The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1. My 12-team, non-PPR league has a $100 cap with three-year player contracts. I have two good running back starters with Montee Ball ($12/2 years) and Donald Brown ($11/1 year), as well as Toby Gerhart ($17/3 years), Bernard Pierce ($1/2 years) and Ben Tate ($5/3 years). Bishop Sankey is a free agent and the winning bid gets him on a one-year contract – is he worth more than three years of Tate, two years of Pierce or three years of Gerhart? – Chuck in DC
If I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again (and again, and again, and again) – running back is the most important position in a non-PPR setting. So even though you’re constrained somewhat by your cap situation, it behooves you to acquire as much ball carrier talent as possible, within reason. Given your current corps of players at the position, this rings even more true.
[inlinead]Despite the off-season hype Montee Ball has been a disappointment this year, averaging a mere 3.4 YPC despite Denver’s explosive offense. Perhaps more importantly, the touchdowns we all expected to come simply haven’t, as he has but one score through three games. I’m no general manager, but I have to wonder if the Denver brass has begun to regret not re-signing the productive and dependable Knowshon Moreno.
Continuing, I’m a big fan of Ben Tate’s skills, but he needs to be on the field to utilize them. Through four weeks he has all of six carries, and as they say, “you can’t make the club from the tub.” This has more than likely forced you to spot-start the underwhelming trio of Toby Gerhart, Bernard Pierce and Donald Brown, all of whom have performed at a subpar level.
So even though you’d only have Titans running back Bishop Sankey for a year, and even though he’s technically not even the starter yet I’d absolutely pick him up at the expense of any of your backs not named Ball or Tate. He’s more naturally talented than your other backs, and truth be told he really doesn’t have any more question marks either. As the season drags on, it wouldn’t shock me at all to see him slotting in as your second best ball carrier.
2. I’m trying to pick up one guy for next year in my 12-team league. Given our passing touchdowns are worth six points, who do you like better between Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater? – Nick in LA
Thus far in 2014 very little has gone to script in the NFL (and fantasy) universe. Star players have been either underperforming (or worse), while relative unknowns have taken the league by force. Even the plans to effectively redshirt first-round quarterbacks Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater were scrapped after a mere three weeks, be it due to injury (Matt Cassel) or just general ineptitude (Chad Henne).
This duo, previously presumed to represent more of long-term stashes, has now been thrust into the spotlight. Granted we only have one week’s worth of data with which to judge them, but so far the stage doesn’t seem too big for either. Bridgewater led his Vikings to a win over the Falcons, while Bortles kept things close for a while before ultimately succumbing to the Philip Rivers-led Chargers.
So with so little in terms of a means of separating the two, I’m ultimately going to use measurables and team makeup as tiebreakers. Bortles is bigger, stronger, has more natural arm talent and showed in college that he can move the team using his legs. I also like what the Jaguars did in the draft, placing an emphasis on the skill positions. So while I do like Bridgewater, the combination of these factors would cause me to go with Bortles – however, if you have other deadweight on your roster, I’d attempt to make room for them both.
3. I’m stuck on what to do with Jordan Cameron, DeSean Jackson and Torrey Smith. I’m still a contending team in my 10-man PPR league, but the problem is I’m shallow at running back and pretty deep at WR. Greg Olsen is holding down the fort for me pretty well at tight end, hence, I’d like to collect value from Cameron. Do you have any recommendations on what to do with those players? I may be forced to drop someone in a few weeks due to by issues, so obviously trading is a priority, either two-for-one or perhaps some picks. – Travis in DC
As readers of my weekly Tuesday Transactions series know, I believe there’s more to the stock market that is dynasty football than buying low and selling high. There exists a significant grey area between those two extremes, and not every player can fit either mold that easily. Put another way, sometimes buying high beats buying higher, and selling low beats selling lower.
Your trio of trade candidates, receivers Torrey Smith and DeSean Jackson, as well as tight end Jordan Cameron, would be definitive “sell lows” right now. Be it due to injury (Cameron), ineffectiveness (Smith) or both (Jackson), owners of this trio of players have yet to receive return upon their investment in 2014. But does that mean it’s time to cut bait?
To be honest, I wouldn’t advocate selling any of these players, but if I had to pick one it would be Jackson. Though I’m a firm believer in his talent, a fit with the weak-armed Kirk Cousins is a match made in hell. To that point, outside of a fluky 81-yard touchdown, D-Jax has only been able to corral six of Cousins’ 71 completions for a paltry 64 yards. The return of the strong-armed Robert Griffin would help, but at this point it’s fair to wonder if he’s a square peg in the round hole that is coach Jay Gruden’s offense. Though it could wind up biting you in the long run, selling Jackson, along with Cameron, for a Doug Martin-type running back might be the best move for you.
To be clear, I’m still keeping the faith with both Cameron and Smith. The former simply got hurt, and watched fellow pass catcher Andrew Hawkins soak up the short targets. With Smith, I just can’t ignore the three prior years of data in favor of a four-game sample size. Though I know you already know this, you simply won’t get any type of commensurate return if you bail now.
4. In my 12-team PPR league I have an offer of receiving Matthew Stafford for Jeremy Maclin, EJ Manuel and a third round pick. I’m weak at quarterback and deep at receiver, and as such I’m inclined to accept. What do you think? – Richard in NJ
Detroit’s Matt Stafford is indeed one of the top signal calling assets in fantasy football, and currently sits as 2014’s overall QB5. With that said, the next nine quarterbacks are all within four points of his weekly average, prompting me to reiterate one of my fantasy football tenets – quarterbacks aren’t that valuable in a smaller league format. I’m not a huge fan of Philly receiver Jeremy Maclin (I think we saw the Eagles and quarterback Nick Foles exposed a bit when playing against the first good defense they faced all year), but it’s impossible to argue he’s not worth more than all but a tiny handful of fantasy signal callers. If you want to make this deal, your trade partner should be on the “plus” end of the offer, not you.
5. I’m tired of CJ Spiller. He has been disappointing and frustrating ever since I drafted him tenth overall in our half-PPR start-up draft before the 2013 season. What kind of value should I be expecting to get from him right now? I have always been bad at comparing the value of rookie draft picks to players. – Dan in MN
I can’t blame you terribly for losing your patience with perennial tease CJ Spiller. The Buffalo coaching staff seemingly refuses to let him operate in space, and ageless wonder Fred Jackson is evidently the Highlander of the NFL. With that said, it’s not as if it’s all bad news – Spiller is still receiving 15.5 weekly touches and currently stands as the half-PPR RB21. Perhaps more importantly, he’s receiving 61.9% of the carries between he and F-Jax, and the Bills are #13 run-heaviest team in the league. It’s also my opinion the presence of struggling signal caller EJ Manuel was a detriment to the offense as a whole, and the switch to journeyman Kyle Orton represents a decided upgrade. I’d wait to see what Spiller can do with Orton under center before you try to unload him, but if you want to make an immediate move I suggest you target a late first round pick.
Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27
[ad5]
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Justin Jefferson Or A Bundle Of Draft Picks? - April 23, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Is Kendre Miller Valued Unfairly? - April 17, 2024
- Forgotten Dynasty Veterans: Bottom Tier - April 9, 2024
