Twitter Observations: Week One
Each week I will be walking through the Twitterverse extracting some of the best commentary from trusted fantasy football minds. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of ranging from trends, stats or analysis.
Giovani Bernard, RB CIN
During the preseason there was a lot of talk and speculation around the Bengals backfield situation. While Giovani Bernard was the clear lead running back, many expected to see Jeremy Hill take on a decent amount of work including goal line carries. Week one provided a different picture as Mike Woellert (@Mike_Woellert) tweeted, “Jeremy Hill on the field for ten snaps compared to Gio Bernard’s 57.” Evan Silva (@evansilva) also remarked, “Was that the offense Bengals will run all year? If so, that’s great news for Gio Bernard. He’s basically playing a Brian Westbrookian role.”
One week does not a season make, but the early results for those who invested in Bernard were great. I personally did not see anyone predict more than 300 touches for Bernard, but he could definitely make a push to get there if healthy. Against the Ravens, the Bengals only scored one touchdown and Bernard was not the beneficiary. The best advice for non-Gio owners in fantasy is to make a potential move for him while other running backs grabbed the kickoff weekend hype.
Marcus Wheaton, WR PIT
Injury and opportunity practically made Marcus Wheaton’s rookie year non-existent. Coming into year two the Steeler wide receiver was set to take on the number two role opposite star Antonio Brown. The reviews after his first game were all positive with Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) remarking, “Markus Wheaton caught 6 of 7 targets despite a 19.1 aDOT. That’s the most impressive line you’ll see this weekend. Buy. Buy. Buy.” Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) also commented, “Markus Wheaton connections on perimeter fades worked out yesterday. All those attempts in preseason to get on same page worked out week one.” John Paulsen (@4for4_John) provided historical insight stating, “In the last four seasons, PIT’s WR2 has averaged 65-848-4.5.”
[inlinead]You never want to overreact to one game, but you also don’t want to wait for a player’s value to skyrocket before attempting to buy. Wheaton is locked into the number two receiver spot and will normally see softer coverage with Brown demanding the most attention. He has weekly WR2 upside but will likely find himself in the WR3 territory. His floor is also likely higher than other similar options.
Percy Harvin, WR SEA
Harvin is a receiver with the “injury prone” label on a team that rarely throws the ball. Fantasy analysts were all over the board on him coming into the season, though most who loved his upside likely hedged with a “BUT” at some point. Week one presented a lot of optimism for owners as Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) remarked, “11 touches, 100 yards for Percy Harvin. They used him extremely well. Good sign.” Evan Silva (@evansilva) also commented that, “Percy Harvin will be fantasy monster if Seahawks continue to employ him like last night. Q: Will his body hold up on that heavy a workload?”
Harvin has always impressed when healthy, but between migraines, ankle and hip injuries he is normally a walking question mark – this is what makes him an interesting player because if you could guarantee him playing all 16 games he is a surefire top ten wide receiver pick. Currently DLF rankers have him in the mid-40s in dynasty and that ranking clearly has injury risk and team situation baked in. Personally I tend to believe that to win championships you need to take chances and assume risks of top talents. I only own Harvin in approximately a quarter of my leagues, though I plan on increasing that starting tomorrow.
Allen Hurns, WR JAX
If you are going back through all your preseason notes, articles and rankings you likely had to search deep for Allen Hurns. Coming out of Miami as an undrafted free agent you normally do not pencil these types of guys into your rosters. But Hurns did have a solid preseason and if he did not play for Jacksonville maybe more would have paid attention. Some instant reactions to his stellar week one included Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) tweeting, “96% of dust yet to settle for week 2 WW reports, but Hurns’ preseason portended a Colston-esque instant breakout.” (Sigmund is a sharp guy and portended means indication or foreshadow so you don’t have to get out your dictionary). Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad) also commented, “Hurns has become the second receiver in the last 30 years to top 100 yards and 2 TDs in his rookie debut. (Joins Anquan Boldin).”
The main problem with Hurns from a dynasty perspective was highlighted by Jaron Foster (@jfoster10) noting, “Thought I might have a week to buy low on Hurns. Of course, now all his owners are going to ridiculously overvalue him,” while Nick Whalen (@_NickWhalen) stated, “The Allen Hurns hype could get out of control.” If you are thinking of acquiring his services, now is not the time. Cecil Shorts will be back and the targets will regress. If by chance you are the proud owner of this shiny new toy, field all offers and don’t be wary of pulling the trigger. Hurns may get more looks on a team that needs playmakers, but he still will be contending with fellow rookies Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson and the likelihood of him posting another top ten week this season is unlikely.
Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson, RB IND
Trent Richardson was on a short leash with fantasy owners after last season and in week one he did nothing to silence the naysayers. Ahmad Bradshaw received countless praise throughout the game including this comment from Dan Graziano (@DanGrazinaoESPN), “Ahmad Bradshaw has had three foot surgeries since I started typing this and he’s still a better player than Trent Richardson.” Josh Moore (@4for4_Josh) stated, “Ahmad Bradshaw should be starting next week,” and Rumford Johnny (@Rumford Johnny) exclaimed, “Bradshaw is so much more dangerous after the catch than TRich. Only a matter of time.”
Richardson had nine touches to Bradshaw’s eight, so the game plan for week one had them in a 50/50 split essentially. In dynasty leagues, Bradshaw should be relatively cheap to acquire if you are looking for a piece that may pay off this year. He is a 28-year old running back with an injury history and an unrestricted free agent in 2015, so value beyond this season is minimal. Richardson on the other hand is a young running back that refuses to show any promise. The DLF staff currently has him as the 16th overall running back in dynasty, but if you could acquire the likes of Carlos Hyde, Bishop Sankey or Jordan Matthews to name a few I would be dealing.
Parting Thought
I had to include this last tweet from Ty Miller (@Ty_In_StL), “Dont be the guy who loved a player in August, didn’t see what you expected in week one, then dropped him only to regret it later.” Great piece of advice, take a breath and don’t let one week completely alter months of planning and preparation.
I follow all of the great writers and fantasy nuts in this article and recommend you do the same.
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Luke practically owns the Twitter machine at @FFGator
- Weekly Twitter Observations - April 2, 2016
- Weekly Twitter Observations - March 26, 2016
- Weekly Twitter Observations - March 11, 2016
