Instant Analysis: Ray Rice released by the Ravens

In the wake of video footage from inside the New Jersey casino elevator today, which clearly depicts the brutal act of violence committed by Ray Rice against his then-fiance Janay Rice, the Baltimore Ravens have released the three-time Pro Bowl running back.  The decision by the Ravens front office precipitated rapidly as the video was released by TMZ mere hours before word of his termination hit the news cycle.   In addition to being released, it has also been announced that the NFL has suspended Rice indefinitely, perhaps to preemptively prevent speculation about whether another team might scoop him up.

While the news is shocking from both a real-life and fantasy football perspective, for our purposes here, we’ll exclusively discuss the fantasy football impact going forward.   Dynasty owners will have a tough decision to make with regards to Rice as well as what’s left of the Baltimore backfield in Bernard Pierce, journeyman Justin Forsett, and rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro. We’ll do our best to advise our readers given what we currently know, which isn’t much, so please keep a close eye on the situation as it continues to develop.

Ray Rice 

This was supposed to be a renaissance year for the dynamo running back from Rutgers.  Gary Kubiak’s runner-friendly zone blocking scheme was to reinvigorate the former fantasy darling and catapult him back to being the elite player he was for several years.  With the exception of Aaron Hernandez and Michael Vick, it is difficult to recall such a rapid fall from grace not related to an injury.  What we’re left with at this point in time is an unfortunately similar situation: NFL player in his prime faces uncertain future due to potentially serious criminal charges.  As was the case in the two previous scenarios, it is safe to assume the worst here.  So as not to mince words: Ray Rice has likely played his last down of NFL football. 

For dynasty owners who roster Rice and whose optimism was subsequently crushed this afternoon, the safe thing to do at this point is to keep him on your team if you have a deep enough bench to support it.  It wouldn’t be wise to cut bait entirely until the situation is totally resolved but if your league has short benches, feel free to act definitively and move on as soon as the waiver wire opens for business this week.  If the rumor of today’s video release being never before seen by the league or the team is true, it’s plausible the legal system could get re-involved with the case if the evidence is also new to the pertinent authorities.  Though it’s mostly speculative right now, Ray Rice gaining back any sort of fantasy value in the future seems extremely unlikely.

Bernard Pierce

The third year back out of Temple got the first crack at the starting gig yesterday against the Cincinnati Bengals.  Blessed with the size (6-0, 230) and speed (4.45 40 yard dash) to be a three-down NFL runner, Pierce was underwhelming in his debut for the solo job.   His six carries for 14 yards and a paltry 2.3 yards-per-carry average combined with a second quarter fumble led to his quick exit from the game.   He isn’t as explosive as Rice was capable of being but with his size, experience and a friendly scheme, he should have at least been effective.  And unfortunately for Pierce and his fantasy owners, his replacement was.  It’s likely he will get another shot at the starting gig next week against a pretty porous Steelers run defense but the leash will be short.  Owners should hold tight but don’t insert him into a starting lineup until further notice.

Justin Forsett 

Forsett is the quintessential journeyman as the Ravens are his fifth team in seven seasons.  Though he is already 28 (almost 29) years old, there should still be plenty of tread left on his tires due to a career in which he has only carried the ball 358 times.   In relief of the aforementioned Pierce yesterday, Forsett was effective with 84 total yards and a touchdown on 16 touches.  All things being equal, he was the best running back on the Baltimore roster yesterday and if things continue in such a manner, he’ll be the Ravens back to own this season.  One thing he clearly offers which Pierce does not is above-average pass catching ability and in a Kubiak offense, it could be the tie-breaker.

He’s probably on your league’s waiver wire right now and you need to go get him, especially if you’re a Rice and/or Pierce owner. He’s not the bona fide starter yet, but he won’t be around once he is, so do what it takes to add him to your team during this waiver cycle.  If it costs you up to 50 or 60% of your blind-bid allowance, so be it.   This is the type of move that could set your team up nicely for a strong run at a league championship.

Lorenzo Taliaferro

Taliaferro, a rookie fourth round selection from Coastal Carolina is the third running back currently on the Ravens roster.  Taliaferro was somewhat of a preseason darling as he earned rave reviews from head coach John Harbaugh during training camp.  Cut in the same mold (6-0, 225) as Bernard Pierce, he could be the best long-term solution on the roster right now.  He got a few snaps on Sunday, but didn’t get any touches.  Fitzgerald Toussaint,was the last running back on the roster, but he was cut today.

Taliaferro is a player upon which to keep a close eye and worthy of a deep dynasty stash.  If you can snag him and stash him on a taxi squad, even better.  After all, Kubiak has a stellar track record of molding under-the-radar rookies into future NFL stars.

All in all, the Ravens backfield is a pretty crappy situation to be involved with as it seems destined to become a committee and thus an endless source of frustration for fantasy owners.  However, if you’re not willing to take a chance on these guys, someone else in your league surely is and you don’t want them reaping the potential benefits.  As stated before, keep a close eye on the situation as it continues to evolve and stay tuned to DLF for the best dynasty advice on the internet.

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