For Whom the Bell Tolls

Eric Hardter Posted On August 24, 2014

bell

As it stands right now on paper, as well as amongst the majority of the dynasty community, the 2013 rookie running back class is one of the best in recent memory. Names like Eddie Lacy, Gio Bernard, Zac Stacy, Le’Veon Bell and Andre Ellington were fantasy viable as first-year players last year, while fellow class-mates Montee Ball and Christine Michael loom large as future contributors. All told these names represent seven of the top-17 dynasty running backs according to the August ADP data, but I’m here to tell you that one of these things is not like the others…

In my opinion, Le’Veon Bell is the most overrated and overpriced running back in dynasty football.

Now as you can tell, I’m not one to mince words. But with a take this strong, I can assure you there are multiple components to my argument. Let’s start from the beginning.

He’s not a “True” Scorer

The following is Bell’s final line from the 2013 season:

bellchart

First things first, I’ll give credit where it’s due. Bell is a plus pass catcher, as evidenced both by his total receptions as well as his yards-per-catch average. However, in my opinion the positives end there.

A whopping 42.3% of Bell’s fantasy points (93) came courtesy of either touchdowns or the point-per-reception. While there’s certainly nothing wrong with a running back who can catch passes and score the ball, this figure is concerning as it relates to Bell’s fantasy floor. Simply put, if the touchdowns and volume (I’ll touch on this later) don’t come, what happens to Bell’s viability?

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To that end, when I released my True Points data (PPR points less points from touchdowns/PPR, divided by total touches) earlier this year I noticed something egregious about Bell’s productivity as it relates to gaining yardage per touch – frankly, it stunk. Amongst the nine “bell-cow” backs (at least 20 touches per week) he had the second lowest True Point value of 0.439, a figure which checked in at #35 when compared to 2013’s PPR Top-50 ball carriers. In the follow-up discussion, I said the following:

“While it’s apparently anathema to speak ill of the young Steeler (if I had a dollar for every time I’ve heard about his bad offensive line I’d be a millionaire), the fact is he was a pure volume/touchdown guy in 2013. Maybe he’ll improve upon that, but if I recall correctly that’s what many said about Trent Richardson last year. Suffice it to say, the warning signs are very real here.”

Now the above is obviously troubling, but at least Bell can count on a repeat of his 2013 usage, right?

It’s My Ball!

The 2013 Steelers possessed one of the league’s largest disparities between total passing yardage and rushing yardage. To put a number on it, Pittsburgh ranked #12 in the league in the former, and #28 in the league with regards to the latter. The rushing volume wasn’t much better, checking in with a rank of #25 as it related to total carries.

The saving grace for Bell was his utter monopolization of running back usage. From week four onward (he missed the first three games of the season), Bell received a whopping 244 of the Steelers’ 311 running back carries, good for 78.5%. This bested the totals of elite, workhorse backs like Jamaal Charles (76.6%) and Marshawn Lynch (75.3%), and tied that of LeSean McCoy.

But what happens if Bell doesn’t receive the same type of positional domination?

The Blount Truth

In 2013, Bell only needed to contend with the likes of Jonathan Dwyer and Felix Jones for rushing volume. Though the aggregate of their stats (3.9 YPC) was incidentally higher than that of Bell, the pair only managed to log 97 combined carries. Perhaps sensing a need for an upgrade at the number-two position, the Steelers signed former Buccaneer castoff turned Patriots darling LeGarrette Blount this off-season.

Best known for his collegiate sucker-punch of Boise State linebacker Byron Hout, Blount has seemingly carried with him a stigma since entering the league in 2010. Despite that he flourished as a rookie undrafted free agent, compiling over 1,000 yards at a clip of 5.0 YPC. Though he received less volume as a sophomore in 2011, Blount still managed nearly 800 yards on 4.2 YPC. Perhaps more importantly, Blount performed these feats on a pair of middling passing offenses (#16 and #17 in total passing yardage), with little to nothing in the way of outside threats.

In 2012, new Bucs coach Greg Schiano buried Blount behind rookie sensation Doug Martin, leading the fantasy community to label him a persona non grata. Though Martin was a revelation as a freshman and Blount slogged his way to 3.7 YPC on limited touches, it’s not as if the latter forgot how to play. To that point, though Blount was effectively castigated by Schiano, should we really have been that concerned about the opinion of a coach who’s currently analyzing games on television?

Patriots head man Bill Belichick clearly didn’t believe so, offering Blount the chance to revive his career in Foxboro. He responded by posting nearly 800 rushing yards at 5.0 YPC, earning Belichick’s trust and functioning as the lead back during New England’s playoff run. The totality of the above ultimately begs the question – why are we so down on the guy?

With a career average of 4.7 YPC, Blount has proven himself a far superior runner to Bell thus far. More importantly, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has stated Blount will see significant usage in the offense, both between the 20’s and at the goal line. Between this, as well as the addition of pass-catching scat-back Dri Archer in the third round of the draft, it’s fair to wonder if the volume and scoring opportunities that were so critical to Bell’s success in 2013 will be replicated?

On the Other Hand

I don’t believe in framing an argument to fit your initial designs, so I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention a few potential mitigating factors. First, Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey returns from injury to anchor the interior of a poor offensive line. Said line will also now be coached by Hall of Famer Mike Munchak, which should, in theory, lead to an upgrade in play. These factors should lead to a better showing from the offense as a whole, and Bell could very well reap the benefits.

Sell Bell

Putting a bow on this, despite the warts he showed as a rookie and the Steelers’ off-season activity, Bell is currently being drafted in the early second round (ADP = 16.3) as the overall RB5. To me, this is a reactionary exaggeration on both the perceived likelihood Bell will continue his ball-hogging ways, as well as his actual skill. To return upon this investment Bell will have to not only increase his subpar efficiency, but also not cede touches and scoring opportunities to Blount and Archer. I don’t see this happening, and if I owned Bell anywhere (I don’t) I would sell now – listen carefully, because the Bell clearly tolls for this overrated ball carrier.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.