Blue Bayou

Ty Miller

blue

Now that two weeks of the 2014 NFL season are in the books, we can begin to see trends on play calling and personnel usage.  This is one advantage we do not have during the off-season when we are speculating on how an offense will perform or how the addition of a player or coach can affect the team going forward.  In the months leading up to the preseason, the NFL Draft is watched closely, along with training camp and OTA reports.  Then we finally get to the preseason, which gives us a much better view of the big picture.  Towards the end of the preseason, one particular Texans running back was getting a lot of hype, mainly due to Arian Foster’s absence on the field with a hamstring strain.  The player’s name is Jonathan Grimes and while he showed some flash at the end of last season, I found it hard to buy into him this year.  The primary reason?  A rookie named Alfred Blue.

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Arian Foster’s running style is very smooth and he has the rare ability to plant his foot in the ground and get up field instantly.  He tends to avoid major punishment by sliding under defenders before they get a direct hit on him.  You hardly ever see Foster take a hit that makes you jump up off the couch.  The issue Foster has is usually self-inflicted hamstring strains.  Perhaps it’s caused by his aforementioned ability to cut up field with one step, but you can bank on at least one game where Foster will come out holding the back of his leg.  Now, don’t get me wrong, I love Arian Foster.  His nose for the end zone is unmatched in today’s NFL, and he is just plain fun to watch when he has the ball.  His durability is rightfully questioned after a massive workload over a five year span, though.  This is information that has already been well examined, but I wanted to drive home the point of Foster being used extensively over the past few years.

bluechartThrough two games in 2014, Foster has 59 touches and many are questioning if he’ll be able to remain healthy.  Recently, head coach Bill O’Brien was asked about this concern.  His response gives reason to believe as a Foster owner, you should be excited but cautious.  O’Brien stated the Texans will be monitoring Foster’s carries and plan on distributing the ball around to the other backs – this doesn’t mean Arian Foster will get less than his usual 20+ carries per game, so don’t panic.  Bill O’Brien went on to say the Texans are playing to win and he knows Foster is the centerpiece.  He praised Foster as being unlike any other back he’s ever coached with his size, vision and ability to go north-south so quickly.

Something else to take away from those comments is the Texans know they need Foster to be healthy.  The primary insurance for him is rookie running back Alfred Blue and we saw proof of this in week two, when he received 11 carries to Jonathan Grimes’ three.  Blue also did much more with his opportunities than Grimes, gaining 40 yards to Grimes’ nine.  Sure, it’s only one game and perhaps Blue earned more playing time due to his special teams’ performance in week one which led to a Texans touchdown.  Regardless, all indications point to Alfred Blue having value going forward.  He isn’t necessarily a player you’ll be able to start while Arian Foster is healthy, but he is well worth a stash as we said after week one and in our predictions piece.  I also spotlighted Alfred Blue in a previous post-draft article here:  AFC South Winners and Losers

Blue is a name the fantasy community is becoming much more familiar with now that he has earned the backup role to Foster.  In fact, I saw a tweet saying Alfred Blue outperformed Darren McFadden in week two.  Comments like that will catch fellow owners’ attention and you may have some competition in grabbing Blue, sooner than later.  I have even seen owners naming their teams after Alfred Blue.  When this happens, you know his price is rising.  There is a lot to be desired in owning Blue.  Sitting at the top of the list is the Texans have been the run-heaviest offense through two weeks (66% run plays).  The next closest team is the Buffalo Bills at 58% – that’s promising because more rushing attempts per game while Foster is on a carry count, will offer more opportunities for Blue to showcase his skills.  Standing at 6’2 225 lbs, Blue can dish out some destruction, all the while possessing good receiving abilities and vision.

As an Arian Foster owner, you need to have Alfred Blue on your team.  The high rate at which Houston is running ball is great while it lasts for Foster’s fantasy value but any good owner knows you need a backup plan in case your stud hits the ground and doesn’t get up.  The perfect example is Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis.  One goes down, the other fills the role nicely.  The Houston backfield could potentially be startling similar to what we’re seeing in Kansas City, if Foster suffers an injury.  The last thing you want to have to do is fight your league mates for your running back’s handcuff.  There is still a chance some owners in your league believe Jonathan Grimes is the player to be had.  For full disclosure, I am not a fortune teller and I cannot see the future, but all signs point to Alfred Blue being the top insurance policy player for Arian Foster.  He is definitely worth spending a good amount of your FAAB on.  If someone already owns him, sending out a trade offer for him would be wise.  In the unfortunate event Arian Foster’s hamstring acts up again, Alfred Blue will be extremely difficult to obtain.  Get Blue now and don’t let someone else have leverage over you.

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