DLF’s Annual Preseason Predictions: Volume One

Ken Kelly

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This is one of our favorite times of the year. After working hard to produce content all off-season, we can finally look forward to the 2014 Fantasy Football season in our beloved dynasty leagues – that means it’s time for our annual fantasy predictions. We gathered some opinions from the DLF Team and compiled this list of predictions for the upcoming fantasy year. The categories were as follows:

Fantasy MVP
Fantasy Rookie of the Year
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player
Fantasy Sleeper
Best Dynasty Buy
Best Dynasty Sell
Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year 

We’ll cover the first four categories today and the second set tomorrow.  Otherwise, this was going to be a 9,000 word novella.

Let’s get to it!

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Ken Kelly

Fantasy MVP: Jimmy Graham, TE NO

I gave a lot of consideration to Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning as it’s highly possible all three end the season with the most points from their respective positions. However, the statistical advantage you get when you have Graham is like playing with an extra player every week. The point differential between Graham and everyone else (unless Rob Gronkowski bounces back) is just obscene and simply can’t be overstated.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR

He’s not the most talented or the best rookie long-term, but he’s going to be force fed the ball and have the best chance for immediate production amongst all rookies.

Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Brandon Marshall, WR CHI

Don’t get me wrong – Marshall is a flat out stud. However, there’s just no way I’d be spending a late first round or early second round pick in a start-up dynasty draft for a receiver of his age with a history of injuries and suspect behavior. While it’s true most of that may be behind him, I’m much more inclined to build around younger players, especially that early in a draft.

Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Roddy White, WR ATL

If you take his last five games after he was semi-recovered from his early season injury and extrapolated it over a 16-game season, he’d post 138 catches, 1,606 yards and six touchdowns. Now, that’s likely not going to happen and is a bit of wishful thinking, but his demise has been greatly exaggerated and I expect him to perform as a WR1 this season. When you look at drafts, I’d rather have something like Roddy White and Sammy Watkins than Brandon Marshall and Tyler Eifert.

Rob Shandler

Fantasy MVP:  Demaryius Thomas, WR DEN

Thomas is a physical marvel who can beat a defense in so many different ways.   He is remarkably consistent and is virtually guaranteed favorable matchups and route concepts thanks to Manning’s prowess at the line of scrimmage. With Eric Decker’s departure to New York and Wes Welker already having some serious injury concerns, Thomas should see even more targets from Manning in 2014.  Assuming he stays healthy, I see his floor as 95 catches, 1,450 yards, and 13 touchdowns.  Again, that’s his floor.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year:  Bishop Sankey, RB TEN

Though Sankey won’t be playing the featured role many envisioned in the Titans’ backfield, he will have plenty of opportunity to prove he deserves more touches than the rest.  Sankey will get a ton of work on various downs and distances as he proves he is a much more diverse weapon than Shonn Greene or Dexter McCluster.   He may not reach the 1,000 yard rushing milestone, but he easily could reach 45-50 catches in Ken Whisenhunt’s offense.

Most Overvalued Dynasty Player:  T.Y. Hilton, WR IND

Nobody can question his game changing ability as a deep threat in the Colts offense, but the team showed they understand he is more of a complementary weapon by bringing in talented veteran and rookie pass catchers.  Hilton will be more valuable to Andrew Luck while creating mismatches on the field than he will be to dynasty owners looking for a consistent WR2.

Most Undervalued Dynasty Player:  Eric Decker, WR NYJ

Very few people expect Decker to have the same kind of successes in New York as he had with Peyton Manning.  He will not receive the favorable matchups he did last season playing alongside Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Wes Welker, but it would be foolish to think Decker hasn’t developed under Manning’s tutelage to a point where he can uncover from even the highest quality defensive backs in the NFL.  He is a 27-year-old perfectly built WR1 with red zone ability who is guaranteed touches through his hefty salary.  Quarterback Geno Smith will be improved enough to support high volume.

Karl Safchick

Fantasy MVP: Adrian Peterson, RB MIN

The MVP is the player who will win you a championship this year. There’s one player being undervalued in dynasty drafts who can win you a championship and his name is Adrian Peterson. Sure he’s 29 years old, but he’s still the most talented running back in the game. This year, Peterson is playing for Norv Turner who will use him creatively.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Sammy Watkins, WR BUF

It’s almost always beneficial to bet on talent above situation. This year, it’s easy to decipher the most talented rookie as wide receiver Sammy Watkins is head and shoulders (not literally) above every other first year player. If still faced with the decision of which rookie to take at 1.01, don’t get cute. Watkins is the most talented receiver to come out of college since the 2011 draft.

Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR MIN

I’m tempted to quote my overrated player as a position since I’m still seeing people make the mistake of drafting quarterback early in fantasy drafts. I don’t think my DLF brethren will allow me to get away with fence sitting, though. My vote then goes to Cordarrelle Patterson. Not only is Patterson extremely raw, but he’s being drafted as if he’s a known commodity. In our August mock drafts, Patterson was selected in the second round each time.

Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Russell Wilson, QB SEA

Everyone is well aware of my long standing confusion of Alfred Morris‘ ADP. While I could go on about how he should be drafted higher, I’m going to give you someone being drafted even later. As I mentioned in the overvalued player section, I think quarterbacks get drafted too highly. If you wait on a quarterback, you need an alternative. Russell Wilson provides just that. Sure, the Seahawks don’t pass a ton, but they will in future years. Wilson is one of the best quarterbacks in the league and will only continue to improve.

Scott Peak

Fantasy MVP: Aaron Rodgers, QB GB

I love Eddie Lacy, but Rodgers is the king of Green Bay. The Packers have a favorable schedule for quarterbacks, especially in weeks 11 to 16. Rodgers will win a lot of titles for fantasy owners this year. 

Rookie of the Year: Bishop Sankey, RB TEN
I’m not a big fan of Sankey, but he should get a lot of touches in that offense. His workload leads to the most fantasy points for rookies this year.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Jordan Cameron, TE CLE
Concussions in 2012 and 2013. Long injury history. Questions at quarterback. Norv Turner no longer there. For the price, I’d rather acquire Travis Kelce or Dwayne Allen.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Jason Witten, TE DAL
Witten’s demise has been greatly exaggerated. This guy is tough as nails and his price tag is cheap relative to the production. Since 2008, Witten has finished as a top 10 tight end in fantasy every year and has four top five finishes. His ADP is as the TE15 – that’s stealing.

Jeff Haverlack

Fantasy MVP: Adrian Peterson, RB MIN

The offense is finally where it needs to be to give AD more space.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Jordan Matthews, WR PHI

The wide open offense combined with his size should provide for a lot of opportunities all over the field.

Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT

His 2014 schedule is ridiculously tough and I’m not intrigued by his running style.

Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Marvin Jones, WR CIN

He’s ridiculously athletic and plays across from A.J. Green.  He’s young, has good wheels and possesses great size.  I simply can’t believe he’s still flying under the radar.

Rob Leath

Fantasy MVP: LeSean McCoy, RB PHI

An all-purpose back on elite offense with a creative offensive head coach.  No need to get cute when it comes to the cream of the crop.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hill, RB CIN
BenJarvus Green-Ellis had over 200 touches last year and Hill is twice the runner he was.  He’s a double digit touchdown threat.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Pierre Garcon, WR WAS
More weapons in DC; targets will plummet and he may not even be featured player in passing offense.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Jarrett Boykin, WR GB
It is a deep receiving corps, but Boykin has flashed starter talent whether it is in Green Bay or elsewhere.
Nick Whalen
Fantasy MVP: Dez Bryant, WR DAL
Dallas will have the worst defense in the league, which means even more targets for Dez.
Rookie of the Year: Brandin Cooks, WR NO
He will be used all over the field and has a HOF quarterback throwing him the football.
Most Overrated Fantasy Player: Le’veon Bell, RB PIT
He averaged 3.5 YPC as a rookie and got a ton of touches due to a lack of competition. Now he’s a top seven dynasty running back? He will lose volume this year and with it a lot of his value. Plus he just had a DUI/drug bust, i’m staying far far away.
Most Undervalued Fantasy Player: Ben Tate, RB CLE
All off-season we heard about Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West, meanwhile Tate has fended them off easily. He’s a three down running back in a Shanahan run scheme, need I say more?
Jeff Miller

Fantasy MVP: Matt Forte, RB CHI

With a better offensive line, a healthy Jay Cutler and the whole offense having a full year in coach Marc Trestman’s system, I expect Forte to be the highest scoring position player in PPR leagues this season. It doesn’t hurt that he is a bigger, stronger guy than his main competition (Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy), making me feel better about his chances of playing all 16 games with a heavy workload.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Brandin Cooks, WR NO
 
Among all rookies, Cooks has by far the best combination of situation and skill to make a year one impact. The slight rookie figures to be a major part of this office from the get-go, filling both Darren Sproles’ old role and acting as the situation deep threat while Kenny Stills nurses his leg injury (and probably after he returns). Cooks stock has skyrocketed recently and for good reason.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR MIN
 
If you know anything about me, you knew this was coming. I have already written well over a thousand words written on Patterson, so I won’t rehash it all. Suffice it to say, I think he is the most overdrafted player in dynasty.

Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Golden Tate, WR DET
A WR2 at a WR4 price? Sign me up. Tate is 26, crazy efficient and the number two target in one of the most prolific passing offenses in the NFL. He is also across the field from Calvin Johnson, a player who demands double teams and/or safety help every play of every game. Despite this, he is the 47th WR off the board according to DLF’s ADP data. Our rankers are also luke warm, having let out a collective sigh while pegging him as the WR 36. Tate figures to be a safe PPR WR2 for at least the next three seasons.

James Simpson

Fantasy MVP: LeSean McCoy, RB PHI

He led the league in rushing attempts and rushing yards last year, but it was Jamaal Charles’ receiving statistics that made the difference in fantasy football. McCoy will be more involved in the Philadelphia passing game in 2014 and I think he continues to be the rushing leader. That being said, I wouldn’t argue against either of these two players.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Sammy Watkins, WR BUF

Sometimes it is wise to lower expectations for rookie receivers in their first year because it can take some time to adapt to the NFL. This is not one of those times. Watkins is as pro-ready as they come and is immediately the Bill’s best receiving threat. He will rack up the targets and yards.

Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR MIN

I love the kid, but when I look through the top 20-30 dynasty players, his name stands out as the most risky, unreliable and inconsistent. Yes, he is capable of the long exciting touchdowns, but can he be relied upon to produce every week? He is too much of a gamble at this point for me.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Arian Foster, RB HOU

One of the kings of consistency when he plays, I don’t believe this is the end for Foster. He’s only 27 years old and can give you two or three more years of top-five production. His preseason absence doesn’t bother me and I think he will be back vying for the top spot this year.

Eric Olinger

Fantasy MVP: LeSean McCoy, RB PHI

As impressive as last year’s stats were, I believe he will do better in 2014. A complete back in a system tailor fit for him. 

Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Kelvin Benjamin,WR CAR

Primed for a big time role on a team desperate for playmakers, Benjamin will have more opportunities than any other rookie to make a big time impact.

Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Rashad Jennings, RB NYG

I feel like I’ve beaten this dead horse long enough. I’m not a believer in Jennings in short term or long.

Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Roddy White, WR ATL

People were quick to jump off the bandwagon when he suffered his leg injury last year but he finished 2013 with a vengeance. He has a legitimate 2-3 years of low end WR1 / high end WR2 numbers left in the tank and he’s being criminally undervalued.

Leo Paciga

Fantasy MVP: Dez Bryant, WR DAL

Everyone is well aware of Bryant’s physical tools and his ability to dominate NFL defensive backs, but I’ll give you three more reasons why 2015 is the year of the “Dez.” First, it’s a contract year for the 25-year old Dallas wide receiver and, like it or not, there’s usually a little extra player motivation whenever an expiring contract is involved. Second, Scott Linehan is an offensive coordinator ripe with experience especially when it comes to handling an elite wide out in an explosive aerial attack. And lastly, the Dallas defense has more holes in it than a “Josh Shaw alibi” and should present plenty of opportunities for late comebacks and fourth quarter garbage points.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR

There are multiple factors which generally prevent rookie wide receivers from making a major splash during their initial seasons in the NFL. They’re so dependent on quarterback play and the speed, focus and precision required at the next level usually overwhelms first year wide outs. That said, I think Kelvin Benjamin will buck the trend and end up posting very good numbers during his rookie season. No, he’s not polished or precise, but he’s built a connection with Cam Newton this summer and he’s a massive target with just enough raw talent to be an offensive star, especially on a team starving for someone to fill that void.

Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: C.J. Spiller, RB BUF

I’ve been a card carrying member of the C.J. Spiller fan club since he first appeared on the NFL stage back in 2010. Every autumn, I’m held captive by the unbridled breakaway speed and the scintillating combination of vision and balance this former Clemson running back brings to the Buffalo backfield. Well, not this year……and not any longer. I’ve always preached talent over situation when it comes to dynasty fantasy football, but in this instance they’re tough to separate. Head coach Doug Marrone, and more specifically, offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett seem inept when it comes to crafting an offense capable of utilizing speed in open space. Throw in an inexperienced, ineffective quarterback (E.J. Manuel) and the fact that Spiller turns 28 before the start of the 2015 season and you’ve got a dynasty window closing rapidly on a player always on the fringe of “amazing.” By the time a new coaching staff is in place and the quarterback situation is ironed out, Spiller will have exhausted any dynasty value.

Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Torrey Smith, WR BAL

Is 2014 the year Torrey Smith takes the big step and moves up to the elite wide receiver tier?  He’ll begin his fourth season in the NFL as the focal point of Baltimore’s passing attack. We all know what Torrey Smith brings to the stadium on Sundays – great ball tracking skills and smooth effortless strides which translate into deceptively effective long speed. The question, however, remains…..can Torrey Smith become a dominant wide receiver all over the field?  I believe the answer is yes, and with a healthy Dennis Pitta and a crafty veteran like Steve Smith to help draw defensive attention, new OC Gary Kubiak will help elevate Smith’s game to the next level.

Ty Miller

Fantasy MVP: Jamaal Charles, RB KC

Jamaal Charles will repeat as the top dog in fantasy.  The offensive line woes are overblown in Kansas City, at least when it comes to Charles’ value.  He does a ton of damage via the passing game, so that’ll offset a weak offensive line.  I expect his touchdown totals to hit the 12-14 mark, too.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Bishop Sankey, RB TEN
Bishop Sankey’s usage in the preseason has people fading away from him, but they’ll regret that by week four.  He missed OTA’s and mini camp due to the collegiate graduation rules, but he’s getting up to speed quickly.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT
Le’Veon Bell is a back who relies on heavy usage to produce fantasy points.  Though he can catch, he isn’t explosive or elusive.  The argument against Zac Stacy is he is volume dependent and I think the same goes for Le’Veon Bell.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Jordy Nelson, WR GB
Jordy Nelson is a wide receiver who, before his new contract, was being disregarded by a vast majority of dynasty players who preferred Randall Cobb to Nelson.  Personally, I always like Nelson better despite him being a little older than Cobb.  He is Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target, he is a true WR1, and the narrative of Nelson being injury prone is a myth.  He still put up WR1 numbers without having Aaron Rodgers under center for seven games last year.  Just think about that.

Eric Hardter

Fantasy MVP : Jimmy Graham, TE NO

He won’t be the highest scoring player in fantasy football, but to me value is measured as the advantage gained above the mean.  Graham, along with tight end cohort Rob Gronkowski, are arguably the two biggest positional mismatches in the game.  Unlike Gronk, however, Graham rarely if ever misses time, and owners can gain the weekly advantage he provides all year long.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR

This is what happens when talent meets opportunity.  Since I don’t believe any of the rookie running backs are poised to function as this year’s Eddie Lacy, I’ll go with the 2014 version of Keenan Allen instead.  Benjamin is already Cam Newton’s top wide receiver target, and should threaten for over 100 targets in year one.

Most Overvalued Dynasty Player : Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT

You can find my expanded thoughts here, but in short there’s no way I’m paying top dollar for an inefficient ball carrier who will have significantly more competition than he did at any point in 2013.

Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Michael Crabtree, WR SF

A 26-year old potential PPR WR1 going in the fourth round as the overall WR21?  Sign me up.  I predict the “bromance” with Colin Kaepernick will be reignited and a slowly fading defense should bring SF out of the bottom barrel in terms of passing volume.

Jacob Feldman

Fantasy MVP – Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
I know he is 29 years old, but he isn’t slowing down. If you get him 40-50 catches in Norv Turner’s system on top of what he does on the ground he is going to have a very special year.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Carlos Hyde, RB SF
This is a bit of a long shot due to Frank Gore being around, but I think Hyde has the talent to be a RB1 if something does happen to Gore.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player : Cordarrelle Patterson, WR MIN
With an ADP in the middle to early second round, there isn’t anywhere for Patterson to go but down. He doesn’t have the ability to be like the elite WRs, so he’s already being drafted at his ceiling. With all of the question marks, it is time to hit the brakes a bit.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Drew Brees, QB NO
I was shocked when I saw that only 2 of the 8 DLF rankers had Brees as a top 3 quarterback. I don’t get it. His FLOOR over the last three seasons was 5,162 yards and 39 touchdowns. Only one guy has even made that his ceiling in that time. At 35 years old, he still has at least three more years at that level. How far are we looking into the future here to not have him as a top guy? He’s my #1 QB by a slim margin.

Matt Caraccio

Fantasy MVP: Montee Ball, RB DEN

Peyton Manning historically has played a key role in the success of his running backs. Just ask Edgerrin James, Joseph Addai and Knowshon Moreno how much room they had to run with Manning under center.  When talent meets Manning great things happen. Montee Ball has met Manning and yet he has been widely available in the second round of fantasy football drafts this year.When Montee Ball finishes this season as one of the top five players in fantasy football, many of us might be wondering why we passed on him.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR
With the opportunity to become Cam Newton’s primary receiver, the stage is set for Kelvin Benjamin to take the NFL by storm.  A big, physical receiver, with a large catch radius, Benjamin can dominate in tight coverage. It is not hard to imagine Benjamin recording 80 catches, 900 receiving yards and ten touchdowns.

Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Emmanuel Sanders, WR DEN

Emmanuel Sanders is an overvalued player in dynasty right now.  The presence of Cody Latimer, a player who in my opinion is a superior talent, significantly undermines Sanders long term value. When Wes Welker’s time in Denver is up next year, Peyton Manning will be looking for Demaryius Thomas, Cody Latimer, Julius Thomas and then Emmanuel Sanders.  Sell high on Sanders. 

Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Robert Woods, WR BUF

Robert Woods has the skills to be an excellent number two receiver in this league.  In order for Woods to emerge he needs two things, an elite running mate and a quarterback. The Buffalo Bills addressed the first issue this year when they traded up in the NFL Draft and selected Sammy Watkins. The second issue however may take a bit more time to resolve itself. At 22 years of age, the former USC Trojan was every bit as advertised last season tallying 40 receptions for 587 yards and three touchdowns.  It is far to early to sour on a talent because of organizational missteps. Buy now.

Luke Wetta
Fantasy MVP : Rob Gronkowski, TE NE

Rob Gronkowski plays all 16 games, ends as number one TE and pays off owners who were able to draft Jimmy Graham value in the third or later.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Jordan Matthews, WR PHI

Jordan Matthews as he lands in a great offense for his skill set and needs only a Maclin injury or Riley Cooper being just another guy to be starting and finishing as the top rookie wide receiver.

Most Overvalued Dynasty Player : Giovani Bernard, RB CIN
Giovani Bernard as being taken as top ten overall in dynasty and not looking to even play the roll of “feature” back. Jeremy Hill has been impressive this preseason.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Ben Tate, RB CLE
Ben Tate is clear number one and if he stays healthy will return great value in offense that will need to run and run.
George Kritikos
Fantasy MVP: Julio Jones, WR ATL
Thought about using Jones as the comeback player, but that was too easy. I think he picks up the pace and produces numbers that rival the top receivers. He is one of the only top receivers with continuity in both the personnel around him and the scheme. Add in a suspect defense and the volume will be there for Jones to win fantasy championships.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Johnny Manziel, QB CLE
Not a lot of good looking options here. I think Manziel is going to be the per game scoring leader due to his running ability. He may only start ten games and is likely only for the multi-QB leagues, but Manziel will provide more value than more popular picks like Sammy Watkins or Brandin Cooks.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Alfred Morris, RB WAS
He’s young and been successful but Morris does not sniff the passing game and Jay Gruden is not a smashmouth coach. I have seen him as a third round pick in startup dynasty drafts but he’s more of a sixth rounder given the risk and one-dimensional nature of his game.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Justin Hunter, WR TEN
I am a full round higher than other DLF rankers in the top 100 when it comes to Hunter. Whether it is Jake Locker or Zach Mettenberger, this team can throw the deep ball and Justin Hunter has the ability to be a top 10 receiver. He’s not far from Cordarrelle Patterson in terms of upside but is going 3-4 rounds later.
Jeff Beran
Fantasy MVP : Peyton Manning, QB DEN
Don’t over-think this.  He broke NFL records for passing yardage (5,477) and touchdowns (55) in 2013.  I expect him to at least come close to repeating those numbers in 2014, virtually guaranteeing any fantasy team which owns him a spot in the fantasy playoffs and the best shot at winning the league title.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year : Brandin Cooks, WR NO
Long my favorite rookie in the Class of 2014, I think Cooks will be utilized early and often by the Saints.  Look for a final line of 75 receptions for 1,100 yards and five touchdowns – numbers putting him in the low-end WR2 to high-end WR3 range.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Christine Michael, RB SEA
What’s that? He’s not going to be available in week one because of a hamstring injury? This shouldn’t be very surprising news to anyone who has tracked his career up to this point.  Do yourself a big favor and cash in on his fourth round start-up ADP while you still can.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Matt Ryan, QB ATL
Ryan was well on his way to establishing himself as an elite NFL quarterback until injuries to his offensive line and primary weapons totally decimated his 2013 season.  With arguably the best wide receiver tandem in the league, expect a big time bounce-back season as he eclipses the 5,000 passing yard threshold this year.
So, who are your picks for MVP, ROY, Overvalued and Undervalued players?

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ken kelly