Dynasty Stock Market: Projecting the Top Five

As part of our continued coverage and analysis of player value in dynasty leagues, the mid-season dynasty mock drafts will be starting soon. I was asked last to predict what the top five might look like, based on our January ADP data, which led to a thought provoking Twitter discussion about player value and the top factors that can play a role in determining said value.

Among the elements that play the largest role in determining player value are:

• Recent on-field performance
• Age
• Injury history
• Position on team depth chart
• Off-field issues

Before I share my predictions for our first set of in-season mocks, let’s look at our most recent data, which is from August. I’ll list the top five players from each position, also noting any players I expect to fall from the top five once in-season mocks begin next week.

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Quarterback

I don’t expect many changes at the quarterback position. The top three of Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Matthew Stafford will certainly remain among the top five drafted. While Drew Brees and Cam Newton have both been solid thus far, each have posted just one top 12 scoring week. I expect Newton’s age and past performance (he’s never finished a season outside of the top five fantasy quarterbacks) keeps him on this list, but I can’t say the same for Brees, who loses his spot to a younger and, for now at least, more consistent option. The fact Brees could be the sixth or even seventh quarterback taken in our in-season mocks just shows the depth of the position and why the late round quarterback strategy of late has become so popular.

Running Back

The running back position is often the one among the four main fantasy positions you can expect the most change from year to year, or even month to month. It’s a major surprise then when looking at the lack of change expected from August until the in-season drafts. While the order will certainly undergo some changes, I don’t see any of these five backs falling out of the top five in next week’s mock draft series, unless dynasty owners are ultra-concerned about Jamaal Charles ankle injury. The only player who might steal his spot is Cowboys’ running back DeMarco Murray, who is off to a great start as the current RB1 in PPR leagues.

Wide Receiver

With the exception of the six-month period when Josh Gordon crashed the party, this quintet has consistently been viewed as the top five wide receivers in dynasty leagues for well over a year. Nothing will change after just a few games this year, either. AJ Green and Dez Bryant have already thrown up some clunker games, though Green’s was due to injury, and Demaryius Thomas is currently outside of WR3 territory. The player among the five who owners seemed most concerned about entering the season, Julio Jones, is the current top scoring wide receiver in PPR leagues and has yet to disappoint his owners.

Tight End

Like the quarterbacks, the top three tight ends will definitely hold their spot. In fact, it’s safe to say we could see the exact same order of Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski and Julius Thomas, though I expect Gronkowski and Thomas to both rise among all players drafted. Both of the Jordans- Cameron and Reed– have dealt with injuries that could cause them to fall down the ranks. The issue is none of the top scoring tight ends this season is young enough or stable enough to be considered as a top five dynasty option. Players like Niles Paul and Larry Donnell are among the current top ten tight ends and both are nice stories, but neither are top five players at their position. It’s clear to me, as of now, Reed is not being valued among the top five players at the tight end position either, so his name won’t be among this list, but I’ll predict Cameron hangs onto his spot, just barely.

With the players losing dynasty value now established, they need to be replaced in the top five of each position. We lost one quarterback (Brees) and one tight end (Reed). As you’ll notice, that is surprisingly little turnaround considering it’s been nearly two months since the last set of dynasty ADP mocks were conducted, especially when factoring in all of the numerous injuries we’ve seen through three weeks this year.

At quarterback, I see two options to replace Brees among the top five and they are Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson. Ryan is currently the QB2 and led all quarterbacks in scoring in the season’s opening week. Obviously, Ryan has one of the best wide receiver duos in football to throw to in Julio Jones and Roddy White. At 29, Ryan is not old for a quarterback, but he does have a few years on Wilson, which some owners could use as a tiebreaker. Wilson, at 25 years old, is already viewed as one of the most safe and steady quarterbacks out there. He rarely makes a bad decision and has developed a reputation for being an excellent leader. While he hasn’t delivered the numbers of Ryan and lacks the weapons of the Falcons’, my perception is that dynasty owners value Wilson over Ryan, so he’ll be the choice, with Ryan and Brees battling for the sixth spot.

The fifth tight end spot is a little more clear cut, thanks to some early season issues for some top young players at the position. The Bengals’ Tyler Eifert suffered a gruesome elbow injury, which will sideline him for the next several weeks and in San Diego, Ladarius Green is hardly getting the snaps we all expected he would. Antonio Gates is not ready to go away yet, so the passing of the torch will be delayed a bit longer. Almost by default, that leaves Eagles second year man Zach Ertz. It’s always nice to have more shares of the Chip Kelly Eagles’ offense and Ertz already has two top 12 weeks before a clunker last week. At only 23 and already viewed as an important part of one of the league’s top offenses, Ertz value is on the rise and he crashes the top five tight end ranks.

With the top five at each position established, it’s time to predict a specific order for the upcoming in-season mock draft series. As usual, let’s begin with the quarterbacks.

Quarterback

Luck and Rodgers had similar ADPs all off-season and considering the start Luck is off to, it’s no surprise to see him claim the top spot. Although Rodgers has two down games already, he still claims the runner up position here. Stafford’s fantasy production has declined each of the first three weeks, but pairing him with Calvin Johnson makes him a safe option in the top five. I mentioned Newton’s start to the season earlier and his past performance keeps him here, especially with his new top receiver, Kelvin Benjamin. Wilson grabs Brees’ former position and rounds out the top five quarterbacks.

Running Back

While there was no change to the names in the top five, the order does see some major changes. The injury to Charles’ ankle, which led to a pair of great games from Knile Davis, pushes Charles down to fifth. Eagles’ back LeSean McCoy hangs on to the top spot, just barely over Le’Veon Bell, who is off to a fantastic start after a pre-season arrest, which had fantasy owners concerned. Giovani Bernard also had his owners worried, but that was more about the arrival of Jeremy Hill in the Bengals’ backfield. Bernard has shown he doesn’t need a full workload to be an effective fantasy back and he holds down the third spot here. Yet another sophomore back is Eddie Lacy of the Packers, but he is not enjoying the same start to the season. Instead, his has been filled with concussions and poor performances against some of the top run defenses in the league. Expect Lacy to bounce back and maintain his dynasty value.

Wide Receiver

Again, the names on the list remain the same, but the order is changed. Johnson is off to another great start and should be the top drafted receiver, as he was in August. After that, the main change is Jones moving from WR5 to WR3 following his awesome start to the season. As a result, Green falls down to five, swapping places with Jones. It seems a little nutty to see Green fifth on the list, but this entire list is basically interchangeable when talking dynasty value.

Tight End

I already mentioned the top three tight ends and they have obviously done enough this season to maintain their high draft status. Again, don’t be surprised if both Gronkowski and Thomas are drafted earlier now than they were in August. Ertz not only joins the list of the top five tight ends, but even makes it to the TE4 spot, ahead of the injured Cameron.

If you are interested in participating in the upcoming dynasty mock drafts, which help us identify each player’s ADP, just complete this form. Drafts will start early next week and will hopefully be done in just a few days.

Follow @RyanMc23 on Twitter

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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