The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1. I’m in a ten-team standard scoring dynasty league. I have Alshon Jeffery, Cordarrelle Patterson, Randall Cobb, Michael Crabtree, Mike Evans, Justin Hunter and Odell Beckham at receiver, and Eddie Lacy, Zac Stacy, Lamar Miller, Trent Richardson, Ahmad Bradshaw and Christine Michael at running back. I’m worried about my running back depth, and have been offered Montee Ball, Reggie Bush and Victor Cruz for Patterson, Stacy, and Beckham. What are your thoughts on this deal, or should I look to make a different deal? – Spencer in UT
As I’ve mentioned numerous times, a league’s format is quite possibly the biggest determinant as to whether or not a trade makes sense. Sure, player value is important in a vacuum, but such things are subject to fluctuation depending on the scope of the league. And as I’ve mentioned previously, a non-PPR setting can significantly flip the script with regards to general player perception.
[inlinead]In a standard format it’s my belief running backs become the most critical players, even despite the lack of longevity at the position. As such I’m not surprised you’re looking to improve your ball-carrying core, although truth be told I don’t think your depth is of any huge concern right now. Green Bay’s Eddie Lacy has faced a murderer’s row of run defenses, Zac Stacy is a fine RB2 and Ahmad Bradshaw has seemingly found the fountain of youth – adding in anything you can get from Trent Richardson and Lamar Miller and I’d venture you have one of the deeper groups in the league.
With that said, beauty is always in the eye of the beholder, and if you’re looking for an upgrade the proposed deal isn’t bad. Both Montee Ball and Reggie Bush could start for you and I’m a big believer in a Victor Cruz resurgence. You’d be giving up a pair of enticing receiving prospects in Cordarrelle Patterson and Odell Beckham, but such can be the price when you’re buying running backs in leagues where receptions don’t matter.
However, I’m also a believer that nearly every initial offer is ripe for countering. As such I’d look to see if you could include Green Bay receiver Randall Cobb instead of Patterson, with the rest of the deal remaining intact. This would still provide you with the upgrade at running back you desire, while also ridding yourself of a player (Cobb) whose future is clouded by his contract status.
2. What do I do with Adrian Peterson in a non-PPR league? – Glenn in Alberta
That’s truly the million-dollar question, isn’t it? As I recently stated on the DLF Podcast, I’m going to put aside my personal opinions about Vikings running back Adrian Peterson because they have about as much to do with his fantasy future as does the consistency of my dog’s morning constitutional. I’ve never heard of any “point-per-moral” leagues, so let’s stick to the fantasy impact.
When he’s on the field Peterson is one of the league’s most dynamic running backs. As mentioned in the answer above, his worth can then only be intensified due to your non-PPR format. So unless you have severely limited roster space, there’s absolutely no reason to drop him outright.
Honestly I think you just need to ride this one out. It’s rumored Peterson is looking to bump up his day in court, as the Vikings have said they won’t reinstate the troubled running back until his legal woes are behind him. If he’s able to do so and escape without any serious punishment, it’s likely we’ll see “All Day” again at some point this season.
If you did want to make a trade, I wouldn’t settle for anything less than what you perceive to be a late first-round pick, or early second at the latest. As we’ve seen with the recent suspension reduction of Cleveland receiver Josh Gordon, sometimes it pays off to simply trust in the talent, and let the outside stuff sort itself out. In the interim I’d try to scoop up Matt Asiata if you can, but otherwise I wouldn’t make any panicky moves just yet.
3. In my 16-team, PPR dynasty league I have Zach Ertz and Jordan Cameron at tight end. Should I consider moving one of them, or could I get away with starting one at tight end and the other at the FLEX position? – Dylan in PA
I believe one of the biggest misconceptions in fantasy football is that you can have “too much talent” at any position (other than with quarterbacks in shallow leagues). Taking it one step further, the funniest trade offers I’ve ever received were almost always centered around trade partners who were trying to “help me get rid of players I didn’t need.” In short, depth can dry up quick, and unless you’re convinced you can survive a fantasy apocalypse-type situation, there shouldn’t be any additional impetus to swing a deal.
Playing Devil’s Advocate though, deeper leagues such as your 16-team format definitively make your start-able bench depth more valuable. If you have two of dynasty football’s top-ten tight ends in Cleveland’s Jordan Cameron and Philly’s Zach Ertz, it stands to reason other teams in your league will be hurting at the position. Therefore if you can receive a commensurate value in return, it might be worth the gamble to halve your tight end portfolio.
Though your suggestion of starting both players is an intriguing one, Ertz and Cameron are only averaging 9.4 and 4.3 PPR points per game respectively. While I obviously expect the latter to improve given that Cameron has been afflicted by a shoulder injury, I still wouldn’t be comfortable relying on above-average production (amongst the RB/WR/TE positions) every week. In my opinion there simply aren’t enough tight ends who transcend the position well enough to be considered FLEX-worthy.
So if those are your options, I’d prefer making a trade over starting both players every week. But remember, the “you don’t need him” argument is nothing more than a red herring, and it’s my belief you’re the one in a position of strength. Trading either player should net you a RB2/WR2-caliber player in return, and hopefully a lesser-tier tight end (i.e. Heath Miller or Jared Cook) as well to ensure you don’t go from having extensive depth to none at all.
4. In my 16-team, PPR league I’m in rebuilding mode looking to compete next season. I have recently been offered Cordarrelle Patterson straight up for Josh Gordon. I’m not as high on Patterson as most but wasn’t sure if this is a fair trade given the risk with Gordon? – Eddie in NC
As I mentioned is question two above, unless you truly believe a player has exhausted any chance of future production (a la Aaron Hernandez), it pays to trust in the talent. And yes, Josh Gordon is essentially the poster child of luck right now, as none among us could have possibly predicted a lessening of his sentence based upon a new drug policy. But often times the ends ultimately justify the means and in a few short months we’ll once again witness the dynamic Brown terrorizing opposing defensive backs.
Given that, I think it’s fair to wipe a decent portion of his slate clean. He’ll remain a suspension risk until proven otherwise, but he remains a young man who still has the potential to “see the light” as it relates to staying on the straight and narrow. Given his abilities and especially since you haven’t sold him yet, that’s more than enough incentive for me to hang on a bit longer.
Continuing, though Cordarrelle Patterson obviously has room to grow, I don’t believe he’s in Gordon’s stratosphere as a receiver. He’s a fantastic runner and a sublime kick returner, but those aren’t the type of talents you should use when evaluating pass catchers. If/when he refines his route running Patterson will likely ascend to the upper echelon of receivers, but he still has a lot of work to do.
Concluding, I don’t think this trade really makes sense given your desire to engage in the rebuilding process. You’re not playing for this year anyway and I’d argue that as long as he’s focusing on the grass on the field instead of the grass in the dime bag, Gordon will provide a lot more for your 2015 box scores than will CP. The only way I’d do this deal is if you really believe Gordon will become riskier than he is now – if not I’d much rather stand pat.
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