Tuesday Transactions: Week Four (Love the One You’re With)

Eric Hardter Posted On September 30, 2014

ivory

Dynasty football is undoubtedly a marathon, not a sprint. With that said, in-season roster management is still every bit as critical as in a standard re-draft format, and arguably even more so given the potential long-term ramifications. As such, this weekly piece is here to provide you with a dozen moves it might just behoove you to make.

Continuing, these transactions will be broken down into four categories: players you should buy low, sell high, buy high and sell low. The first two are self explanatory and follow the typical stock market analogy, which is that you should pounce when the market fluctuates in your favor – if you can get the most bang for your buck or scoop up the metaphorical penny stocks who have room to grow, it could be in your best interest to do so. Conversely, the latter two categories represent a contradictory stance, and some might even consider them “desperation” moves – however, it’s my belief that buying high beats buying higher, and selling low is preferable to selling even lower.

Before I dispense my advice though, I want to provide one final disclaimer – these opinions are my own. If you’re higher or lower on any of the players mentioned below you should absolutely stick to your guns. With that said, I believe there’s also enough of a sample size thus far in the season where we can begin to diverge from our off-season assessments.

In the interest of transparency, here were my week two suggestions:
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Buy Low: Rod Streater, Doug Martin and Marques Colston

Sell High: Lamar Miller, Andrew Hawkins and Mohamed Sanu

Buy High: Emmanuel Sanders, Victor Cruz and Lorenzo Taliaferro

Sell Low: Bobby Rainey, Rueben Randle and Dexter McCluster

Martin (14-40-1, 2-16-0) led the Bucs committee and received a goal-line touch while Colston turned ten targets into five catches for 50 yards. Miller (12-64-2, 2-3-0) had another solid week in Miami’s demolition of Oakland, with the Dolphins entering a bye in week five. Cruz (6-108-0) led the G-Men in receiving while receiving 10 targets, while an inefficient Taliaferro (15-58-1) nevertheless found the end zone. Rainey (4-2-0, 1-16-0) predictably settled into the lesser half of the Tampa committee, Randle (8-89-0) showed signs of life and McCluster (2-1-0) was once again out-touched by his backfield mates. Streater remained sidelined by a foot injury, while Hawkins, Sanu and Sanders were on bye.

With nearly one-fifth (six) of the league’s teams on bye in week four, I’m going to do things a little differently this week. Instead of the usual categories, I’ll instead shift my focus to players who, if they’re on your roster, should remain there. Instead of buying and selling, these are players who should cause you to remember the sage words of one Kenny Rogers – “you got to know when to hold ‘em.”

Continuing, I’m talking about guys who might not have received a lot of off-season love, and in some instances weren’t even on the fantasy radar. Given the sometimes slow-moving mechanizations of dynasty football, their respective trade values more than likely don’t reflect their box-score output. Put a different way, in all likelihood no one is going to offer you a trade that’s worth your while – you’re simply better off riding the lightning and “loving the ones you’re with.”

Let’s get started!

1. Geno Smith, QB NYJ – Stop me if you heard this one before, but I remain a firm believer in the Jets’ sophomore signal collar. Lost in New York’s 1-3 record, as well as Smith’s continuing propensity for making the big mistake at the wrong time, are the following: his completions are up 4.5%, his touchdown-to-interception ratio is 1.4 times better, he’s averaging 40 more passing yards per game and his QB Rating (if you believe in such things) is up 8.6 points. It hasn’t translated into wins, but the Jets have been in every game.

Unfortunately, the uncertainty surrounding Smith’s job masks his real value, which has been mid-to-high-end QB2 production (14.92 PPG). However, Coach Rex Ryan has said he’s sticking with Smith, and the sledding gets easier the rest of the way. You’re only going to get a lottery ticket in return anyhow, so in my opinion it’s prudent to stand pat.

2. Chris Ivory, RB NYJ – Joining Smith on this list is backfield mate Ivory. Ivory’s value was depressed in the off-season due to the signing of the “flashier” Chris Johnson. Despite this, all Ivory’s done is run circles around his more ballyhooed positional cohort to the tune of 274 yards (6^th best in the league) at a clip of 5.5 YPC (t-4^th in the league). He’s even catching the ball more (seven receptions for 71 yards), though he suffered two brutal drops in Sunday’s game. Coach Ryan has all but admitted Ivory is his best ball-carrying option, and a Stevan Ridley circa 2012 type upside is attainable.

3. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB IND – Previously in this space I’ve spoken to the definition of inefficiency incarnate that is Trent Richardson. Meanwhile Bradshaw has essentially functioned as his polar opposite, turning a mere 12 weekly touches into 17.4 weekly PPR points. Though his receiving scores (four in four games) are sure to tail off, he remains the red-zone back of choice in the Colts’ explosive offense. Simply put he’s providing RB1-level statistics, but you won’t approach that on the open market.

4. Justin Forsett, RB BAL – See Bradshaw above. Though Forsett’s path to playing time has been a bit more circuitous (Ray Rice’s suspension and Bernard Pierce’s injury/inefficiency), his 15.0 PPR PPG shows nearly as well. Forsett has also been the lead back in the Ravens’ committee, accumulating 42% of Baltimore’s running back carries and 94% of the receptions by ball carriers. His 5.8 YPC leads the league, while his 16 receptions are fifth amongst all running backs. You’ll never be able to convince your league-mates that his worth matches his production, so you’re better served rolling him out as your weekly RB2 or FLEX.

5. Eddie Royal, WR SD – Yes, we saw this from Royal when he started the 2013 season with five touchdowns in San Diego’s first two games. With that said, Royal’s 58 receiving YPG easily trump last year’s 42 YPG, and he’s averaging an additional 1.1 receptions per game. The scoring is likely aberrational, but Royal leads the team in targets (29) and has kept breakout candidate Ladarius Green on the bench. Much like with Smith above, he’s a better lottery ticket than anything you’d likely receive in return.

6. James Jones, WR OAK – Prior empirical evidence has suggested that when the Green Bay Packers decide to let a wide receiver walk, his best days were likely behind him. With a quarter of the season in the books Jones has defied that convention wisdom by virtue of averaging a weekly line of 5.3-68-0.5, good for 15.1 points in a PPR setting. These numbers have easily paced the Oakland pass-catching corps, as Jones has sequestered 21.9% of the team’s receptions, 31.5% of the receiving yards and 40% of the receiving touchdowns – no other pass catcher is within nine receptions or 124 yards of Jones’ totals. You’re more than likely not going to be able to replicate these high-end PPR WR2 numbers with whatever returns you receive via trade.

7. Larry Donnell, TE NYG – Saving the best for last, Donnell is arguably the crown jewel of this entire list. Seemingly coming out of nowhere (he had all of three receptions in 2013 and seven in the 2014 preseason), Donnell has turned himself into a top positional option and the Giants’ best red-zone threat. No, he won’t replicate his week four performance where he secured three scores, but he doesn’t need to – his worst game of the season (week three) produced six receptions for 45 yards, meaning his fantasy floor (to date) is still a robust 10.5 PPR points, or high-end TE2 numbers. In my opinion the dynasty collective simply missed on the young tight end – given his current output, as well as the fact he has quarterback Eli Manning’s trust, there’s no way I’m a seller at his current market value.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.