DLF’s Annual Preseason Predictions: Volume One
This is one of our favorite times of the year. After working hard to produce content all off-season, we can finally look forward to the 2014 Fantasy Football season in our beloved dynasty leagues – that means it’s time for our annual fantasy predictions. We gathered some opinions from the DLF Team and compiled this list of predictions for the upcoming fantasy year. The categories were as follows:
Fantasy MVP
Fantasy Rookie of the Year
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player
Fantasy Sleeper
Best Dynasty Buy
Best Dynasty Sell
Fantasy Comeback Player of the YearÂ
We’ll cover the first four categories today and the second set tomorrow. Â Otherwise, this was going to be a 9,000 word novella.
Let’s get to it!
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Ken Kelly
Fantasy MVP:Â Jimmy Graham, TE NO
I gave a lot of consideration to Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning as it’s highly possible all three end the season with the most points from their respective positions. However, the statistical advantage you get when you have Graham is like playing with an extra player every week. The point differential between Graham and everyone else (unless Rob Gronkowski bounces back) is just obscene and simply can’t be overstated.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR
He’s not the most talented or the best rookie long-term, but he’s going to be force fed the ball and have the best chance for immediate production amongst all rookies.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Brandon Marshall, WR CHI
Don’t get me wrong – Marshall is a flat out stud. However, there’s just no way I’d be spending a late first round or early second round pick in a start-up dynasty draft for a receiver of his age with a history of injuries and suspect behavior. While it’s true most of that may be behind him, I’m much more inclined to build around younger players, especially that early in a draft.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Roddy White, WR ATL
If you take his last five games after he was semi-recovered from his early season injury and extrapolated it over a 16-game season, he’d post 138 catches, 1,606 yards and six touchdowns. Now, that’s likely not going to happen and is a bit of wishful thinking, but his demise has been greatly exaggerated and I expect him to perform as a WR1 this season. When you look at drafts, I’d rather have something like Roddy White and Sammy Watkins than Brandon Marshall and Tyler Eifert.
Rob Shandler
Fantasy MVP:Â Demaryius Thomas, WR DEN
Thomas is a physical marvel who can beat a defense in so many different ways.  He is remarkably consistent and is virtually guaranteed favorable matchups and route concepts thanks to Manning’s prowess at the line of scrimmage. With Eric Decker’s departure to New York and Wes Welker already having some serious injury concerns, Thomas should see even more targets from Manning in 2014. Assuming he stays healthy, I see his floor as 95 catches, 1,450 yards, and 13 touchdowns.  Again, that’s his floor.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year:Â Bishop Sankey, RB TEN
Though Sankey won’t be playing the featured role many envisioned in the Titans’ backfield, he will have plenty of opportunity to prove he deserves more touches than the rest. Sankey will get a ton of work on various downs and distances as he proves he is a much more diverse weapon than Shonn Greene or Dexter McCluster.  He may not reach the 1,000 yard rushing milestone, but he easily could reach 45-50 catches in Ken Whisenhunt’s offense.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player:Â T.Y. Hilton, WR IND
Nobody can question his game changing ability as a deep threat in the Colts offense, but the team showed they understand he is more of a complementary weapon by bringing in talented veteran and rookie pass catchers. Hilton will be more valuable to Andrew Luck while creating mismatches on the field than he will be to dynasty owners looking for a consistent WR2.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player:Â Eric Decker, WR NYJ
Very few people expect Decker to have the same kind of successes in New York as he had with Peyton Manning. He will not receive the favorable matchups he did last season playing alongside Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Wes Welker, but it would be foolish to think Decker hasn’t developed under Manning’s tutelage to a point where he can uncover from even the highest quality defensive backs in the NFL. He is a 27-year-old perfectly built WR1 with red zone ability who is guaranteed touches through his hefty salary. Quarterback Geno Smith will be improved enough to support high volume.
Karl Safchick
Fantasy MVP: Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
The MVP is the player who will win you a championship this year. There’s one player being undervalued in dynasty drafts who can win you a championship and his name is Adrian Peterson. Sure he’s 29 years old, but he’s still the most talented running back in the game. This year, Peterson is playing for Norv Turner who will use him creatively.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Sammy Watkins, WR BUF
It’s almost always beneficial to bet on talent above situation. This year, it’s easy to decipher the most talented rookie as wide receiver Sammy Watkins is head and shoulders (not literally) above every other first year player. If still faced with the decision of which rookie to take at 1.01, don’t get cute. Watkins is the most talented receiver to come out of college since the 2011 draft.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR MIN
I’m tempted to quote my overrated player as a position since I’m still seeing people make the mistake of drafting quarterback early in fantasy drafts. I don’t think my DLF brethren will allow me to get away with fence sitting, though. My vote then goes to Cordarrelle Patterson. Not only is Patterson extremely raw, but he’s being drafted as if he’s a known commodity. In our August mock drafts, Patterson was selected in the second round each time.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player:Â Russell Wilson, QB SEA
Everyone is well aware of my long standing confusion of Alfred Morris‘ ADP. While I could go on about how he should be drafted higher, I’m going to give you someone being drafted even later. As I mentioned in the overvalued player section, I think quarterbacks get drafted too highly. If you wait on a quarterback, you need an alternative. Russell Wilson provides just that. Sure, the Seahawks don’t pass a ton, but they will in future years. Wilson is one of the best quarterbacks in the league and will only continue to improve.
Scott Peak
Fantasy MVP: Aaron Rodgers, QB GB
I love Eddie Lacy, but Rodgers is the king of Green Bay. The Packers have a favorable schedule for quarterbacks, especially in weeks 11 to 16. Rodgers will win a lot of titles for fantasy owners this year.Â
Jeff Haverlack
Fantasy MVP: Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
The offense is finally where it needs to be to give AD more space.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Jordan Matthews, WR PHI
The wide open offense combined with his size should provide for a lot of opportunities all over the field.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT
His 2014 schedule is ridiculously tough and I’m not intrigued by his running style.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Marvin Jones, WR CIN
He’s ridiculously athletic and plays across from A.J. Green. Â He’s young, has good wheels and possesses great size. Â I simply can’t believe he’s still flying under the radar.
Rob Leath
Fantasy MVP: LeSean McCoy, RB PHI
An all-purpose back on elite offense with a creative offensive head coach. Â No need to get cute when it comes to the cream of the crop.
Fantasy MVP:Â Matt Forte, RB CHI
James Simpson
Fantasy MVP: LeSean McCoy, RB PHI
He led the league in rushing attempts and rushing yards last year, but it was Jamaal Charles’ receiving statistics that made the difference in fantasy football. McCoy will be more involved in the Philadelphia passing game in 2014 and I think he continues to be the rushing leader. That being said, I wouldn’t argue against either of these two players.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Sammy Watkins, WR BUF
Sometimes it is wise to lower expectations for rookie receivers in their first year because it can take some time to adapt to the NFL. This is not one of those times. Watkins is as pro-ready as they come and is immediately the Bill’s best receiving threat. He will rack up the targets and yards.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR MIN
I love the kid, but when I look through the top 20-30 dynasty players, his name stands out as the most risky, unreliable and inconsistent. Yes, he is capable of the long exciting touchdowns, but can he be relied upon to produce every week? He is too much of a gamble at this point for me.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Arian Foster, RB HOU
One of the kings of consistency when he plays, I don’t believe this is the end for Foster. He’s only 27 years old and can give you two or three more years of top-five production. His preseason absence doesn’t bother me and I think he will be back vying for the top spot this year.
Eric Olinger
Fantasy MVP: LeSean McCoy, RB PHI
As impressive as last year’s stats were, I believe he will do better in 2014. A complete back in a system tailor fit for him.Â
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Kelvin Benjamin,WR CAR
Primed for a big time role on a team desperate for playmakers, Benjamin will have more opportunities than any other rookie to make a big time impact.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Rashad Jennings, RB NYG
I feel like I’ve beaten this dead horse long enough. I’m not a believer in Jennings in short term or long.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Roddy White, WR ATL
People were quick to jump off the bandwagon when he suffered his leg injury last year but he finished 2013 with a vengeance. He has a legitimate 2-3Â years of low end WR1 / high end WR2 numbers left in the tank and he’s being criminally undervalued.
Leo Paciga
Fantasy MVP: Dez Bryant, WR DAL
Everyone is well aware of Bryant’s physical tools and his ability to dominate NFL defensive backs, but I’ll give you three more reasons why 2015 is the year of the “Dez.” First, it’s a contract year for the 25-year old Dallas wide receiver and, like it or not, there’s usually a little extra player motivation whenever an expiring contract is involved. Second, Scott Linehan is an offensive coordinator ripe with experience especially when it comes to handling an elite wide out in an explosive aerial attack. And lastly, the Dallas defense has more holes in it than a “Josh Shaw alibi” and should present plenty of opportunities for late comebacks and fourth quarter garbage points.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR
There are multiple factors which generally prevent rookie wide receivers from making a major splash during their initial seasons in the NFL. They’re so dependent on quarterback play and the speed, focus and precision required at the next level usually overwhelms first year wide outs. That said, I think Kelvin Benjamin will buck the trend and end up posting very good numbers during his rookie season. No, he’s not polished or precise, but he’s built a connection with Cam Newton this summer and he’s a massive target with just enough raw talent to be an offensive star, especially on a team starving for someone to fill that void.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: C.J. Spiller, RB BUF
I’ve been a card carrying member of the C.J. Spiller fan club since he first appeared on the NFL stage back in 2010. Every autumn, I’m held captive by the unbridled breakaway speed and the scintillating combination of vision and balance this former Clemson running back brings to the Buffalo backfield. Well, not this year……and not any longer. I’ve always preached talent over situation when it comes to dynasty fantasy football, but in this instance they’re tough to separate. Head coach Doug Marrone, and more specifically, offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett seem inept when it comes to crafting an offense capable of utilizing speed in open space. Throw in an inexperienced, ineffective quarterback (E.J. Manuel) and the fact that Spiller turns 28 before the start of the 2015 season and you’ve got a dynasty window closing rapidly on a player always on the fringe of “amazing.” By the time a new coaching staff is in place and the quarterback situation is ironed out, Spiller will have exhausted any dynasty value.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Torrey Smith, WR BAL
Is 2014 the year Torrey Smith takes the big step and moves up to the elite wide receiver tier?  He’ll begin his fourth season in the NFL as the focal point of Baltimore’s passing attack. We all know what Torrey Smith brings to the stadium on Sundays – great ball tracking skills and smooth effortless strides which translate into deceptively effective long speed. The question, however, remains…..can Torrey Smith become a dominant wide receiver all over the field? I believe the answer is yes, and with a healthy Dennis Pitta and a crafty veteran like Steve Smith to help draw defensive attention, new OC Gary Kubiak will help elevate Smith’s game to the next level.
Ty Miller
Fantasy MVP: Jamaal Charles, RB KC
Jamaal Charles will repeat as the top dog in fantasy. Â The offensive line woes are overblown in Kansas City, at least when it comes to Charles’ value. Â He does a ton of damage via the passing game, so that’ll offset a weak offensive line. Â I expect his touchdown totals to hit the 12-14 mark, too.
Eric Hardter
Fantasy MVP : Jimmy Graham, TE NO
He won’t be the highest scoring player in fantasy football, but to me value is measured as the advantage gained above the mean. Â Graham, along with tight end cohort Rob Gronkowski, are arguably the two biggest positional mismatches in the game. Â Unlike Gronk, however, Graham rarely if ever misses time, and owners can gain the weekly advantage he provides all year long.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR
This is what happens when talent meets opportunity.  Since I don’t believe any of the rookie running backs are poised to function as this year’s Eddie Lacy, I’ll go with the 2014 version of Keenan Allen instead.  Benjamin is already Cam Newton’s top wide receiver target, and should threaten for over 100 targets in year one.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player : Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT
You can find my expanded thoughts here, but in short there’s no way I’m paying top dollar for an inefficient ball carrier who will have significantly more competition than he did at any point in 2013.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Michael Crabtree, WR SF
A 26-year old potential PPR WR1 going in the fourth round as the overall WR21?  Sign me up.  I predict the “bromance” with Colin Kaepernick will be reignited and a slowly fading defense should bring SF out of the bottom barrel in terms of passing volume.
Jacob Feldman
Matt Caraccio
Fantasy MVP: Montee Ball, RB DEN
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Emmanuel Sanders, WR DEN
Emmanuel Sanders is an overvalued player in dynasty right now.  The presence of Cody Latimer, a player who in my opinion is a superior talent, significantly undermines Sanders long term value. When Wes Welker’s time in Denver is up next year, Peyton Manning will be looking for Demaryius Thomas, Cody Latimer, Julius Thomas and then Emmanuel Sanders.  Sell high on Sanders.Â
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Robert Woods, WR BUF
Robert Woods has the skills to be an excellent number two receiver in this league.  In order for Woods to emerge he needs two things, an elite running mate and a quarterback. The Buffalo Bills addressed the first issue this year when they traded up in the NFL Draft and selected Sammy Watkins. The second issue however may take a bit more time to resolve itself. At 22 years of age, the former USC Trojan was every bit as advertised last season tallying 40 receptions for 587 yards and three touchdowns.  It is far to early to sour on a talent because of organizational missteps. Buy now.
Rob Gronkowski plays all 16 games, ends as number one TE and pays off owners who were able to draft Jimmy Graham value in the third or later.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Jordan Matthews, WR PHI
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player : Giovani Bernard, RB CIN
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