Dynasty Stock Market: The Ups and Downs of Dynasty Rankings

Ryan McDowell Posted On September 11, 2014

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The NFL’s opening week has come and gone and we’ve seen a lot happen in a short amount of time. Each week, I dedicate some time to looking over my rankings in an effort to ensure the product I’m putting out matches my current thought process, as well as actions I’d actually make in my own leagues.

No matter how often I view my rankings, I always find something I want to change. While this could be attributed to the fact that my mind is constantly on this game we love, I think much of the cause is how many ways, and how quickly player value an be affected in dynasty leagues. Obviously, their play on the field can positively or negatively impact a player’s value, but off the field actions can as well…as we’ve witnessed this week.

Let’s look at some of the players who are rising and falling in my rankings after week one, along with some of the reasons why.

Risers

Matt Ryan, QB ATL
Rankings Move: QB10 to QB7

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan had a huge week one in a shootout with the New Orleans Saints, passing for nearly 500 yards, along with three scores. While Ryan remains in the same tier, the fact that he gets to throw to receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones every week is reason to move him ahead of the likes of Robert Griffin III and others.
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Isaiah Crowell, RB CLE
Ranking Move: RB55 to RB28

I’ve waffled quite a bit on Browns undrafted rookie running back Isaiah Crowell and I regret that. Prior to the draft, I ranked him as my top running back based on talent alone. I knew he wouldn’t be the top back taken, or even close, though I was surprised when he was left on the board. He had some ups and downs in the pre-season and I eventually chose to let him tumble down my rankings prior to the season opener. After watching him in action in a meaningful game, I’m fully back on the bandwagon. I still expect Crowell to play second fiddle to fellow rookie Terrance West, but he’s earned a role in the offense and his value is clearly on the rise.

Knowshon Moreno, RB MIA
Ranking Move: RB39 to RB30

This is one we really should’ve seen coming. After breaking out as part of one of the best offenses in history a season ago, it was fair to expect regression from running back Knowshon Moreno. That doesn’t mean he should’ve lost nearly all value, as we saw this off-season. After showing up to Dolphins camp out of shape and battling an injury, Moreno’s dynasty value fell off the cliff. He’s back and looks to be claiming the lead role in the South Beach committee attack, aided by Lamar Miller. Again, I don’t see Moreno matching his 2013 numbers, but he’s still a solid fantasy asset and is moving up my rankings board.

Mark Ingram, RB NO
Ranking Move: RB 41 to RB31

It seems that many were predicting this as the long-awaited breakout season for the Saints Mark Ingram, and those folks may just be right. Ingram led the Saints in rushing with 60 yards and two touchdowns on just 13 carries. The argument has been for the past few years that it’s difficult to predict which Saints’ back will have the big game. With Darren Sproles now in Philadelphia, there is one less mouth to feed. While Sproles rarely carried the ball, he did take potential snaps from Ingram and others.

Josh Gordon, WR CLE
Rankings Move: WR38 to WR27

The talks between the players’ union and the NFL owners over a potential new drug policy is still ongoing, but the speculation that an agreement could lead to the suspension of Browns wide receiver Josh Gordon and other currently suspended players is all it takes to turn the needle on Gordon’s dynasty value. Gordon’s sooner than expected return would obviously cause dynasty owners to perk up, but there are still risks to consider, which limits his long-term upside and keep him in the mid-twenties of my updated rankings.

Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR
Rankings Move: WR34 to WR26

I probably have underrated Carolina wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin from the start, mostly based on his age, which seems silly when I watch him making catch after impressive catch for the Panthers, and that’s without start quarterback Cam Newton. I can’t wait to see these two work together, which could cause Benjamin to climb even higher in my dynasty ranks.

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR MIN
Rankings Move: WR10 to WR7

Michael Floyd, WR ARI
Rankings Move: WR12 to WR8

Brandin Cooks, WR NOS
Rankings Move: WR14 to WR12

Here we have a trio who were all ranked very high prior to week one and all three had very impressive games to begin their season. While none of the three moved up a large number of spots, three or four spots when players are already ranked so highly is a big deal. Both Cordarrelle Patterson and Michael Floyd fit the profile of the NFL’s and fantasy football’s WR1 and although Saints’ rookie Brandin Cooks is far from it, he’s looking to be a favorite of quarterback Drew Brees already.

Brian Quick, WR STL
Rankings Move: WR81 to WR60

As you can tell by my prior ranking of Rams’ wide receiver Brian Quick, I haven’t been a believer at all. While I’m still not completely sold, I do think he can be the top receiving option for a bad St. Louis Rams team this year and the comparison to Vincent Jackson, who was a slow NFL starter as well, has me intrigued.

Allen Hurns, WR JAX
Rankings Move: Unranked to WR54

Another undrafted rookie, Jaguars’ receiver Allen Hurns scored a pair of touchdown as well and shocked the fantasy community. The dynasty community was already well aware of Hurns, who’d played well in pre-season with fellow receivers Cecil Shorts and Allen Robinson missing time with injuries, but few expected this type of performance. Hurns quickly drew comparisons to Frisman Jackson and Kevin Ogletree, receivers who’ve had breakout week one games in past seasons, and did little the rest of the season. I think that is going too far. Hurns should remain a solid receiving option for the Jaguars, though I don’t see him as a weekly starting option. Considering he should’ve been ranked prior to the season opener, he makes a huge jump into the mid-fifties.

Dwayne Allen, TE IND
Rankings Move: TE17 to TE14

The second and third tier of tight ends is so deep and overflowing with young, high-upside players that it can be difficult to make any changes to rankings. Colts’ tight end Dwayne Allen shows that he deserves a bump up though, and even moved up into a higher tier. With Coby Fleener continuing to prove he doesn’t belong on fantasy rosters, it’s Allen who is forming the strong bond with one of the top quarterbacks in the game, which will only help him for years to come. Allen is another I can see rising even more in the coming weeks.

Antonio Gates, TE SD
Rankings Move: TE32 to TE27

I admit I had veteran tight end Antonio Gates ranked too low prior to the season. With the expected breakout of Ladarius Green, Gates had little dynasty value. In fact, in many of our twenty round dynasty mocks, Gates was going undrafted. Gates looked strong to open the season though and, for the most part, kept Green on the bench. While this is a separate perplexing issue, Gates is showing he is still worthy of not only a roster spot, but a starting fantasy tight end role. He has little to no long-term upside, which caps his value.

Fallers

Trent Richardson, RB IND
Rankings Move: RB8 to RB13

Okay, I’ve given up.

I’ve been a long time supporter of Trent Richardson. Following his rookie season, which was a good one, he was my top ranked running back and I even swayed from my wide receiver heavy ways and took him with the top overall pick on a dynasty startup draft. What’s happened since then has been both unexplained and painfully obvious at the same time. Richardson is not the player we thought he was entering the NFL. Cleveland evidently figured that out relatively quickly and cut their losses. It’s time for dynasty owners to do the same.

Devonta Freeman, RB ATL
Rankings Move: RB24 to RB33

I overranked rookie running back Devonta Freeman prior to the season, plain and simple. Ranking Freeman as an RB2 was going a bit far and has been adjusted. Freeman was not one of my favorite back during the pre-draft process. In fact, I don’t think he was in my top five, but the landing spot in Atlanta and the Steven Jackson injury caused me to inflate his value a bit too much. I still expect Freeman to start some games for the Falcons this year, which I think is adequately reflected in his new ranking.

Bernard Pierce, RB BAL
Rankings Move: RB27 to RB35

With former starter Ray Rice suspended for the season’s two opening games, Bernard Pierce had the starting job handed to him on a silver platter and he literally fumbled it away. After losing a fumble, Pierce was benched and scatback Justin Forsett claimed a much larger role, if not the starting job going forward. While it’s fair to assume Pierce works his way back atop the depth chart, he has not looked good in limited action the past two seasons.

Darren McFadden, RB OAK
Rankings Move: RB43 to RB45

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB OAK
Rankings Move: RB45 to RB55

The Raiders surprisingly kept Darren McFadden this off-season and then pulled a Raider move, adding big name running back Maurice Jones-Drew to form an aging, injury riddled running back duo. Jones-Drew claimed the job entering the season, but looked slow in week one. McFadden spelled him, but was not any better. Expect Latavius Murray to start earning some carries soon as the bottom falls out on the value of these two veterans.

Ray Rice, RB FA
Rankings Move: RB60 to RB75

I won’t rehash the details of the incident involving Ray Rice, but instead will focus on his dynasty value. As you can imagine, it’s almost nil. Considering Rice is currently indefinitely suspended, we should not expect Rice to see the field again this season. Rice was already far down my running back rankings, but tumbles even further and is now a safe drop in most dynasty formats.

Odell Beckham, Jr., WR NYG
Rankings Move: WR25 to WR35

Giants’ receiver Odell Beckham, Jr. is another rookie who I simply ranked too high based on my prior valuation of him. Heading into the NFL Draft, Beckham was not among my top ten rookies, yet once the Giants showed faith in him by selecting him in the middle of the first round, I became hypnotized by his draft status, which is a common mistake dynasty owners make. With a hamstring injury keeping Beckham out of action, Beckham’s valuing is waning.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.