Rookie Report Card: Week Two
I’ve decided to put my own spin on the concept of a rookie report card. Going forward, the Rookie Report Card will be exactly what it sounds like, a report card.
Not only will I cover my expectations for the player coming into the league and how he’s performed at the NFL level to this point, I’ll actually give him a grade in three categories. Those categories are performance to date, 2014 potential and long term upside. Each week I’ll cover at least two rookies and try to always include the biggest performers from that particular week.
The series continues with a closer look at Sammy Watkins and Jeremy Hill.
Sammy Watkins, WR BUF
Week Two Stats: eight receptions, 117 yards, one touchdown
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At this point, everybody has heard time and again how dynamic Watkins is. In college, he consistently showed elite route running skills and displayed world class speed and agility. When put together with his incredibly dependable hands and breathtaking open field moves after the catch, it’s easy to see why most dynasty owners (and NFL executives) were enamored with the Clemson standout.
After dazzling throughout training camp, Watkins suffered a rib injury in the Bills’ third preseason game which forced him to miss valuable practice time and much of the rest of the preseason. The injury lingered into the season opener, where he was held to only three catches on just four targets for 31 yards against the Bears. Coming into this week versus Miami, he was finally able to fully participate in practice and it showed on Sunday.
As healthy as he’d been in weeks, Watkins was a big part of Buffalo’s game plan and obviously the “go-to” receiver for the Bills. He was targeted 11 times in the game which was more than any other receiver on the team – that doesn’t tell the entire story about how big his part in the offense has already become and how he impacted the game, however.
The easiest way to identify a team’s number one receiver is to look at third down targets. It shows who the offensive coaches are designing plays for and who the quarterback trusts. Of Watkins’ 11 targets, six came on third down. He hauled in five of those passes for 71 yards and converted four first downs and the other for a 12-yard touchdown.
I know what you’re probably thinking. Just watching Watkins play will tell you he’s the top receiving threat on the team, right? Well, that’s true. But seeing it in the numbers means the coaching staff in Buffalo and quarterback E.J. Manuel see it that way as well, which can be rare for a rookie receiver and huge for his fantasy upside in his first year and beyond.
Watching Watkins on Sunday was eye opening. Although it was apparent he wasn’t yet 100% healthy, his ribs didn’t seem to affect his route running, quickness or burst and didn’t keep him from making plays in traffic. He showed all the things that made him one of the top prospects coming out of college and perhaps more importantly, head coach Doug Marrone showed that he has full confidence in his young playmaker to be the Bills’ number one option in the passing game.
Due to him being such a big part of the game plan and having so much success in week two, NFL defenses will no doubt adjust to Watkins so he’ll have to show he can handle more attention from opposing defenses going forward. Because of that as well as the limitations that are put on him due to his quarterback and the lack of a playmaker opposite him, he may prove to be a bit inconsistent for fantasy owners as a rookie so anything more than WR3 production shouldn’t be expected for the rest of 2014. With that said, the sky is the limit going forward for Watkins.
When dynasty owners chose Watkins with the top selection of nearly every rookie draft this past off-season, the expectation was that he’d develop into a WR1 within a couple years. After Sunday, most dynasty owners that spent such valuable picks on him would likely say he’s on the fast-track to realizing that potential and I’d have to agree.
| Rookie Report Card | ||
| Player: Sammy Watkins | ||
| Performance To Date | 2014 Potential | Long Term Upside |
| B | B | A+ |
Jeremy Hill, RB CIN
Week Two Stats: 15 carries, 74 yards, one rushing touchdown, two receptions, 22 yards
Coming out of college, I wasn’t a very big fan of Hill. Although he has very good size at 6’1” and 235 pounds, he didn’t strike me as a good “between the tackles runner” and often looked overmatched in short yardage situations. Although he displayed some good quickness for a player of his size while at LSU, he didn’t run behind his pads well while on campus and lacked a third gear to be an effective runner on the perimeter.
Then came the scouting combine.
Like many, I hoped to see explosiveness and agility from Hill but was thoroughly disappointed. He ran a sluggish 40-yard dash in 4.66 seconds and posted a very un-athletic 29-inch vertical. All that combined with the off the field problems Hill encountered while in college made me look other directions when looking for backfield talent in rookie drafts throughout the offseason.
Then Hill was drafted in the second round by the Bengals to replace BenJarvus Green-Ellis as the thunder to Giovani Bernard’s lightning. After considering the amount of carries Green-Ellis got for Cincinnati a year ago (220), there was the potential for Hill to be in a situation that demanded the attention of dynasty owners but I still wasn’t biting.
After that, Hill sparkled in the preseason, rushing for 190 yards on 41 carries and averaging 4.6 yards per carry, albeit against mostly second and third string defenders. I was still steadfast in my belief that Hill was nothing more than a rotational back.
When he was trusted to touch the ball only four times in week one against the Ravens, I wasn’t surprised – then he got called upon to handle the rock 17 times on Sunday, posting 96 yards from scrimmage and a score.
I’ll admit it. Hill looked good in week two. He ran hard, made good cuts between the tackles and displayed excellent vision which was a weakness of his while at LSU. He also contributed in the passing game, catching both of his targets, and held up in pass protection when asked to do so. With that said, the Bengals faced Atlanta’s Swiss-cheese defense that was coming off a game in week one against the Saints where they gave up 119 yards rushing and three touchdowns on 26 carries to running backs.
In the short term, it looks like the Bengals plan to use Hill as a change-of-pace back to Bernard. Most likely, that means that if they are ahead in the game and everything is going to plan, he’ll get between 12 and 15 carries which is exactly what happened in week two. It also means that in a close, competitive game, they’ll likely depend on their top back. The Bengals clearly plan to feature Bernard, who got 32 touches in week two for 169 yards from scrimmage as well as a touchdown of his own, and that’s unlikely to change without an injury. I fully expect to see Hill get less than ten touches more often than not for the rest of 2014.
Overall, although I’m more optimistic about Hill’s upside than I was after the combine in February, I still have trepidation when considering his potential in the long haul as a featured runner. When I watch him play, it’s difficult to forget his lack of physicality and inability to make defenders miss in the open field in college, not to mention the subpar vision he displayed and uselessness in the passing game on Saturdays.
Two months ago, I would have graded Hill’s long term upside as a C-. After seeing most of his pre-season carries and each of his touches in week two, I’m willing to up that grade slightly. But I still don’t see him as anything more than a rotational tailback with a fantasy upside of a weekly flex play in 12-team leagues.
| Rookie Report Card | ||
| Player: Jeremy Hill | ||
| Performance To Date | 2014 Potential | Long Term Upside |
| B | C+ | C+ |
Follow me on Twitter: @dmeylor22
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