint (other than his size), he isn’t very impressive. The only numbers available are from his pro-day, which are normally a little better than those done at the combine. Looking through the list, a 4.91 second time in the 40 yard dash would have put him second to last for tight ends at the combine in 2014. His shuttle run was about the same level and while his three cone drill and vertical jumps were slightly better, they were just middle of the pack. If you roll it all together, you get a player who is slower, lacks burst and is less agile than almost everyone else at the position with okay ability to go up and make a leaping catch. That means separation is going to be limited to the space between his body and his hands, which is evidenced by his rather limited yards after the catch given the number of receptions he has made this year.

The other concerning factor for me is the lack of big plays from Donnell. Yes, he has been scoring touchdowns inside the red zone, but he isn’t a big play threat by any stretch of the imagination. He isn’t going to line up out wide or even in the slot. He is almost exclusively an inline tight end who works over the middle of the field. His season long catch is 23 yards and I don’t know if he will get much over that this season. Yes, I realize Jimmy Graham’s current long is also 23 yards, but I think we can all agree he is pretty likely to pass that point sometime soon. Donnell’s lack of explosiveness likely means five receptions for 60 yards is going to be a very common stat line for Donnell. While that is a very solid performance, it means his ceiling is going to be very touchdown based and without a score he’s going to be middle of the pack at a crowded fantasy position.

The Ugly Truth: It is very difficult to get a good read on what to expect from Donnell. On one hand, you have the high end production through the first four weeks of the season combined with his unquestioned role as the starter and every down tight end. On the other hand you have limited athletic ability, no past track record of success and a pace of production which is bound to slow down. He isn’t going to reach the 100 receptions, 944 yards nor the 16 touchdowns his current stats extrapolate out to. I don’t know of anyone who thinks he will, but what will he be?

Over the past three seasons, the top tight end for the Giants has averaged nearly 47 receptions, 584 yards and 4.3 touchdowns for the season. Thanks in part to the new system and Donnell’s hot start, I think he is going to surpass those numbers by a fairly significant margin. If we split the difference between his current pace and the historical production of his position, we are looking at 74 catches for 764 yards and ten scores – that seems reasonable for the most part given his current production. I don’t think the touchdowns will reach double digits, but even if you knock a few of those off we are talking about a middle-to-back end TE1 in PPR leagues.

There is one other piece of the puzzle which has me a little concerned, though. At the current point in time, the Giants have Victor Cruz and Rueben Randle. Every other pass catcher of note is injured. What is going to happen with Odell Beckham Jr starts to see some playing time? Beckham is a dynamic talent and an explosive playmaker who the Giants are going to want to get involved once he is healthy. I have a feeling his production is mostly going to come at least partially out of Donnell’s share of the pie. Unlike Donnell, Beckham has the skills to catch a pass over the middle and turn it into a major gain. The Giants would be foolish not to take advantage of that.

Long term there are also question marks for Donnell. Players with average or below average athleticism tend to be replaced when the opportunity arises. The only reason the Giants didn’t address the position in the draft or in free agency is they were expecting the athletic Robinson to step up to the plate. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Giants draft a more dynamic tight end in the near future in hopes of capitalizing on the mismatches like the Saints, Broncos and so many others have done. Donnell just doesn’t have that kind of upside for an NFL team.

Final Verdict: He’s started great this season and I expect him to finish the season as a middle or back end TE1. However, his production could easily taper off to high end TE2 levels as the season goes and I question his long term value after this season. If you can sell him at TE1 prices, I would go for it due to the long term concerns.

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jacob feldman