The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter Posted On September 17, 2014

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Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1. In my 12-team PPR league I have John Brown, and another owner wants him for a future pick. Considering we start 3-4 receivers, what round pick do you think I can ask for? He has already offered me a late second. – Ronnie in Denmark

Seemingly off the radar prior to preseason action, Arizona receiver John Brown can be considered one of the summer’s biggest risers. Though he was initially slated to serve as a complementary piece in coach Bruce Arians’ offense, Brown quickly surpassed Ted Ginn en route to becoming the team’s third receiver. This surge was mirrored by his monthly ADP ranks, as is shown in the following table:

Month	ADP
April	N/A
May	220.2
June	192.0
July	169.3
August	159.7

Brown wasn’t even on the radar prior to the NFL Draft, at which point he was considered a late-round flier at best. Multiple June puff pieces, often comparing Brown to previous Arians talents such as Antonio Brown and TY Hilton, resulted in another ADP bump, which continued through the summer. Ultimately, according to our final ADP data, Brown was a 14^th round pick and the 32^nd rookie selected.

Now playing roughly 60% of the Cardinals’ plays, Brown has begun the season modestly. He’s turned nine targets into five receptions and 57 yards, to go along with a week one score. This type of output will likely stand as his rookie norm, as the ascending Michael Floyd and venerable Larry Fitzgerald reside firmly ahead of him in the pecking order.

However, 2015 could signal a turning point for the young receiver, as there’s no way Fitz returns at his gargantuan $23.6 million cap hit. If Fitzgerald leaves, Brown could very well join Floyd in the starting lineup, functioning as an every-down player. Combining that with his skill-set, I don’t think I’d sell for a late second round pick. To me that’s the definition of a lottery ticket, and you might already have a winning one in your hand – unless he’s willing to bump it to a first rounder (unlikely), I’d rather stand pat.

2. I just lost Ray Rice and have Bernard Pierce, but could not grab Justin Forsett who was too expensive to pick up. I have an offer of Lorenzo Taliaferro and Mike Wallace for Brandon Marshall. I also have Keenan Allen, TY Hilton, and Antonio Brown as my other top receivers. Is the trade worth taking? It seems like it weakens me significantly this year simply for a lottery ticket. – Anthony in CO

[inlinead]The fallout from former Raven Ray Rice’s release will continue to be felt in Baltimore. In what would have been the final week of his initial suspension, I believe we instead got a week two glimpse into how the rest of their 2014 season will shake out. And given that, I’d strongly advise you to stand pat.

Bernard Pierce, who you already own, was the nominal starter and toted the rock 22 times, adding an additional two targets and one reception in the passing game. His backup, Justin Forsett, supported Pierce with 12 total touches, including four receptions. No other running back, including rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro, saw a carry despite the run-heavy game flow.

So even though neither Pierce nor Forsett presents any sort of upper echelon talent, they seem to be the driver and co-pilot of the offensive backfield. Taliaferro might get some run as the year drags on, but will likely need an injury to truly flourish. Adding Mike Wallace is a fairly weak attempt to sweeten the trade, and it’s clear to me your trade partner is transparently preying on your insecurities following the Rice debacle.

Continuing, as was shown Sunday night, even a hobbled Brandon Marshall remains one of the game’s top receiving threats. Given his current viability, as well as a contract that will keep him in Chicago with quarterback Jay Cutler for the foreseeable future, Marshall remains an elite dynasty asset. If the other owner in your league truly covets him, he’ll need to offer more than fifty cents on the dollar.

3. In a 12-team PPR league with 0.2 points-per-carry, would you trade Terrance West or Bishop Sankey plus a 2015 first round pick for Doug Martin? – acclizal in the Ask DLF Forum

To be honest I was never a huge fan of Cleveland ball carrier Terrance West. Yes, he’s big and relatively fast, but in my opinion his college game film left much to be desired. I don’t believe he played with a physicality befitting his size, and listeners of the DLF Podcast know I’ll never miss a chance to use my Terrance “East to” West nickname, referencing his frustrating tendency to bounce it outside far too often.

Though he started off well against Pittsburgh’s porous run defense week one, West regressed in a week two contest versus the Saints to the tune of 3.6 YPC. It’s far too early to make any sweeping generalizations on rookies, but West hasn’t looked nearly as fluid or explosive as backfield mate and fellow freshman Isaiah Crowell. I don’t believe he’s shown enough to hold off Ben Tate when he returns from injury.

On the other hand, West has clearly shown more than the Titans’ Bishop Sankey, who’s currently stuck behind mediocre talents in Shonn Greene and Dexter McCluster. With that said, he’s a more fluid pass catcher than West, and wasn’t drafted as the first running back overall to sit for long. Long term, I’d rather have Sankey over West.

Given that, as well as my continued affinity for Tampa Bay’s Doug Martin, I love the idea of buying here. With that said, I think the price of West plus a first round pick is a bit too much, and would open would rather part with West and a second, or West and a first for Martin and a second. I think you’ll easily be setting yourself up with the best player in the trade, and not paying a premium to do it.

4. What is RGIII worth right now in a superflex league with six points for all touchdowns? He didn’t look very good when he was healthy and I don’t see how he can come back from that injury in 5-8 weeks. Does he even get his job back afterward? Would you offer RGIII for Josh McCown, as well as two second round picks and a third round pick? – flexcapacitor in the Ask DLF Forum

It’s a tough time to be a supporter of Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III. Fighting through the aftermath of an ACL injury suffered during the 2012 playoffs, in 2013 RGIII looked nothing like the dynamic signal caller who won the coveted offensive rookie of the year award. These woes continued under new head coach Jay Gruden, as Griffin turned in mediocre performances during both the 2014 preseason and season opener.

Though it’s the true definition of a small sample size, RGIII looked to be on the rebound early on versus the hapless Jaguars in week two, with 38 yards passing on three attempts and 22 yards rushing on two attempts. However, following his gruesome ankle dislocation, backup Kirk Cousins went on to reap the benefits of Washington’s cupcake feast. With that said, it’s arguable this could be the high-water mark for Cousins (especially in superflex and 2QB leagues), and I’d even advocate selling high if possible.

Make no mistake about it, Cousins is a relatively ordinary talent, and he performed even worse than Griffin last year. Even if Gruden prefers a pocket passer, it’s my belief RGIII can still be groomed into such a player. Though he might not reap the same statistical benefits as he did as a true read-option quarterback, his mobility should still provide a higher floor than most other signal callers.

Given the totality of the previous paragraph I do expect RGIII to retain his job upon returning from injury, and as such I wouldn’t sell him for spare parts. Even though he’s hit his fair share of bumps in the road, his talent remains undeniable. I’d much rather bank on him returning to his previously elite form than hoping a trio of lesser draft picks can yield players who will present the same possibility.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.